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On August 30th, SK Hynix CEO Guo Luzheng stated that the global memory chip shortage is expected to continue until the end of 2030, while the risk of oversupply is low because in the AI era, memory chips are no longer "simply standardized commodities." Despite market concerns about an AI investment bubble, he said he "sees no" signs of oversupply or a potential memory chip downturn, as demand from AI customers remains strong. He added, "If we pass the AI peak, or if another downturn occurs in the future, challenges may arise. But I think the next downturn will be different from the slumps weve experienced in the past few decades. Even if a downturn comes, I dont think it will be a sharp decline, but rather a slow decrease in demand, and it may even stabilize."On August 30th, according to a report by Axios, citing sources familiar with the matter, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, during a secret visit to Moscow earlier this week, proposed a trilateral summit between US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to push for an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sources said that part of Ratcliffes visit was to assess whether the head of Russian intelligence could persuade Putin to return to the US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. This marks Ratcliffes first involvement in diplomatic efforts to achieve a breakthrough in Russia-Ukraine relations. The report stated that US officials briefed Zelenskyy on Ratcliffes talks in Moscow on Friday (August 28th) and the proposal for a trilateral summit between the US, Russia, and Ukraine.Conflict Situation: 1. Israel launches attacks in southern Lebanon. 2. Iran claims to have destroyed a US-Israeli "terrorist group" within its territory. 3. Iranian Army Commander-in-Chief: The enemy failed to achieve its war objectives; Iran has won. 4. Palestinian residents attempting to protect their properties are attacked by Israeli settlers. 5. NBC News team is attacked and beaten with sticks by Israeli settlers in the West Bank. 6. Israel Defense Forces: A Noukba company commander and a Hamas sniper are killed in the Gaza Strip. Strait of Hormuz: 1. Irans Deputy Foreign Minister states there is no rush to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz is "completely closed": all transit vessels have received Iranian permission. 3. Bessant claims 130 million barrels of crude oil are being channeled through the strait; Iranian Parliament Speaker: This is a lie. 4. According to Irans Press TV: Security sources indicate that claims about large quantities of oil being transported through the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz are inconsistent with the actual situation. Claims that the US is transporting oil through the southern Strait of Hormuz are part of a US strategy to lower energy prices. Other matters: 1. Iran says US military bases in the region are only for protecting Israel. 2. US Central Command says approximately 50,000 US troops are deployed in the Middle East. 3. The US military plans to punish the sailors who jumped aboard the USS Lincoln. 4. Iranian media: $7.5 billion in oil revenue has been transferred to the Central Bank of Iran. 5. Qatari and Turkish foreign ministers spoke by phone to discuss easing tensions in the Middle East. 6. Iranian Foreign Minister: US government officials are manipulating the energy market for personal gain. 7. US sanctions against Egyptian banks UAE branch; UAE Central Bank to conduct emergency inspection. 8. Israels National Security Agency: Previously, they urgently "rescued" Netanyahus eldest son from the US. 9. US Embassy in Lebanon: Hezbollah continues to refuse to negotiate with the US and Israel on disarmament. 10. Iranian government statement: Iran pledges to resolutely resist US sanctions; diplomacy and defense are "complementary and inseparable."August 30th - A press conference on the "8.26" mudslide disaster in Gyirong, Tibet, was held today (August 30th) in Gyirong Town. On the morning of August 26th, a mudslide on the Nepalese side caused significant casualties and missing persons at the Gyirong Port in Gyirong County, Shigatse City, Tibet. Analysis indicates that the most prominent risk hindering the disaster response was the landslide dam located above the core area of the border crossing. The dam has already overflowed and is currently in stable condition, with a low probability of a complete collapse.On August 30th, a press conference was held in Gyirong Town, Tibet, regarding the "8.26" mudslide disaster. On the morning of August 26th, a mudslide occurred on the Nepalese side, causing significant casualties and missing persons at the Gyirong Port in Gyirong County, Shigatse City, Tibet. The conference explained that this disaster was caused by glacial instability due to long-term climate warming. The disaster was sudden, with a large peak flow, rapid movement, strong destructive power, and a wide impact area, representing a new and significant characteristic of cryosphere disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and surrounding areas. Monitoring revealed that the ice avalanche took only about 6 to 7 minutes from its occurrence to its impact on the Gyirong Port in my country.

Sellers in GBP/USD reached 1.0800 in anticipation of BOE speakers and US GDP

Alina Haynes

Sep 29, 2022 14:30

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Following a two-day recovery from the record low, the pound to dollar exchange rate has accepted offers to re-establish the intraday low near 1.0800. The cable pair is currently consolidating its highest daily gains since the middle of June during Thursday's Asian session.

 

GBP/USD values have taken a hit as of late due to a combination of factors, including a rise in US Treasury bond yields and skepticism about the Bank of England's (BOE) ability to strengthen the British pound. There may be parallels between China's current pessimism and Europe's persistent energy crisis.

 

Vehicle manufacturing in the United Kingdom rose for the fourth consecutive month in August, according to a data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) distributed by Reuters. However, statistics show that a majority of SMMT members are worried about the future of their company.

 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is yet another central bank that protects the local currency, in this case the yuan, alongside the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Bank of England (BOE). To protect the yuan from a possible economic downturn brought on by covid-led lockdowns, the PBOC has recently intervened in the market multiple times, and is likely to do so again today.

 

A difficulty for GBP/USD traders is the UK government's refusal to replace UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and its maintenance of his heavily criticized budget proposal.

 

To protect the value of the pound, the Bank of England (BOE) announced a bond-buying program on Wednesday (GBP). According to the provided information, the BOE will first purchase bonds with maturities of over 20 years and up to 5 billion pounds per auction. However, the BOE has said that it will begin purchasing on September 28, meaning that the predefined procedure for selling bonds has been postponed until October 31. Even though the Bank of England had planned to spend $5 billion on its emergency QE program, it later revealed that it had been able to spend only £1.02 billion.

 

The U.S. trade deficit with the rest of the world fell from $90.2 billion in July to $87.3 billion in August, a decline of $2.9 billion. The data shows that March marks the first monthly drop in exports since January, while March also marks the fifth consecutive month of falling imports. According to Reuters, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday that a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) in November and a rate hike of 50 bps in December constitute the current baseline assumption. Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has emphasized the importance of addressing inflation and has tried to resume dollar purchases, but has been unable to do so because of falling yields.

 

The final readings of the US GDP for the second quarter, which are expected to confirm a -0.6% annualized figure, and several speakers from the BOE are forthcoming. To that end, if the US data provides strong results and BOE policymakers delay to convince investors, the GBP/USD could fall even more.