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On May 21, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting revealed that staffs outlook on economic activity was slightly stronger than their forecasts at the March meeting. Real GDP growth is expected to be slightly above potential growth in the coming years. The unemployment rate is projected to be close to staffs long-term estimate this year and next, and slightly below that level around 2028. Staffs inflation forecast for this year is higher than at the March meeting, due to the latest data, higher energy prices, and other Middle East conflict effects expected to push up consumer price inflation. Inflation is expected to begin to slow after the first half of this year as the economic impact of various conflict-related factors gradually fades and the transmission of higher tariffs to inflation weakens; inflation is projected to be close to 2% by the end of next year. Overall, the risks to employment and real GDP growth forecasts are skewed to the downside, while the risks to inflation forecasts are skewed to the upside: inflation has been significantly above 2% for the past five years, Middle East conflicts could further push up inflation, and new price pressures are emerging in some categories unrelated to tariffs or energy prices. Therefore, staff consider the possibility of inflation being more persistent than expected a risk worthy of close attention.Trump: (Regarding Iran) We are dealing with rational people.On May 21st, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting revealed that, regarding monetary policy expectations, the Feds head of market operations noted that market expectations still suggest market participants anticipate little change in the target range for the federal funds rate this year, with option prices implying a roughly 30% probability of a rate hike in the first quarter of 2027. In the open market operations survey, the median of the mode path continues to indicate two 25-basis-point rate cuts over the next year, but respondents now expect the cuts to occur later than in the previous survey, anticipating cuts in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.On May 21, the minutes of the Federal Reserves April meeting revealed that administrators updated their assessment of the stability of the U.S. financial system. Overall, financial vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system remain "concerning." Asset valuation pressures are at high levels, with housing valuation metrics near historical highs. Vulnerabilities related to non-financial corporate and household debt were assessed as "moderate." Household balance sheets remain strong, with substantial home equity. While overall corporate debt growth has been relatively moderate in recent years, private lending has grown rapidly. Some private lending facilities experienced net outflows in the first quarter, partly due to market concerns that AI could disrupt business models in certain industries, particularly the software sector, thereby impacting credit quality. Vulnerabilities related to leverage in the financial sector were assessed as "concerning." Hedge fund leverage remains high, particularly in leveraged trading in the U.S. Treasury market. Life insurance companies also maintain high leverage ratios. In contrast, bank regulatory capital ratios remain high relative to historical levels. However, the market capitalization-adjusted bank capital ratio declined in the first quarter and remains below pre-2022 levels, although significantly higher than the lows of several years ago. Bank asset duration has returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating that their interest rate risk exposure has lessened compared to recent years. Vulnerabilities related to funding risk are assessed as "moderate."Trump: We remember Cuba. The indictment of former Cuban President Castro was a very important moment. Cuba is a failed state, and their future is unpredictable.

Sellers in GBP/USD reached 1.0800 in anticipation of BOE speakers and US GDP

Alina Haynes

Sep 29, 2022 14:30

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Following a two-day recovery from the record low, the pound to dollar exchange rate has accepted offers to re-establish the intraday low near 1.0800. The cable pair is currently consolidating its highest daily gains since the middle of June during Thursday's Asian session.

 

GBP/USD values have taken a hit as of late due to a combination of factors, including a rise in US Treasury bond yields and skepticism about the Bank of England's (BOE) ability to strengthen the British pound. There may be parallels between China's current pessimism and Europe's persistent energy crisis.

 

Vehicle manufacturing in the United Kingdom rose for the fourth consecutive month in August, according to a data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) distributed by Reuters. However, statistics show that a majority of SMMT members are worried about the future of their company.

 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is yet another central bank that protects the local currency, in this case the yuan, alongside the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Bank of England (BOE). To protect the yuan from a possible economic downturn brought on by covid-led lockdowns, the PBOC has recently intervened in the market multiple times, and is likely to do so again today.

 

A difficulty for GBP/USD traders is the UK government's refusal to replace UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and its maintenance of his heavily criticized budget proposal.

 

To protect the value of the pound, the Bank of England (BOE) announced a bond-buying program on Wednesday (GBP). According to the provided information, the BOE will first purchase bonds with maturities of over 20 years and up to 5 billion pounds per auction. However, the BOE has said that it will begin purchasing on September 28, meaning that the predefined procedure for selling bonds has been postponed until October 31. Even though the Bank of England had planned to spend $5 billion on its emergency QE program, it later revealed that it had been able to spend only £1.02 billion.

 

The U.S. trade deficit with the rest of the world fell from $90.2 billion in July to $87.3 billion in August, a decline of $2.9 billion. The data shows that March marks the first monthly drop in exports since January, while March also marks the fifth consecutive month of falling imports. According to Reuters, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday that a rate hike of 75 basis points (bps) in November and a rate hike of 50 bps in December constitute the current baseline assumption. Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has emphasized the importance of addressing inflation and has tried to resume dollar purchases, but has been unable to do so because of falling yields.

 

The final readings of the US GDP for the second quarter, which are expected to confirm a -0.6% annualized figure, and several speakers from the BOE are forthcoming. To that end, if the US data provides strong results and BOE policymakers delay to convince investors, the GBP/USD could fall even more.


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