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U.S. National Hurricane Center: Lowell has strengthened slightly.On August 30th, economists predicted that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report, to be released Friday, would show a 55,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls in August, following an unexpected decline in July. If this is the case, the result would be roughly in line with the average monthly increase this year. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Analyst Anna Wong stated that Warshs hawkish speech in Jackson Hole increased the likelihood of a September rate hike and changed market expectations regarding how to interpret next weeks data. The August nonfarm payroll report remains headline data, but the expected weak performance may not be as decisive as usual. Warsh described the labor market as healthy and pointed out that slowing job growth is often a demographic issue rather than a recession.August 30th - According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump spent months touting his move to overthrow Venezuelas leader as bringing the countrys oil "under American control." However, when U.S. energy companies were unwilling to invest at the pace and scale he desired, his administration devised an extraordinary solution to realize his vision—the U.S. government becoming the investor itself. The oil deal with Venezuela announced Friday evening will transform the U.S. governments role from "middleman" in U.S.-funded oil investment in Venezuela to "investor" itself. The agreement will grant Washington a direct financial interest in a private company that will be granted a century-long right to exploit some of the worlds largest proven oil reserves. Led by the controversial Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Bertancott, the company will have the opportunity to develop 17 oil fields estimated to contain 65 billion barrels of crude oil, equivalent to one-fifth of the countrys reserves. According to sources involved in the negotiations, the U.S. plans to hold a 35% passive stake in Bertancotts North American Blue Energy Partnership and have the right of first refusal to purchase 20% of its production at cost.On August 30th, Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodriguez announced further details of the oil agreement with the United States in a televised address to the nation. She stated that the agreement covers 17 prospective oil fields, aiming to achieve a daily production of 1.5 million barrels of crude oil through a 25-year concession. The Venezuelan government hopes to profit from the oil by setting a price of $69 per barrel, ensuring a government profit of $19 per barrel. This also includes a 16% mining royalties and a 34% income tax on the oil companies operating the fields. These revenues are expected to add to the $209 billion in profits announced earlier this week.On August 30th, SK Hynix CEO Guo Luzheng stated that the global memory chip shortage is expected to continue until the end of 2030, while the risk of oversupply is low because in the AI era, memory chips are no longer "simply standardized commodities." Despite market concerns about an AI investment bubble, he said he "sees no" signs of oversupply or a potential memory chip downturn, as demand from AI customers remains strong. He added, "If we pass the AI peak, or if another downturn occurs in the future, challenges may arise. But I think the next downturn will be different from the slumps weve experienced in the past few decades. Even if a downturn comes, I dont think it will be a sharp decline, but rather a slow decrease in demand, and it may even stabilize."

Despite better-than-expected monthly Retail Sales figures, AUD/USD is expected to continue its fall

Daniel Rogers

Sep 28, 2022 14:50

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The AUD/USD pair is expected to fall to about 0.6400 despite the release of weaker-than-expected monthly Retail Sales data. In spite of exceeding predictions of 0.4%, the 0.6% reading for GDP was still below the 1.3% seen in the prior period.

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be encouraged by growing Retail Sales data when inflationary pressures are high and the bank is routinely tightening monetary policy to combat rising prices. That the RBA has already raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 2.35 percentage points should not be lost on investors. For the fourth time this month, the RBA has raised the OCR by 50 basis points.

 

Currently, the US dollar index (DXY) is soaring after upbeat Consumer Confidence numbers were released. U.S. Conference Board stated the index of consumer sentiment rose to 108.0 from 103.6 in their prior survey. Increased optimism among American consumers is good news for the Federal Reserve (Fed) since it suggests robust demand from households. That's good news because it means the Fed can go ahead and pronounce further rate hikes.

 

Future attention will be fixed on Fed head Jerome Powell's public comments. It is expected that Fed policymakers will lay out the likely monetary policy actions that will be taken by the Fed in the first week of November and the middle of December. Seeing as inflationary pressures have not responded to the Fed's current rate of interest rate hikes, Powell will take a "hawkish" stance.