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U.S. National Hurricane Center: Lowell has strengthened slightly.On August 30th, economists predicted that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report, to be released Friday, would show a 55,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls in August, following an unexpected decline in July. If this is the case, the result would be roughly in line with the average monthly increase this year. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. Analyst Anna Wong stated that Warshs hawkish speech in Jackson Hole increased the likelihood of a September rate hike and changed market expectations regarding how to interpret next weeks data. The August nonfarm payroll report remains headline data, but the expected weak performance may not be as decisive as usual. Warsh described the labor market as healthy and pointed out that slowing job growth is often a demographic issue rather than a recession.August 30th - According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump spent months touting his move to overthrow Venezuelas leader as bringing the countrys oil "under American control." However, when U.S. energy companies were unwilling to invest at the pace and scale he desired, his administration devised an extraordinary solution to realize his vision—the U.S. government becoming the investor itself. The oil deal with Venezuela announced Friday evening will transform the U.S. governments role from "middleman" in U.S.-funded oil investment in Venezuela to "investor" itself. The agreement will grant Washington a direct financial interest in a private company that will be granted a century-long right to exploit some of the worlds largest proven oil reserves. Led by the controversial Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Bertancott, the company will have the opportunity to develop 17 oil fields estimated to contain 65 billion barrels of crude oil, equivalent to one-fifth of the countrys reserves. According to sources involved in the negotiations, the U.S. plans to hold a 35% passive stake in Bertancotts North American Blue Energy Partnership and have the right of first refusal to purchase 20% of its production at cost.On August 30th, Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodriguez announced further details of the oil agreement with the United States in a televised address to the nation. She stated that the agreement covers 17 prospective oil fields, aiming to achieve a daily production of 1.5 million barrels of crude oil through a 25-year concession. The Venezuelan government hopes to profit from the oil by setting a price of $69 per barrel, ensuring a government profit of $19 per barrel. This also includes a 16% mining royalties and a 34% income tax on the oil companies operating the fields. These revenues are expected to add to the $209 billion in profits announced earlier this week.On August 30th, SK Hynix CEO Guo Luzheng stated that the global memory chip shortage is expected to continue until the end of 2030, while the risk of oversupply is low because in the AI era, memory chips are no longer "simply standardized commodities." Despite market concerns about an AI investment bubble, he said he "sees no" signs of oversupply or a potential memory chip downturn, as demand from AI customers remains strong. He added, "If we pass the AI peak, or if another downturn occurs in the future, challenges may arise. But I think the next downturn will be different from the slumps weve experienced in the past few decades. Even if a downturn comes, I dont think it will be a sharp decline, but rather a slow decrease in demand, and it may even stabilize."

Prior to the release of UK GDP and US PCE Inflation figures, the GBP/USD has found a temporary resting place near 1.1200

Daniel Rogers

Sep 30, 2022 10:53

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Price action for GBP/USD on Friday's Asian session has seen it range between 1.1160 to 1.1555 as buyers prepare for the first weekly advance in three weeks. As a result, the cable pair is benefiting from the general weakness of the US dollar and the ambiguous outlook on the US dollar before to the release of important data from the UK and the US.

 

In a recent interview, UK Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch said that the chancellor and the Bank of England are "working well" together.

 

As a result, the GBP/USD exchange rate is supported by expectations of a robust rate hike cycle from the Bank of England, or "Old Lady."

 

As a counterpoint, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has remained in the red at around 111.90, snapping a two-week uptrend. By this metric, the Fed's recent strong rhetoric and the widespread recession fears in the face of lowering inflation expectations are not justified by the dollar's performance against the six major currencies. Important for dollar traders today is the August Core PCE Price Index, which is expected to be 4.7% YoY, the same as the previous reading.

 

Final readings of the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) are expected to corroborate initial forecasts of -0.1%, making them important to track.

 

If incoming data verifies the projections, the GBP/USD could pare recent gains, which would be appropriate given the optimistic inflation estimates and fears of a UK economic downturn.

 

A significant break above a two-week-old resistance line, now support around 1.1035, is needed to keep GBP/USD investors upbeat, as is a move above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) surrounding the 1.1200 level. When the RSI reaches the overbought area, it usually means that further gains will be capped.