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Futures May 6 news, the recent weak oil prices, may be due to OPEC + speeding up production is being implemented, short-term weakness may imply that the market obviously lacks confidence and expectations tend to be consistent, in the medium term, US oil in the previous production reduction bottom range under pressure to fall, the medium-term pressure moved down to US $ 6 / barrel, trading may again anchor to supply and demand expectations, under the current OPEC + speed up production expectations, oil prices may still be under pressure, the difference may be the new equilibrium price expectations need to be determined through trading, and what path to achieve a new balance. From the perspective of technical analysis, oil prices fell below the production reduction bottom for many years in the form of a sharp drop and then rebounded to around $ 65 / barrel to form a downward trend again, the weekly level of US oil has shown a break and return to test and downward state, the medium-term weak pattern may be difficult to change, the probability of turning to a band-like decline is higher, and the lower space is open, in the medium term, there is $ 15 / barrel space, the short-term pressure moved down to around $ 60.4 / barrel, the trading end still maintains the idea of shorting at highs in the medium term, short and put options pay attention to protect floating profits.A Reuters poll found that Malaysias central bank will keep its overnight policy rate at 3.00% on May 8, 2024, with 24 of 30 economists holding this view. Malaysias central bank will cut its overnight policy rate to 2.75% by the end of the fourth quarter, down from 3.00% in the April survey.The mayor of Moscow said Russian defense forces shot down five Ukrainian drones flying towards Moscow.On May 6, according to CMEs "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 97.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 69.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 29.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.8%.The regional governor said Ukraines attack on a power station in the Russian city of Rilsk caused power outages.

Price of USD/CHF Nearing New Three-Year High Above 1.0070

Daniel Rogers

Oct 21, 2022 15:09

截屏2022-10-21 上午10.08.56.png 

 

During the Tokyo session, the USD/CHF pair surpassed its immediate barrier at 1.0050 and is set to attempt a three-year high reached on October 13 at 1.0074. The negative market sentiment brought on by late selling in the S&P 500 and rising rates has bolstered the dollar bulls.

 

The 10-year US Treasury yields reached 4.23 percent as a result of a surge in wagers on an anticipated rate hike announcement by the Federal Reserve (Fed). At the time of publication, the US dollar index (DXY) had surpassed the key 113.00 mark.

 

Daily, the asset is trading in a narrow range between 1.0048 and 1.0074 in the direction of the supply zone. The 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are vertically aligned to the north, which confirms the upward filters.

 

Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (14) anticipates a move towards the bullish zone between 60.00 and 80.00. A similar scenario will further strengthen the greenback bulls.

 

If the asset surpasses its peak of 1.0074 on October 13, it will reach a fresh three-year high. The predominant trend is toward the round-number resistance level of 1.0100, followed by the 15 April 2019 peak of 1.0160.

 

Alternatively, the bulls of the Swiss franc may regain control if the asset breaches the September 29 low of 0.9742. This would result in the pair reaching a high of 0.9695 on September 19 and a low of 0.9620 on September 22.

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