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On May 6, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee met with reporters before attending the Executive Council today (6th), and said that he will visit two Middle Eastern countries, Qatar and Kuwait, on May 10. John Lee said that this is his second visit to Middle Eastern countries since he took office. During this visit, he will meet with government representatives from Qatar and Kuwait to strengthen the cooperation model between the two sides and bring more people-to-people exchanges and contacts. For the first time, he will lead more than 50 business people to participate, including more than 30 Hong Kong business people and more than 20 mainland entrepreneurs.On May 6, Anders Persson, chief investment officer and global fixed income director at Nuveen in North Carolina, said, "We are currently neutral on U.S. Treasuries and prefer the front end of the yield curve because I expect this part to be relatively stable for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In the face of policy uncertainty and unclear prospects, we are not willing to make large bets."On May 6, Morgan Stanley published a research report stating that it believes that the share price of AIA (01299.HK) will have a 70% to 80% chance of rising in the next 30 days. The bank said that the groups first quarter performance was better than expected. Due to the expansion of annualized new premiums (APE) and improved profit margins, the group set a new quarterly performance record last year. At a constant exchange rate (CER), the value of new business (VNB) increased by 13%. Morgan Stanley believes that AIA will continue to provide overall healthy double-digit growth for the rest of the year, and the current valuation is still low, so it is quite attractive. It gives it a target price of HK$81 and a rating of overweight.Futures News on May 6: During the May Day holiday, due to the significant increase in production by OPEC+, the market was concerned about oversupply, which led to a weak decline in oil prices. In addition, the market is more concerned about the subsequent third quarter, because some countries that have reduced production have not complied with the production reduction regulations, which will prompt Saudi Arabia and other countries to continue to increase production, which will increase the decline in oil prices. Zhuochuang Information predicts that the next meeting will be in early June. Before that, it is necessary to pay attention to changes in inventory levels and maintain a weak market in the short term. After all, after the increase in production, the market lacks positive factors.Indonesia expects trade deal negotiations with the European Union to be completed in the first half of the year.

Focusing on UK politics and Retail Sales data, GBP/USD sellers probe 1.1200 barrier

Alina Haynes

Oct 21, 2022 15:15

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GBP/USD accepts offers to revisit intraday lows at the 1.1200 support level as traders await Friday morning's UK Retail Sales report. In the face of a stronger US Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury yields, in addition to the pre-data concerns, the political turmoil in Britain weighs on the Cable pair.

 

Liz Truss resigned as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after the shortest tenure in the role. Truss's resignation was largely owing to the dismal economic plans detailed in the "mini-budget" and the British aversion for the same, which generated concerns regarding the return of Boris Johnson as UK prime minister. Notable is that Reuters said, "Britain's sixth prime minister in six years will be nominated by the Conservative Party on October 28.

 

According to the most recent data issued on Friday, GfK Consumer Confidence in the United Kingdom rose to -47 in September from a record low of -49 in August. As evidenced by a study conducted on Friday, Reuters reported that consumer confidence among British consumers remained around a record low this month, with households confronting double-digit inflation, rising interest rates, and political unrest.

 

The UK's headline inflation reached a multi-year high near 10% earlier in the week, increasing the chance that the Bank of England (BOE) may raise interest rates more rapidly/aggressively. Therefore, today's UK Retail Sales, which are expected to increase to -0.5% MoM in September from -1.0% MoM in August, will be crucial for GBP/USD buyers, as a better number could prevent the pair from breaking the immediate key support.

 

Along with aggressive Fedspeak, hawkish Fedbets and multi-year high US Treasury bond yields could weigh on the quote. Additionally, it will be essential to monitor political developments in the United Kingdom for additional impetus.

 

The 10-day simple moving average is accompanied by an upward-sloping trend line from September 28 to limit the immediate GBP/USD decline near 1.1200. Until the price crosses a five-week-old resistance line near 1.1330, however, the pair's buyers remain indifferent.


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