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On May 6, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee met with reporters before attending the Executive Council today (6th), and said that he will visit two Middle Eastern countries, Qatar and Kuwait, on May 10. John Lee said that this is his second visit to Middle Eastern countries since he took office. During this visit, he will meet with government representatives from Qatar and Kuwait to strengthen the cooperation model between the two sides and bring more people-to-people exchanges and contacts. For the first time, he will lead more than 50 business people to participate, including more than 30 Hong Kong business people and more than 20 mainland entrepreneurs.On May 6, Anders Persson, chief investment officer and global fixed income director at Nuveen in North Carolina, said, "We are currently neutral on U.S. Treasuries and prefer the front end of the yield curve because I expect this part to be relatively stable for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In the face of policy uncertainty and unclear prospects, we are not willing to make large bets."On May 6, Morgan Stanley published a research report stating that it believes that the share price of AIA (01299.HK) will have a 70% to 80% chance of rising in the next 30 days. The bank said that the groups first quarter performance was better than expected. Due to the expansion of annualized new premiums (APE) and improved profit margins, the group set a new quarterly performance record last year. At a constant exchange rate (CER), the value of new business (VNB) increased by 13%. Morgan Stanley believes that AIA will continue to provide overall healthy double-digit growth for the rest of the year, and the current valuation is still low, so it is quite attractive. It gives it a target price of HK$81 and a rating of overweight.Futures News on May 6: During the May Day holiday, due to the significant increase in production by OPEC+, the market was concerned about oversupply, which led to a weak decline in oil prices. In addition, the market is more concerned about the subsequent third quarter, because some countries that have reduced production have not complied with the production reduction regulations, which will prompt Saudi Arabia and other countries to continue to increase production, which will increase the decline in oil prices. Zhuochuang Information predicts that the next meeting will be in early June. Before that, it is necessary to pay attention to changes in inventory levels and maintain a weak market in the short term. After all, after the increase in production, the market lacks positive factors.Indonesia expects trade deal negotiations with the European Union to be completed in the first half of the year.

As the US dollar rises from the dead, bears enter the EUR/USD market

Alina Haynes

Oct 20, 2022 15:25

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In Tokyo, the EUR/USD exchange rate is trading at a premium due to a stronger US dollar that has been gaining ground since the middle of the week. Constant political turmoil in the United Kingdom and hawkish monetary policy in the United States have depressed investor sentiment. The euro has risen from a two-week low against the dollar to trade at 0.9765 today.

 

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rocketed to 14-year highs, while the dollar touched another 32-year high against the yen, approaching a level where the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance may intervene, according to some traders. Overall, the markets are uneasy, which is increasing demand for the safe-haven U.S. dollar as traders predict a 75-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve on November 1 and 2, one week before to the Fed's blackout period. In addition, a hike of 50 to 75 basis points is anticipated for December.

 

"Risk sentiment deteriorated overnight. As analysts at ANZ Bank stated, the market's initial relief at the UK's decision to repeal the majority of their mini-budget was replaced with anxiety as the focus returned to the global inflation backdrop and the aggressive rate hikes that will be required to combat an increasingly persistent inflation pulse. In this regard, the outlook for the British economy remains uncertain, which may distract some of the spotlight from the eurozone, which has dominated market focus and negative feedback loops for the majority of 2022. Near the end of September, the euro reached a high of 0.9280 and is in bullish zone as long as it remains above 0.8600. "How the Eurozone performs this winter will be a significant element in determining whether the EUR can gain momentum against the GBP in the coming months," said Rabobank analysts.

 

"We have been pessimistic on GBP for many months, and although there has been a lot of negative news recently, the UK's economic and political outlooks remain too uncertain for us to become bullish on GBP. A few days ago, our three-month forecast of 1.06 seemed more distant. However, we have not yet seen sufficient good news to change this upward.

 

The second estimate of the September Consumer Price Index for the European Union was revised downward to 9.9% YoY, just below the first estimate of 10%. The core inflation rate was confirmed to be 4.8%.

 

In the interim, the net long positions for the euro decreased after reaching their highest levels since early June the previous week. Rabobank analysts noted, "While ECB pronouncements have boosted the chance of future rate hikes in the coming months, concerns are developing about the impact of rising energy costs on the economy (and the burden on Germany's industrial sector in particular)."

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