EUR/USD
1.15514
0.078%
Gold
4202.55
-1.336%
Oil
86.742
-0.697%
USD/JPY
160.361
-0.001%
GBP/USD
1.33897
0.083%
GBP/JPY
214.723
0.083%
Real-time News
On June 10th, Edgar Walker of Metzler Asset Management pointed out in a report that the European Central Banks task is not to respond to every price spike, but to stabilize market expectations and reassure the public that temporary shocks will not be permanently monetized. This puts the central bank in a dilemma. Insufficient action might give the impression that the central bank is treating rising inflation merely as an energy accident; excessive action, on the other hand, would put further pressure on the already fragile European economy. Therefore, the economist added that the right approach is not to provide bold forward guidance, but to maintain credible policy flexibility.On June 10, it was reported that from June 8 to 10, Xian Hui, Vice Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese Peoples Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), led a delegation to Vietnam. She met separately with Tran Cam Tu, member of the Politburo and Permanent Secretary of the Secretariat of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), Bui Thi Minh Hoai, member of the Politburo and Chairwoman of the Central Committee of the Vietnam Fatherland Front, and held talks with Hoang Cong Thuy, Vice Chairwoman of the Vietnam Fatherland Front. Xian Hui stated that recently, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee and President of China, and To Lam, General Secretary of the CPV Central Committee and President of Vietnam, who was visiting China, had in-depth exchanges on overall and strategic issues of common concern, drawing a blueprint for building a higher-level, strategically significant China-Vietnam community with a shared future. China is willing to work with Vietnam, following the strategic guidance of the top leaders of the two parties and countries, to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation and promote the building of a China-Vietnam community with a shared future in a more profound and practical way. The CPPCC is willing to contribute to this endeavor.The UK Maritime Trade Organization has received reports of an incident 88 nautical miles southwest of Balhaf, Yemen. A cargo ship reported that a vessel carrying six armed men approached it, and a firefight ensued before the smaller vessel turned and left.On June 10th, TSMC Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Huang Jen-chao stated in a recent interview that inflation is pushing up the companys operating costs, and indicated that a price increase for chips cannot be ruled out. However, Huang also stated that TSMC will not suddenly raise prices "four or five times."1. US May CPI Data Preview: The US will release its May CPI data at 8:30 PM Beijing time on Wednesday. The market widely expects inflation to rise further, with the overall CPI increasing by 0.5% month-on-month and the year-on-year growth rate rising to 4.2% (the first time it has surpassed 4% since May 2023); the core CPI is expected to rise slightly year-on-year to 2.9%. Significant increases in energy costs and service prices are the main drivers, but with the gradual completion of revisions to previous housing data, the May data may fall short of expectations. 2. Interest Rates and Futures Market Pricing: Gennadiy Goldberg, Head of US Interest Rate Strategy at TD Securities, points out that the combination of strong employment data and high inflation has increased the markets perception that the Federal Reserve is forced to tighten policy. Current futures market pricing indicates that investors expect a full 25 basis point rate hike by the end of the year. 3. Gold Market Faces a Key Test: Analysts point out that international gold prices have corrected by more than 22% since reaching their historical highs, and tonights CPI data will determine the short-term direction of gold prices. If the data meets or exceeds expectations, it will strengthen expectations of accelerating inflation and the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates or even raising rates, putting pressure on gold. If it falls short of expectations, it may boost expectations of interest rate cuts, creating conditions for a gold rebound. 4. Everbright Futures view: Geopolitical events are recurring. On the 9th, the US launched a "self-defense" strike against Iran, but the US stated that it would not interfere with the US-Iran negotiations. Considering the support of energy prices and the low base in the same period last year, the market expects that the US May CPI is likely to exceed 4% year-on-year tonight. Coupled with the resilience shown by the non-farm payroll data last Friday, if the CPI rises higher than expected, the expectation of a hawkish monetary policy will be further increased, and gold may be under pressure in the short term. 5. Founder CIFCO Futures view: It is expected that the US May CPI will increase by 4.3% year-on-year and the core CPI will increase by 0.3% month-on-month. If the data exceeds expectations, it will further exacerbate inflation concerns, pushing the US dollar and US Treasury yields to continue to be strong, while precious metals and industrial commodity prices will continue to be under pressure. If the data meets or falls short of market expectations, it is expected to alleviate market concerns about the Feds interest rate hikes, and gold and silver may have a chance for a phased rebound. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market information such as foreign media, TD Securities, and Founder CIFCO Futures, and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.)
