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September 18th - Nikkei futures extended gains as the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, a move widely expected. The Bank of Japan stated that underlying inflation is approaching its 2% target and that it will closely monitor Middle East conflicts, the yens exchange rate, and demand for artificial intelligence. Investors are now focused on Governor Kazuo Uedas press conference later on Friday for clues about the pace of future rate hikes.Following the Bank of Japans interest rate hike, gains in benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond futures narrowed, with the latest increase being 0.22 yen.On September 18th, Goldman Sachs maintained its year-end gold price forecast of $5,400/oz. Goldman Sachs stated that while the latest US interest rate hike may slow golds rise, it will not change its long-term bullish outlook. In its report, Goldman Sachs expects "the impact of tighter monetary policy to primarily manifest as a slowdown in the short-term appreciation path of gold, rather than a decline in the final gold price"; the continued diversification of reserves by central banks remains the main structural driver for its bullish outlook on gold. Goldman Sachs pointed out that if the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish policy, gold may experience a more significant correction. If the Fed raises interest rates three more times this year and signals further increases in final interest rates, gold prices could fall to around $4,070/oz; however, with central banks continuing to purchase gold to support the market, gold prices are expected to rebound to around $4,200/oz by the end of 2026.On September 18th, Barclays revised its forecast for the Bank of Englands monetary policy, now expecting a 25 basis point rate hike in November. The bank stated that signals from Bank of England policymakers following Thursdays meeting indicated heightened concerns about inflation risks.AirAsia Group co-founder: The Middle East war cannot last much longer.

Gold trading strategy on October 13: Focus on short-term trading opportunities in the day, and activists short rallies

Oct 26, 2021 11:02

On Wednesday (October 13), spot gold rose slightly. In the day, we will pay attention to the short-term trading opportunities brought by the US CPI data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting. It is recommended that activists go short rallies, and conservatives continue to wait and see.


Daily level: Gold prices continue to fluctuate sideways, waiting for important US CPI data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting to guide further directions.

The recent trend of gold prices is drowsy, investors can hardly find the opportunity to enter the market, and the operation is more difficult. But the data in the evening may provide new trading opportunities.

Given the high probability that the Fed’s meeting minutes are likely to be eagle-eyed, if the CPI continues to rise, it may further strengthen the Fed’s expectations of early reduction and interest rate hikes, which will be negative for gold prices.

The European energy crisis intensified in September. Natural gas prices soared by more than 30% that month, and indirectly pushed U.S. oil up by nearly 10%, which may push up the actual inflation data.

Therefore, it is recommended that radicals go short on rallies, and conservatives continue to wait and see.

The initial resistance level above focuses on the 38.2% retracement level of 1764.93, and further attention is paid to the 50% retracement level of 1778.22 and the 61.8% retracement level of 1791.52.

The initial support below focuses on the 23.6% retracement level of 1748.49, and further attention is paid to the low of 1738.12 on September 23 and the low of 1721.76 on September 29.

(Spot gold daily chart)

Resistance levels: 1764.93; 1778.22; 1791.52
Support levels: 1748.49; 1738.12; 1721.76

Short-term operating recommendations: conservatives wait and see, radicals short rallies.

GMT+8 13:41, spot gold was quoted at US$1762.01 per ounce.