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On July 30th, analyst Chris Giles stated that the Bank of Englands various scenario forecasts clearly outline the possible choices for monetary policy in the coming months. Everything will depend on energy price movements. If energy prices remain near current market and futures prices, the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates to control inflation, and the increase could be substantial. If energy prices fall back to the levels seen at the beginning of the month, the Bank of England can continue to gradually lower interest rates. If energy prices only decline slightly, then interest rates are likely to remain unchanged. This policy outlook based on different scenarios is a perfectly reasonable approach for the Bank of England and is similar to the European Central Banks policy framework. In contrast, the Federal Reserve stands out among major central banks globally, deliberately maintaining a high degree of uncertainty in its policy stance.Germanys preliminary July CPI figure will be released in ten minutes.NATO stated that NATO and Poland have activated air and ground defenses in response to the previous incident.A spokesperson for NATOs Supreme Allied Command Europe said that NATO is in close contact with Polish authorities regarding the violation of Polish airspace.July 30th - The Bank of Englands benchmark forecast indicates that as energy price shocks gradually transmit to the overall economy, the UKs annual inflation rate will remain above the 2% target until the fourth quarter of 2027. In a more moderate scenario, the Bank of England expects inflation to fall below the 2% target in the third quarter of next year. However, in a more adverse scenario, the Bank of Englands model shows that inflation could rise above 4% early next year and remain above 2% until 2029. Latest UK data shows that the annual inflation rate fell to 2.6% last month, a larger drop than market expectations.

Look at $82.57 on NYMEX crude oil

Oct 26, 2021 11:03

On Wednesday (October 13), international oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range at a high level. There is concern that soaring coal and natural gas prices in Asia and Europe will stimulate inflation and slow global growth, thereby reducing oil demand. The dollar is near a one-year high, which also put pressure on oil prices.

GMT+8 13:56, NYMEX crude oil futures rose 0.01% to 80.65 US dollars/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 0.05% to 83.46 US dollars/barrel.


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday (October 12) lowered the growth prospects of the United States and other major industrialized countries, and stated that continued supply chain disruptions and price pressures hindered the recovery of the global economy from the new crown epidemic.

The IMF is concerned that the momentum of economic growth has weakened, which has increased the uncertainty in the oil market. However, oil observers still focus on whether the soaring prices of natural gas and coal will lead to an increase in demand for petroleum products for power generation.

An analyst from the Research Department of ANZ Bank said in a research report: "More and more people expect that the high prices of natural gas and thermal coal may boost the demand for alternative fuels such as diesel and fuel oil."

On the daily chart, U.S. oil is in an upward ((3)) wave starting from $61.74, and the upper resistance is looking at the 38.2% target of $88.66. On the hourly chart, oil prices are in five upward waves starting from $74.97, and the upper resistance looks at the 161.8% target of $82.75. Wave 5 is a sub-wave of the upward (1) wave that started at $61.74. (1) Waves are the sub-waves of ((3)) waves.

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