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On February 4th, Lazard CEO Peter Orszag stated at the "Wall Street Journal Invest Live" event that the Federal Reserve may not have cut interest rates at the end of last year. While the market generally believes inflation is declining, he expects inflation to unexpectedly rise this year. He added that artificial intelligence and high-income consumers could boost US economic growth, describing this momentum as "fragile but strong." He also pointed out that most of the impact of tariffs has not yet materialized, which could also push up inflation. He believes the Fed has fallen behind the curve and should not have cut rates at the end of last year. "If we are right," he said, "all of this has only further exacerbated inflation, led to further depreciation of the dollar, and steepened the yield curve."February 4th - During Asian trading hours, the Singapore dollar remained range-bound against the US dollar, but the prospect of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates for an extended period could put pressure on it. Analysts at CIMBs Treasury and Markets Research Department noted in a report that given persistently high inflation, both Federal Reserve Governor Bowman and Richmond Fed President Barkin have signaled that further rate cuts may take longer. The analysts also mentioned that Barkin believes the Feds recent rate cuts have helped support the US labor market. FactSet data shows the US dollar was little changed against the Singapore dollar, trading at 1.2698.On February 4th, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group Office, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that this years No. 1 Central Document makes specific arrangements for "implementing normalized and targeted poverty alleviation," and various supporting policies are being formulated and issued. Han Wenxiu stated that incorporating normalized poverty alleviation into the overall implementation of the rural revitalization strategy requires focusing on dynamic management of assistance recipients, ensuring precise and efficient assistance methods, stratifying assistance regions, and maintaining overall stability in assistance policies. Han Wenxiu emphasized that assistance policies must remain generally stable, avoiding abrupt changes or halts in fiscal investment, financial support, and resource allocation, and maintaining the stability of the scale of normalized central government assistance funds and the scale of provincial and municipal government investments.Goldman Sachs continues to believe there is a significant upside risk to its December 2026 gold price forecast of $5,400/oz.Vietnams Minister of Trade met with executives from Apple (AAPL.O), ExxonMobil (XOM.N), and US liquefied natural gas (LNG) solutions provider Excelerate Energy to discuss potential collaborations.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD hopes to reclaim $1,800 as investors lower their expectations for US inflation

Alina Haynes

Aug 10, 2022 11:29

截屏2022-06-10 下午4.40.17_1024x576.png 

 

After reaching a new monthly high at about $1,800.00 on Tuesday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is now showing a contraction in volatility. On Tuesday, the precious metal made a respectable rise to the north before moving sideways in anticipation of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). According to the street estimates, the inflation rate decreased considerably from the previous announcement by 40 basis points (bps) to 8.7%. The price rise index, however, is very likely to make an unexpected shift.

 

The investment community is aware that rising oil prices continued to be the key factor pushing up price pressures. Now, concerns about fixed supply and a bleak demand forecast on the oil front have caused an even greater decline in oil prices. The inflation rate will also show the multiplier effect.

 

Additionally, the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data from last week suggests that the inflation rate may climb more than expected. In contrast to the 372k jobs added in June, the US economy added 528k new employment in July. Well, until the dust settles for a longer period of time, officials at the Federal Reserve (Fed) will still have a difficult task.

 

Following a robust recovery from the lower part of the Rising Channel at roughly $1,765.00, gold prices are currently rising quickly. The upper part of the aforementioned chart pattern is drawn from the high of July 22 at $1,739.37, and the lower part is drawn from the low of July 27 at $1,711.55.

 

The upside filters are strengthened by the scaling higher of the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1,785.15 and $1,772.00, respectively. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has moved into the bullish zone of 60.00-80.00, indicating further gains are still to come.


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