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According to Nikkei: Japan and the European Union have drawn up an agreement on a satellite network plan.Slovak Prime Minister: We aim to reach an agreement with EU partners on stopping Russian gas supplies and sanctions package by Tuesday.July 12, Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said that as the US government reaches an agreement with trading partners such as Japan and South Korea in the coming weeks, most investors seem to expect the United States to avoid raising tariffs. "This is the expectation that the market has formed," Saglimbene said. "If we dont get such an outcome, then I think if the White House does implement some aggressive tariff measures, the market volatility in the short term may increase."Ukraine said Russia launched 623 drones and missiles during the night.July 12, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal on the 11th, US President Trump hinted that if Iran seeks to develop nuclear weapons, he will support Israel in launching a new round of strikes against Iran. According to reports, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recently privately informed Trump that if Iran resumes the development of nuclear weapons, Israel will launch further military strikes against Iran. Trump responded that he was inclined to reach a diplomatic settlement with Iran, that is, to reach an agreement on the nuclear issue, but he did not oppose Israels plan. The report also stated that a senior Israeli official revealed that Israel would not necessarily seek explicit approval from the United States on the issue of resuming strikes against Iran. However, considering that the United States seeks to maintain diplomatic ties with Iran, Israel may also face resistance from the United States.

Forecast for the price of gold: Pre-NFP trade slowdown around $1,790 according to XAU/USD

Alina Haynes

Aug 05, 2022 15:08

 截屏2022-08-04 下午5.25.46_1024x576.png

 

As traders exhibit the normal concern ahead of the important US employment data on Friday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) seesaws near the monthly peak. Despite this, the price of yellow metal fluctuates between $1,788 and $1,791 as of the morning of the press in Europe.

 

The market's conflicting fears about the global recession and the most recent geopolitical stories affecting Taiwan, in addition to the pre-NFP caution, further contribute to the XAU/USD's movement. It's important to note that the options market sends conflicting signals and presents difficulties for gold purchasers.

 

The recent increase in US Treasury rates has helped to strengthen the US currency and put downward pressure on the price of gold, but it also seems to have lessened concerns about a global economic downturn.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a two-day slump and registers modest gains at 106.00. The dollar index declined during the previous two days before consolidating recent losses by monitoring the yields. It's important to note that after falling during the previous two days, the US 10-year Treasury rates have stabilized at roughly 2.069 percent. The disparity between the coupons for 10-year and 2-year bonds is still the largest it has been since 2000, yet US Treasury rates have continued to show the possibility of a recession.

 

Geopolitical issues from the Taiwan Strait are also a problem for gold purchasers elsewhere, as China expresses its displeasure with Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, visiting Taipei. According to West Official, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently stated at an East Asia meeting that China's response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan had been "flagrantly aggressive."

 

In terms of the options market's attitude, a one-month risk reversal (RR) of gold prices ends a three-week downturn when seen weekly, but if observed daily, it causes a third straight day of decline. It should be mentioned that the risk reversal term refers to the spread between bullish and bearish bets, namely the call options and put options (RR).

 

In conclusion, gold prices are still stable, but the bad news outweighs the good news, therefore today's US employment data for July will be important for the short-term outlook. The US dollar's recovery may continue and impact on gold prices if the employment numbers look to be higher than expected.


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