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February 7th - This morning (February 7th), the Shanghai Municipal Peoples Government held a press conference. Yang Jiaying, Director of the Shanghai Municipal Human Resources and Social Security Bureau, stated that employment is a top priority for peoples livelihood. The bureau is making every effort to promote employment for college graduates and other young people. Shanghai is the top choice for many young students to pursue their dreams. We are strengthening policy support and implementing a comprehensive employment service campaign tailored to the characteristics of this youth group. We are fully leveraging the synergistic effect of "One Station (the first stop for employment in Shanghai), One Circle (a 15-minute employment service circle), and One Action (the Employment in Shanghai Plus Action)" to increase employment assistance for young people.February 7th - U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Walz stated that the United States will pay part of the billions of dollars in arrears owed to the UN within weeks, while emphasizing the need for continued UN reform. This comes after UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of the UNs financial situation, stating that the UN faces the risk of "imminent financial collapse" due to member states unpaid dues. In a telephone interview, Walz said the first payment would be seen soon, and while the final amount has not yet been determined, he believes it will be finalized within weeks.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially determined that a 3.2-magnitude earthquake occurred in Tengchong City, Baoshan City, Yunnan Province at 12:00 on February 7, with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.On February 7th, CNN reported that US President Trump claimed that renaming Pennsylvania Station in New York City as "Trump Station" was a proposal by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Schumer quickly refuted this claim. "Schumer suggested to me that Pennsylvania Station be renamed Trump Station," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One, adding that many people, including union members, Democrats, and Republicans, had made the suggestion, "but theres been no progress." Schumer immediately refuted Trumps claim, accusing him of lying about the details of their conversation. "Completely a lie," Schumer posted on social media platform X. "He knows it. Everyone knows it. Only one person can restart this project, and he can do it easily."February 7 – The World Health Organization (WHO) reported on February 6 that Bangladesh had one case of Nipah virus infection, with no other related cases identified. According to a WHO press release that day, the infected person is a woman aged 40 to 50 living in the Rajshahi district of Bangladesh. She developed fever and neurological symptoms on January 21 and was diagnosed with Nipah virus on January 29. Bangladeshi authorities notified the WHO on February 3. The woman had no recent travel history but had consumed raw date juice. Her 35 close contacts tested negative for Nipah virus.

Forecast for the price of gold: Pre-NFP trade slowdown around $1,790 according to XAU/USD

Alina Haynes

Aug 05, 2022 15:08

 截屏2022-08-04 下午5.25.46_1024x576.png

 

As traders exhibit the normal concern ahead of the important US employment data on Friday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) seesaws near the monthly peak. Despite this, the price of yellow metal fluctuates between $1,788 and $1,791 as of the morning of the press in Europe.

 

The market's conflicting fears about the global recession and the most recent geopolitical stories affecting Taiwan, in addition to the pre-NFP caution, further contribute to the XAU/USD's movement. It's important to note that the options market sends conflicting signals and presents difficulties for gold purchasers.

 

The recent increase in US Treasury rates has helped to strengthen the US currency and put downward pressure on the price of gold, but it also seems to have lessened concerns about a global economic downturn.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a two-day slump and registers modest gains at 106.00. The dollar index declined during the previous two days before consolidating recent losses by monitoring the yields. It's important to note that after falling during the previous two days, the US 10-year Treasury rates have stabilized at roughly 2.069 percent. The disparity between the coupons for 10-year and 2-year bonds is still the largest it has been since 2000, yet US Treasury rates have continued to show the possibility of a recession.

 

Geopolitical issues from the Taiwan Strait are also a problem for gold purchasers elsewhere, as China expresses its displeasure with Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, visiting Taipei. According to West Official, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently stated at an East Asia meeting that China's response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan had been "flagrantly aggressive."

 

In terms of the options market's attitude, a one-month risk reversal (RR) of gold prices ends a three-week downturn when seen weekly, but if observed daily, it causes a third straight day of decline. It should be mentioned that the risk reversal term refers to the spread between bullish and bearish bets, namely the call options and put options (RR).

 

In conclusion, gold prices are still stable, but the bad news outweighs the good news, therefore today's US employment data for July will be important for the short-term outlook. The US dollar's recovery may continue and impact on gold prices if the employment numbers look to be higher than expected.


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