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On September 6th, according to a Morgan Stanley research report, Microsoft (MSFT.O) announced a broad restructuring of its external reporting structure, effective in fiscal year 2027. The three historical operating segments—Productivity & Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing—will be merged into two new segments: "Agents and Infra" and "Devices and Consumer," aiming to align with increasingly integrated cloud + AI internal management practices. The bank believes this adjustment is primarily an accounting reclassification and does not change the underlying economics. Changes in the definitions of Azure and Microsoft 365 are mechanical adjustments, and the bank maintains its assessment that Azure will accelerate in the first half of 2027 compared to the second half of 2026, and that Microsoft 365 commercial cloud growth will accelerate in fiscal year 2027. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley reiterated its "Overweight" rating on Microsoft with a target price of $600.On September 6, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported that the public relations department of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement saying that the IRGC Air Force launched multiple ballistic missiles, striking a US aircraft carrier and a destroyer. The targeted US warships were involved in the naval blockade of Iran and interfered with Iranian vessels. The statement said that both US warships were forced to withdraw from the conflict zone after suffering damage.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.7 earthquake occurred at 10:29 on September 6 in Wuqia County, Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang (40.00 degrees north latitude, 75.75 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 20 kilometers.September 6th - The recent US military strikes against Iran, which Iran retaliated against, have led to a rise in international oil prices. On September 4th, local time, Virgin Atlantic founder Richard Branson stated in an interview in the UK that the conflict with Iran is completely unnecessary, as it will only push up oil prices, increase costs for airlines and consumers, and contribute to inflation.On September 6th, TankerTrackers reported on Saturday that Iraqs oil exports in August fell by 36% compared to pre-war levels, making it one of the Middle Eastern oil-producing countries with the largest decline in exports. The comparison is based on export levels in January and February before the conflict. Iran saw the largest drop, with crude oil exports plummeting by 100%. Qatar and Saudi Arabia followed closely, both experiencing a 48% decline in exports. Kuwaits crude oil exports also fell by 36% in August, matching Iraqs decline, placing these two countries tied for third place among those tracked by TankerTrackers. The UAE saw the smallest decline, with crude oil exports falling by only 0.02% compared to pre-war levels.

Forecast for the price of gold: Pre-NFP trade slowdown around $1,790 according to XAU/USD

Alina Haynes

Aug 05, 2022 15:08

 截屏2022-08-04 下午5.25.46_1024x576.png

 

As traders exhibit the normal concern ahead of the important US employment data on Friday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) seesaws near the monthly peak. Despite this, the price of yellow metal fluctuates between $1,788 and $1,791 as of the morning of the press in Europe.

 

The market's conflicting fears about the global recession and the most recent geopolitical stories affecting Taiwan, in addition to the pre-NFP caution, further contribute to the XAU/USD's movement. It's important to note that the options market sends conflicting signals and presents difficulties for gold purchasers.

 

The recent increase in US Treasury rates has helped to strengthen the US currency and put downward pressure on the price of gold, but it also seems to have lessened concerns about a global economic downturn.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a two-day slump and registers modest gains at 106.00. The dollar index declined during the previous two days before consolidating recent losses by monitoring the yields. It's important to note that after falling during the previous two days, the US 10-year Treasury rates have stabilized at roughly 2.069 percent. The disparity between the coupons for 10-year and 2-year bonds is still the largest it has been since 2000, yet US Treasury rates have continued to show the possibility of a recession.

 

Geopolitical issues from the Taiwan Strait are also a problem for gold purchasers elsewhere, as China expresses its displeasure with Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, visiting Taipei. According to West Official, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently stated at an East Asia meeting that China's response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan had been "flagrantly aggressive."

 

In terms of the options market's attitude, a one-month risk reversal (RR) of gold prices ends a three-week downturn when seen weekly, but if observed daily, it causes a third straight day of decline. It should be mentioned that the risk reversal term refers to the spread between bullish and bearish bets, namely the call options and put options (RR).

 

In conclusion, gold prices are still stable, but the bad news outweighs the good news, therefore today's US employment data for July will be important for the short-term outlook. The US dollar's recovery may continue and impact on gold prices if the employment numbers look to be higher than expected.


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