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On January 19th, according to foreign media reports, international crude oil futures fell as the possibility of a US attack on Iran leading to supply disruptions decreased, while the market closely watched the US tariff threats over Greenland. As of 21:58 Beijing time, the March Brent crude oil futures contract fell $0.37, or 0.58%, to $63.76 per barrel. The US crude oil futures contract fell $0.28, or 0.47%, to $59.16 per barrel. Rystad analyst Janiv Shah said, "With the rumors of a US attack fading over the past few days, the market is now focused on the situation in Greenland and the extent of the potential serious consequences between the US and Europe, as any escalation of the trade war could impact demand." PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans said the market also faces the risk of damage to Russian infrastructure and distillate supplies, as forecasts of colder weather in North America and Europe, coupled with concerns about Iran, are making the market uneasy.The Syrian Democratic Forces, led by the Kurds, say that the Shadadi prison is currently outside their control.Indian Foreign Secretary: India and Afghanistan aim to double bilateral trade to $200 billion by 2032.According to Reuters calculations, Russias oil and gas revenues are expected to fall to 420 billion rubles in January due to weak oil prices and a stronger ruble.French Finance Minister: The best way to prevent the threat from becoming a reality is to demonstrate that the EU is prepared to respond strongly.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAUUSD advances to the backside of the bull micro trend

Alina Haynes

Nov 15, 2022 16:49

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Despite a stronger US Dollar, the Gold price reached a new three-month high on Monday as US yields rose in response to Friday's disappointing US Consumer Price Index report. Friday's inflation figures prompted speculators to anticipate that the Federal Reserve would hold off on large interest rate hikes. As a result, demand for gold remains strong.

 

In spite of a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting, in which Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against the market's reaction to a dovish announcement by suggesting that the terminal rate could be higher than initially anticipated, commodities prices have been staging a rebound from their year-to-date lows. A number of factors contribute to the shift in opinion, including rumors that China will relax its zero-Covid restrictions. Due to a recent string of less inflationary US data outcomes, it had been speculated that a Fed policy shift was imminent.

 

US consumer prices grew 0.4% for the month of October and 7.7% year-over-year, as reported on Friday. This was down from 8.2% year-over-year in September and 0.2 percentage points below the consensus, with the ex-food and energy estimate coming in at 6.3%. This was a positive report, and the market's response included a 5.5% increase in the S&P 500 and a 26 basis point drop in the 2-year Treasury rate, which sent gold soaring and the dollar plummeting. Gold traders were already focused on the increase in money managers' short positions over the past few months, which led to significant short covering above the $1,720 resistance level.


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