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January 30 - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on January 29 that the ceasefire agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine regarding energy infrastructure would take effect on the night of January 29.January 30th - A depreciating dollar could cause trouble for Trump and the Federal Reserve. A significant depreciation of the dollar could put the US at risk of effectively "importing" inflation. Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, wrote, "Trumps disregard for the dollar could backfire, undermining his economic plans and causing Republicans to lose their majority in the House." On Wednesday, Powell stated that the Fed would not discuss the dollar, adding that "the Treasury is the one that regulates the currency." Ironically, however, if inflation worsens, it might be the Feds actions that help defend the dollar. Further inflation caused by a continued dollar depreciation could prevent the Fed from lowering interest rates as Trump desires, and could even lead to rate hikes.On January 30th, the Japanese government released data on the 29th showing that, driven by soaring rice prices in the domestic market, Japans private rice imports in 2025 are projected to increase more than 90 times compared to the previous year. Data from the Ministry of Finance shows that private rice imports in Japan last year reached approximately 96,800 tons, the highest since comparable data became available in 2000, roughly 95 times the import volume in 2024. The largest source of rice imports was the United States, accounting for nearly 80%. By month, July saw the highest import volume, exceeding 26,000 tons. Over the past year, Japanese rice prices have surged, repeatedly breaking records. Data from Japanese supermarket rice price monitoring shows that in the week ending January 18th, the average price of a 5kg bag of rice was 4,283 yen (approximately 194 yuan), exceeding the previous weeks average price and remaining above 4,000 yen (181 yuan) for 20 consecutive weeks.January 30th - An explosion occurred at the Tupraş Izmit oil refinery in Kocaeli Province, northwestern Turkey, on the evening of January 29th local time. The explosion took place in a gasoline storage tank area of the refinery, subsequently triggering a large fire. Thick smoke billowed from the scene, flames were visible several kilometers away, and strong tremors were felt, causing panic among local residents. Following the incident, the refinery immediately activated its emergency response plan. For safety reasons, a large number of refinery employees were evacuated. Currently, local fire and safety rescue teams are working to extinguish the fire, and the situation remains under control.January 30th - According to sources in Israel, as US President Trump "is about to make a decision on action against Iran," Israeli security agencies have recently significantly enhanced their defensive and offensive preparedness, closely monitoring regional developments and focusing on how to provide timely warnings to the public in the event of an Iranian attack. On the same day, senior IDF officials and security officials held their weekly situation assessment meeting, with the Iranian issue being a key focus of discussion. Israeli security officials stated that, given President Trumps recent statements and the increased US military presence in the Middle East, the US appears unwilling to allow the status quo regarding Iran to continue. Israel believes Trump may seek larger-scale action, and the Pentagon has developed related plans, with US Central Command continuing to increase troop deployments to the Middle East. An Israeli official stated that the US and Israeli militaries are maintaining coordination.

Gold Price Prediction: XAUUSD pulls back toward $1,750 ahead of Biden-Xi talks, and the Fed's pivot is anticipated

Daniel Rogers

Nov 14, 2022 18:42

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During Monday's Asian session, the gold price (XAUUSD) consolidates the largest weekly gains since March 2020 near $1,762. In doing so, the precious metal records modest losses within a bullish chart pattern that is one week old.

 

Notably, the light schedule appears to have prompted the XAUUSD retreat near the highest levels in three months. Anxiety ahead of a meeting between US President Joe Biden and China's Prime Minister Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Group of 20 Nations (G20) summit in Bali is also likely to have prompted the gold buyers to be questioned.

 

Christopher Waller, governor of the Federal Reserve, attempted to defend the bulls by stating, "Rates will not fall until there is 'clear, strong evidence' that inflation is falling."

 

Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures retreat from a one-month high, falling 0.30 percent intraday near 3,990, while US 10-year Treasury yields rise six basis points (bps) to 3.89%, recording their first daily gain in four days.

 

As the market attitude deteriorates, updates from Bali can provide amusement for XAUUSD traders. Any spark in China's relations with its global counterpart, as a result of China's support for Russia, should exert additional downward pressure on gold. However, the previous week's discussions of the Fed's easy rate hikes in December, coupled with the disappointing US consumer-centric data, appear to keep gold buyers optimistic.