EUR/USD
1.14677
0.138%
Gold
4843.55
0.523%
Oil
98.503
-0.363%
USD/JPY
159.782
-0.046%
GBP/USD
1.32699
0.102%
GBP/JPY
212.032
0.116%
Real-time News
On March 19th, a research report from CICC stated that the Federal Reserves decision to maintain interest rates at its March meeting was in line with market expectations. The dot plot and economic forecasts indicate upward revisions to inflation expectations and a narrowing of the room for rate cuts, suggesting a cautious overall policy stance. Although Powell believes the uncertainty surrounding oil price shocks is significant and the economy remains resilient, we believe the actual situation is more complex. Tariffs and immigration policies have already constrained supply, and coupled with the oil price shock, the US economy is entering a "stagflation-like" phase. Simultaneously, private lending risks are emerging, and financial conditions may tighten spontaneously. Against this backdrop, the Fed may remain on hold in the short term due to inflation stickiness; in the medium term, as demand weakens or financial risks escalate, policy will face pressure to passively shift towards rate cuts. We expect the Fed to maintain interest rates unchanged in the first half of the year, with a resumption of rate cuts postponed until the second half. However, if rate cuts are a passive response to a deteriorating economic or financial environment, it will be difficult to boost market risk appetite.Market news: HSBC is considering large-scale layoffs in a multi-year restructuring driven by artificial intelligence.Samsung Electronics shares fell 4%, and SK Hynix shares fell 4.2%.According to the Wall Street Journal, sources say India has purchased more than 30 million barrels of unsold Russian oil. More deals are expected soon.March 19 (Futures News) – According to foreign media reports, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures closed higher on Wednesday, with the benchmark contract rising by about 2%, mainly reflecting the strength of Brent crude oil futures and the potential reduction in U.S. corn planting area this spring. A research report released by Bank of America indicates that the agricultural futures market has not yet fully felt the full impact of the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz. The ripple effect caused by the sharp fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices has begun to transmit to the cost side of agricultural inputs such as fertilizers and fuels. If fertilizer prices remain high and supply tightens, the expected yield of major crops such as U.S. corn may face severe challenges. According to a survey of farmers conducted by Allendale, the U.S. corn planting area this year is expected to be approximately 93.68 million acres, a decrease of 5.12 million acres from last year, and also lower than the 94 million acres predicted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture at a forum last month.
