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Joerg Kraemer, economist at Commerzbank: The recent strengthening of the euro, especially against the US dollar, is likely to continue in the coming months, which will reduce the price competitiveness of European products on the world market.Conflict Details: 1. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian forces occupied Komishuvakha in eastern Ukraine. 2. The Ukrainian military said it attacked oil refineries in Krasnodar and Syzran at night. 3. The Ukrainian Air Force said Russia launched 537 drones and 45 missiles during the nighttime attacks. 4. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russia attacked Ukrainian businesses, rocket and aviation facilities, and military airfields at night. 5. The regional governor stated that Russias attack on Zaporizhia, Ukraine, resulted in one death and at least 24 injuries. 6. Russian Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov: Russian forces are continuing their offensive along all fronts, and the task of establishing a buffer zone along the border between the Ukrainian Sumy and Kharkiv regions is progressing smoothly. 7. Russia and Ukraine are engaged in fierce battles over the key cities of Krasnodar (also known as Pokrovsk in Ukraine) and Konstantinovka in the Donetsk region. Other Developments: 1. Hungarian Foreign Minister: The European Commission has become a "Ukrainian Commission," representing the interests of Ukraine, not those of an EU member state. 2. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kallas stated that the return of frozen Russian assets to Russia is unthinkable unless Russia pays war reparations for Ukraine. 3. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Moscow exploited the lead-up to the summit to launch the attack and called for energy and banking sanctions. 4. Russian Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov stated that Russia controls 99.7% of Ukraines Luhansk region, 79% of the Donetsk region, 74% of the Zaporizhia region, and 76% of the Kherson region. 5. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kallas stated that EU countries have been asked to submit proposals for new sanctions against Russia next week.On August 31, officials of the Yemeni Houthi armed forces issued a statement saying that the group is ready to confront Israel after Israel launched an airstrike in Sanaa on Thursday, killing a senior official.On August 30th, local time, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto stated after the EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Copenhagen that the EU and most of its member states are not interested in achieving peace and will continue to provide funding and arm Ukraine. The European Commission is acting as a "Ukrainian Commission," representing Ukraines interests rather than those of EU member states.On August 30, Russia and Ukraine engaged in a fierce battle over the Donetsk regions key cities of Krasnaya Zvezda (known as Pokrovsk in Ukraine) and Konstantinovka on August 29. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video on the 29th claiming Russian forces used Grad rockets to strike Ukrainian positions in the direction of Krasnaya Zvezda. The Russian news agency TASS also released a video claiming Russian forces launched strikes against Ukrainian targets near Konstantinovka.

AUD/JPY remains around 95.00, and a greater policy difference between the RBA and BOJ is likely

Alina Haynes

Sep 02, 2022 14:46

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The Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate has been volatile during the Tokyo trading session, moving in a slightly wider range of 94.77-95.20. In the meantime, investors have been watching the asset's price closely ahead of next week's monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The cross has shown a sideways auction over the previous two trading sessions despite the issuance of a dismal Caixin Manufacturing PMI.

 

Following a downward revision, economic indicators now stand at 49.5, which is lower than both the prior report of 50.4 and the consensus expectation of 50.2. Fears of a recession have been exacerbated by the Chinese government's lockdown restrictions in the face of a rebound in Covid-19 cases.

 

As China's largest trading partner, Australia could feel the effects of China's weak economic performance if the latter continues to struggle.

 

Policy divergence between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan could widen after next week's RBA interest rate announcement (BOJ). RBA Governor Philip Lowe is expected to announce a fourth consecutive 50 basis point rate hike in light of mounting inflationary pressures in the Australian economy (bps). To account for this possibility, the OCR will go up to 2.35 percent.

 

In the meantime, the weak yen is causing rising import prices in Japan. The private sector faces headwinds from expensive inputs, which significantly impact margins. Positive Retail Trade figures this week did not help the Japanese yen. Compared to the predicted 1.9% and the prior announcement of 1.5%, annual retail sales jumped dramatically to 2.4%.

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