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US President Trump: I think we are closer to our goal (reaching a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine) than ever before.On December 16th, the FBI announced the arrest of four suspects on December 15th for plotting bomb attacks at multiple locations in California on New Years Eve. FBI Director Cash Patel posted on social media that the FBI thwarted a "credible and imminent terrorist threat" and arrested four individuals with ties to the Los Angeles area. These individuals identified themselves as members of a radical wing of the far-left group "Turtle Island Liberation Front" and are suspected of planning attacks using improvised explosive devices at five different locations in the Los Angeles area on New Years Eve. "Turtle Island" is an English name for North America.On December 16th, the Argentine government of President Millai announced adjustments to its monetary policy, stating it would begin an initiative to accumulate its depleted foreign exchange reserves. This represents a step closer to the free-floating exchange rate that investors have long desired. Starting in 2026, the pesos trading band will expand at the same rate as monthly inflation, instead of the current 1%. Novembers price increases of 2.5% mean that the trading band could expand at more than twice the current rate in the short term. The central bank stated on Monday that it will also begin accumulating reserves, with a base case scenario target of purchasing $10 billion next year, the specific amount potentially increasing based on currency demand. Following this news, Argentine sovereign bonds surged across the board. The more liquid bonds maturing in 2035 rose by more than 1 cent, reaching nearly 73 cents.On December 16th, local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and German Chancellor André Merz held a joint press conference in Berlin. Zelensky stated that the US delegation did not make any demands on Ukraine regarding territorial concessions, but merely conveyed Russias position. Regarding the question of whether the US demanded Ukraine withdraw from the Donetsk region, Zelensky said: "I dont think the US made any demands. I believe we are strategic partners. Therefore, I would put it this way: we have heard statements from the US regarding Russian territorial claims or demands. We consider these to be Russian demands." He also stated that Ukraine had conveyed its position to the US.Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) has completed production of its first F-16 Block 70 fleet, delivering them to Bulgaria and Slovakia.

USD/JPY is trading near 141.00, which would signal a return to levels not seen in 24 years

Daniel Rogers

Sep 05, 2022 16:30

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The US dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate is getting closer to last week's 24-year high of 140.80. In the wake of the US dollar index (DXY) hitting a fresh 20-year high of 110.03, the asset is gaining a great deal of momentum. The DXY has been trading at high levels and is expected to continue its upward trend.

 

The DXY has risen to prominence on currency markets as optimism about US employment data (as measured by Nonfarm Payrolls or NFP) has persisted over the previous week. The Fed's satisfaction with the US economy's August job gains is boosting the asset's value (Fed). Even though pricing pressures are having a significant influence on household income, recent depletion signals are not sufficient to persuade consumers to raise their spending habit (quantity-wise). Therefore, higher employment creation will encourage Fed policymakers to sound hawkish without hesitation.

 

Future attention will center on the release of the US ISM Services PMI. As the US economy is recognized for its IT giants and its offering of IT services to emerging nations, the value of the US Services PMI is unusually high. From 56.7, economists expect the economy to slow to 54.9. This may put an end to the DXY's dream rally, and the asset may encounter considerable challenges.

 

Due to the holiday on Monday, the US markets won't be trading, thus the asset's movement will be determined largely by market sentiment.

 

Investors are waiting for Tokyo to release secondary economic statistics on Monday. There is consensus that the Jibun Bank Services PMI will hold steady at 49.2. Although the release of Japan's GDP figures will continue to be a major forthcoming event. The GDP is forecast to increase to 0.7% from 0.5% in the third quarter. The annualized figure, at 2.9%, is much higher than the 2.2% that was previously reported.