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On May 12th, yields on long-term UK government bonds surged. The yield on 20-year bonds rose to 5.734%, the highest since July 1998, up 12 basis points on the day; the yield on 30-year bonds rose to 5.794%, the highest level since May 1998, up 11 basis points on the day. The main reason for the sharp rise in yields was the further weakening of Prime Minister Starmers governing position, with a growing number of Labour MPs calling for his resignation. The rise in long-term bond yields reflects, to some extent, concerns about fiscal sustainability. UK bond investors are worried that Starmers successor may further increase borrowing. Financial markets are closely watching for signs of significant divisions among members of the UK government cabinet.May 12th - The US April CPI is expected to rise 3.7% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since September 2023; the March increase was 3.3%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, is projected to rise 0.3% last month, and is likely to be rounded to 0.4%. March saw a 0.2% increase. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the CPI report, is expected to make a one-time adjustment to rents and landlord-equivalent rents. Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, stated, "The April report will include actual data for this portion of the rent sample, which should have a significant catch-up effect. We expect this particular factor to increase the core CPI increase by about 0.1 percentage points for the month."ECB Governing Council member Nagel: The baseline scenario includes two rate hikes.ECB Governing Council member Nagel: Our mission requires us to act when inflation expectations become unanchored, and we will see the results in June.May 12 - A shortage of ink caused by the Middle East conflict has forced Japans largest potato chip manufacturer to downgrade its packaging, the latest sign that the raw material shortage is worsening and impacting global markets. Tokyo-based snack company Calbee said on Tuesday it will temporarily adjust the packaging design of some of its most popular products, using only two ink colors. These products include potato chips, shrimp crackers, and fruit cereals.

USD/JPY is trading near 141.00, which would signal a return to levels not seen in 24 years

Daniel Rogers

Sep 05, 2022 16:30

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The US dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate is getting closer to last week's 24-year high of 140.80. In the wake of the US dollar index (DXY) hitting a fresh 20-year high of 110.03, the asset is gaining a great deal of momentum. The DXY has been trading at high levels and is expected to continue its upward trend.

 

The DXY has risen to prominence on currency markets as optimism about US employment data (as measured by Nonfarm Payrolls or NFP) has persisted over the previous week. The Fed's satisfaction with the US economy's August job gains is boosting the asset's value (Fed). Even though pricing pressures are having a significant influence on household income, recent depletion signals are not sufficient to persuade consumers to raise their spending habit (quantity-wise). Therefore, higher employment creation will encourage Fed policymakers to sound hawkish without hesitation.

 

Future attention will center on the release of the US ISM Services PMI. As the US economy is recognized for its IT giants and its offering of IT services to emerging nations, the value of the US Services PMI is unusually high. From 56.7, economists expect the economy to slow to 54.9. This may put an end to the DXY's dream rally, and the asset may encounter considerable challenges.

 

Due to the holiday on Monday, the US markets won't be trading, thus the asset's movement will be determined largely by market sentiment.

 

Investors are waiting for Tokyo to release secondary economic statistics on Monday. There is consensus that the Jibun Bank Services PMI will hold steady at 49.2. Although the release of Japan's GDP figures will continue to be a major forthcoming event. The GDP is forecast to increase to 0.7% from 0.5% in the third quarter. The annualized figure, at 2.9%, is much higher than the 2.2% that was previously reported.