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May 5th - According to three sources familiar with the matter, US intelligence assessments indicate that the timeline for Iran to develop nuclear weapons has remained unchanged since last summer. At that time, analysts estimated that the joint US-Israeli strikes had delayed this timeline by up to a year. This unchanged timeline suggests that effectively stopping Irans nuclear program may require the destruction or removal of Irans remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU). The sources stated that US intelligence agencies concluded before the 12-day war in June of last year that Iran was likely to produce enough weapons-grade uranium to build a nuclear weapon within three to six months. Following the June airstrikes, US intelligence assessments pushed this timeline back to approximately nine months to a year.According to the Wall Street Journal, "Big Short" Michael Burry has sold off his entire stake in GameStop (GME.N), after GameStop announced its intention to acquire eBay (EBAY.O).Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: With Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Warsh now serving as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, I believe the Feds culture and behavior will continue as they have been.US President Trump: Hundreds of millions of barrels of oil are flowing out of Venezuela.On May 5th, New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that the Feds current accommodative stance reflects the likely long-term direction of monetary policy, while inflation dynamics have not yet reached the point where a rate hike needs to be discussed. Speaking to reporters after a speech in New York City, Williams said, "I dont see any indication from todays data that a rate hike is necessary in the near term." However, he added that given the current level of uncertainty, he believes "we cannot yet provide clear guidance on the direction of interest rates at the next few meetings."

AUD / USD Rises To 0.6640 As Australian Employment Improves

Daniel Rogers

Mar 16, 2023 14:12

As a consequence of the upbeat Employment data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the AUD/USD pair has extended its recovery to near 0.6640. The Australian economy added 64,600 new employment in February, exceeding the consensus estimate of 48,500. The Australian economy reported 11.5K unemployment in January. From estimates of 3.6% and the previous issuance of 3.7%, the unemployment rate has been further reduced to 3.5%.

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is drafting a plan to reduce inflation, will encounter additional challenges as a consequence of positive Australian labor market data. As a larger labor force in action would exacerbate inflationary pressures, RBA Governor Philip Lowe may continue to target higher rates.

 

Earlier, Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations (Mar) data indicated that inflation projections for the next 12 months decreased to 5.0% from the consensus of 5.4% and the previous release of 5.1%.

 

In the meantime, S&P500 futures are showing modest gains during the Asian session, which could be considered a dead cat bounce following the volatility on Wednesday. The debacle of Credit Suisse following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has increased the risk of global banking turmoil. According to one school of thought, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other western central banks' rapid and precipitous interest rate increases contributed to the collapse of the global banking system.

 

As investors anticipate a less hawkish interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is looking to extend its correction below 104.60. After a fleeting upswing in January, the United States' inflation has retreated, dampening expectations for a hawkish stance from Fed chair Jerome Powell.