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July 1st - Eurozone inflation fell far more than expected in June, further easing pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates again this month to curb rapid price increases. The Eurozones overall inflation rate fell to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, below the expected 3.0%; inflation in food, energy, and services prices all slowed. Meanwhile, inflation excluding volatile food and fuel prices fell to 2.4% from 2.6%, with services price inflation falling to 3.2% from 3.5%. Although the June figures remain well above the ECBs 2% target, recent oil price declines driven by market bets on a US-Iran peace agreement have fueled optimism that price pressures may be easing and the widespread negative impact of soaring energy prices will remain limited. In fact, several ECB policymakers have stated that the ECB does not need to rush into action this month, and policymakers have time to observe the evolution of price pressures.Following the release of Eurozone inflation data, the market slightly reduced its bets on a European Central Bank rate hike, now expecting a 23 basis point increase before the end of the year.July 1st - Eurozone inflation fell to 2.8% in June, a larger drop than expected. This is a major boost for the European Central Bank (ECB) as it struggles to curb price increases stemming from the Iran war. Preliminary data released Wednesday by Eurostat showed June inflation was lower than the 3% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll and also lower than Mays 3.2%. To curb inflationary pressures, the ECB raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 2.25% last month, its first rate hike since 2023. June marked the fourth consecutive month that inflation in the G21 countries exceeded the ECBs 2% medium-term target. Prior to the June data release, traders, based on implied levels in swap contracts, expected the ECB to raise rates by another 0.25 basis points before the end of the year.Eurozone bond yields fell slightly after inflation data came in below expectations, with the yield on Germanys 2-year government bond falling 1 basis point to 2.523%.The Eurozones core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in June, down from 0.3% in the previous month.

NZD/USD finds support near 0.6220; a decline appears more probable due to China's Covid concerns

Alina Haynes

Nov 28, 2022 15:04

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China's anti-Covid shutdown protests have weakened commodity-linked currencies, resulting in a gap-down start of roughly 0.6220 for the NZD/USD pair. During the previous week, the New Zealand dollar dropped after failing to surpass the round-level barrier of 0.6300.

 

Individuals have taken to the streets in China to demonstrate their opposition against the zero-tolerance policy, leading to a rise in civil unrest. Due to Chinese leader Xi Jinping's conservative posture and authoritarian framework, global markets have become more risk-averse. This has created an economic expansion risk and may worsen the already shaky housing market. Increasing apprehensions about societal risks may also result in political instability, which may have long-lasting detrimental effects on economic structure.

 

Notably, New Zealand is one of China's most important trading partners, and instability in China could damage the New Zealand Dollar.

 

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is profiting from investors' liquidity as the demand for safe-haven assets surges. The USD Index is hovering around 106.20 and attempting to reduce volatility as China's anti-locking protests restrict the upside and predictions of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's larger rate hike cycle limit the downside (Fed).

 

S&P500 futures are under heavy pressure from market players due to a risk-averse market mentality. In anticipation of Fed chief Jerome Powell's address on Wednesday, yields on 10-year US Treasuries have decreased to approximately 3.68 percent. The Fed Chair's speech could dispel suspicions about a pause to the Fed's current rate-hiking program.