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On September 19th, the United States warned its allies that deliveries of some key weapons could be delayed by up to five years due to the significant depletion of its own munitions stockpiled during the war with Iran. Several officials stated that orders for Tomahawk cruise missiles and the Tefeng long-range launch system from European countries like Germany are facing delays due to insufficient US stockpiles, and some Eastern European countries reliant on US weapons are also affected. The US military consumed a large amount of advanced munitions during the war with Iran, including more than half of its advanced Patriot interceptor missiles, about one-third of its Tomahawk missiles, and nearly half of its precision-guided missiles and THAAD interceptor stockpile. The Pentagon acknowledged that the large-scale use of munitions exposed strategic stockpile shortages and bottlenecks in military production capacity. Currently, US defense contractors are expanding production capacity, with Lockheed Martin planning to increase the annual production of PAC-3 Patriot missiles. Meanwhile, Ukraine urgently needs more Patriot air defense interceptors, but the US policy of prioritizing its own stockpiles has also increased supply pressure.September 19th - Due to the shutdown of Saudi Arabias east-west oil pipeline, European refiners are scrambling for alternative sources, while soaring fuel prices are further pushing up crude oil procurement costs. Following the attack on its pipelines leading to the Red Sea, Saudi Aramco is seeking to increase crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. This week, Asian buyers purchased tens of millions of barrels of Saudi crude from the vicinity of the strait. However, this adjustment also means that these shipments are further away from European refiners eager for supplies. On Friday, the North Sea crude premium surged to a record high. This comes after Saudi Aramco informed its European customers that it would be unable to supply them with crude oil next month according to long-term agreements. Traders involved in the market said that Norwegian Johan Sverdrup crude, which is similar in quality to Saudi crude, is priced at up to $35 per barrel higher than the Brent spot benchmark. Less than two weeks ago, the premium for the same grade was only 60 cents per barrel. The surge in spot crude prices indicates that European refineries are sparing no expense to secure crude oil supplies and maintain sufficiently high refinery operating rates to alleviate fuel supply shortages. Diesel prices in the region have now risen to over $200 per barrel.On September 19th, US President Donald Trump announced an immediate ban on CNN, MSNBC (renamed MSNOW), and Politico from entering the White House, citing his accusations that these media outlets have long published "fake news." Trump stated that media outlets should not publish what he considers "fictional" and "false" content when reporting on the US president, the Trump administration, or US affairs, and indicated that other media organizations may face similar restrictions. Trump also criticized Politico for receiving an $8 million subscription contract from the Biden administration, claiming the deal was problematic.US President Trump: Effective immediately, CNN, MSNOW (formerly MSNBC), and Politico are banned from entering the White House, citing their "continuous reporting of fake news."German Chancellor Merz: Germany will reduce the tax on gasoline and diesel by approximately 17 euro cents per liter. This measure is scheduled to take effect on October 1st and will remain in effect until the end of 2026.

NZD/USD finds support near 0.6220; a decline appears more probable due to China's Covid concerns

Alina Haynes

Nov 28, 2022 15:04

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China's anti-Covid shutdown protests have weakened commodity-linked currencies, resulting in a gap-down start of roughly 0.6220 for the NZD/USD pair. During the previous week, the New Zealand dollar dropped after failing to surpass the round-level barrier of 0.6300.

 

Individuals have taken to the streets in China to demonstrate their opposition against the zero-tolerance policy, leading to a rise in civil unrest. Due to Chinese leader Xi Jinping's conservative posture and authoritarian framework, global markets have become more risk-averse. This has created an economic expansion risk and may worsen the already shaky housing market. Increasing apprehensions about societal risks may also result in political instability, which may have long-lasting detrimental effects on economic structure.

 

Notably, New Zealand is one of China's most important trading partners, and instability in China could damage the New Zealand Dollar.

 

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is profiting from investors' liquidity as the demand for safe-haven assets surges. The USD Index is hovering around 106.20 and attempting to reduce volatility as China's anti-locking protests restrict the upside and predictions of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's larger rate hike cycle limit the downside (Fed).

 

S&P500 futures are under heavy pressure from market players due to a risk-averse market mentality. In anticipation of Fed chief Jerome Powell's address on Wednesday, yields on 10-year US Treasuries have decreased to approximately 3.68 percent. The Fed Chair's speech could dispel suspicions about a pause to the Fed's current rate-hiking program.