EUR/USD 1.16053

USD/JPY 159.938

GBP/USD 1.34201

GBP/JPY 214.643

English
简体中文
繁體中文
Tiếng Việt
ไทย
Indonesia

Subscribe

Real-time News

According to the Wall Street Journal, Meta Platforms (META.O) says it plans to release the API for its latest AI model in June.According to the Wall Street Journal, sources say that Meta Platforms (META.O) has delayed the release of the API for its Muse Spark AI model due to vulnerabilities and infrastructure issues.The Malaysian Ministry of Trade stated that the United States has not yet made a final tariff decision regarding Malaysia.June 4th - Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated on Thursday that the Japanese government expects the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to implement appropriate monetary policy in close coordination to achieve a sustainable 2% inflation target driven by wage growth. When asked about BOJ Governor Kazuo Uedas remarks on Wednesday, Kihara declined to comment on specific points, only stating that the government and the BOJ have maintained and will continue to maintain "full communication" on occasions such as the meeting between the BOJ governor and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi last month. "Specific monetary policy measures should be decided by the BOJ," Kihara said at a regular press briefing, reiterating the governments consistent stance towards the central bank.1. Strong Data Drastically Reduces Rate Cut Expectations: The US ADP nonfarm payrolls for May added 122,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, and the May ISM services PMI hit a multi-month high. The US labor market and consumer spending demonstrated remarkable resilience, significantly reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in the short term. 2. Tightening Fears Suppress Valuations: Strong economic fundamentals led several Fed officials to adopt a hawkish stance, exacerbating market concerns about maintaining high interest rates or even restarting rate hikes this year. This directly pushed up both the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, severely suppressing the valuations of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold and silver. 3. Unpredictable Geopolitical Situation: The Middle East geopolitical situation remains volatile. While there have been reports of progress in US-Iran negotiations, significant differences remain between the two sides on core issues, leading to frequent sporadic conflicts. The sharp fluctuations in risk aversion have increased the two-way volatility risk in precious metals markets. 4. Industry Dynamics and Capital Outflows: Russian officials predict gold production will reach 480-500 tons in 2026, far exceeding institutional expectations, with the increased supply putting pressure on gold prices. In terms of capital flows, the worlds largest gold ETF (SPDR) has recently seen outflows, indicating a lack of upward momentum in the short term. 5. Platinum and Palladium End-User Demand Under Pressure: In addition to macroeconomic pressures, high oil prices and the accelerated electrification of automobiles continue to squeeze the market share of traditional gasoline vehicle catalysts, leading to significant pressure on palladium demand. The overall decline in platinum and palladium prices has exceeded that of gold and silver. 6. Zhengxin Futures View: The ADP Non-Farm Payrolls report reflects the resilience of the US labor market, providing more confidence for the Federal Reserve to maintain its tightening stance. Gold will mainly be affected by macroeconomic factors in the short term, maintaining a weak and volatile trend. However, in the long term, global de-dollarization and strategic reserve demand will continue to provide strong support for gold prices. 7. Nanhua Futures View: With no easing signals on the monetary policy front and even rising expectations of interest rate hikes, precious metals lack significant upward momentum. However, given the prolonged period of high oil prices, it is crucial to pay close attention to signs of economic slowdown. If a "stagflation trade" begins, it will become a key narrative for the next gold price increase. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data and is for reference only; it does not constitute investment advice.)

NZD/USD finds support near 0.6220; a decline appears more probable due to China's Covid concerns

Alina Haynes

Nov 28, 2022 15:04

截屏2022-11-28 上午10.39.08.png

China's anti-Covid shutdown protests have weakened commodity-linked currencies, resulting in a gap-down start of roughly 0.6220 for the NZD/USD pair. During the previous week, the New Zealand dollar dropped after failing to surpass the round-level barrier of 0.6300.

Individuals have taken to the streets in China to demonstrate their opposition against the zero-tolerance policy, leading to a rise in civil unrest. Due to Chinese leader Xi Jinping's conservative posture and authoritarian framework, global markets have become more risk-averse. This has created an economic expansion risk and may worsen the already shaky housing market. Increasing apprehensions about societal risks may also result in political instability, which may have long-lasting detrimental effects on economic structure.

Notably, New Zealand is one of China's most important trading partners, and instability in China could damage the New Zealand Dollar.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is profiting from investors' liquidity as the demand for safe-haven assets surges. The USD Index is hovering around 106.20 and attempting to reduce volatility as China's anti-locking protests restrict the upside and predictions of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's larger rate hike cycle limit the downside (Fed).

S&P500 futures are under heavy pressure from market players due to a risk-averse market mentality. In anticipation of Fed chief Jerome Powell's address on Wednesday, yields on 10-year US Treasuries have decreased to approximately 3.68 percent. The Fed Chair's speech could dispel suspicions about a pause to the Fed's current rate-hiking program.