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August 30th - According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump spent months touting his move to overthrow Venezuelas leader as bringing the countrys oil "under American control." However, when U.S. energy companies were unwilling to invest at the pace and scale he desired, his administration devised an extraordinary solution to realize his vision—the U.S. government becoming the investor itself. The oil deal with Venezuela announced Friday evening will transform the U.S. governments role from "middleman" in U.S.-funded oil investment in Venezuela to "investor" itself. The agreement will grant Washington a direct financial interest in a private company that will be granted a century-long right to exploit some of the worlds largest proven oil reserves. Led by the controversial Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Bertancott, the company will have the opportunity to develop 17 oil fields estimated to contain 65 billion barrels of crude oil, equivalent to one-fifth of the countrys reserves. According to sources involved in the negotiations, the U.S. plans to hold a 35% passive stake in Bertancotts North American Blue Energy Partnership and have the right of first refusal to purchase 20% of its production at cost.On August 30th, Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodriguez announced further details of the oil agreement with the United States in a televised address to the nation. She stated that the agreement covers 17 prospective oil fields, aiming to achieve a daily production of 1.5 million barrels of crude oil through a 25-year concession. The Venezuelan government hopes to profit from the oil by setting a price of $69 per barrel, ensuring a government profit of $19 per barrel. This also includes a 16% mining royalties and a 34% income tax on the oil companies operating the fields. These revenues are expected to add to the $209 billion in profits announced earlier this week.On August 30th, SK Hynix CEO Guo Luzheng stated that the global memory chip shortage is expected to continue until the end of 2030, while the risk of oversupply is low because in the AI era, memory chips are no longer "simply standardized commodities." Despite market concerns about an AI investment bubble, he said he "sees no" signs of oversupply or a potential memory chip downturn, as demand from AI customers remains strong. He added, "If we pass the AI peak, or if another downturn occurs in the future, challenges may arise. But I think the next downturn will be different from the slumps weve experienced in the past few decades. Even if a downturn comes, I dont think it will be a sharp decline, but rather a slow decrease in demand, and it may even stabilize."NASA: NASA and SpaceX have adjusted the launch date of Crew-13 to address an oxidizer leak in the Dragon spacecrafts propulsion system.On August 30th, according to a report by Axios, citing sources familiar with the matter, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, during a secret visit to Moscow earlier this week, proposed a trilateral summit between US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to push for an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sources said that part of Ratcliffes visit was to assess whether the head of Russian intelligence could persuade Putin to return to the US-mediated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. This marks Ratcliffes first involvement in diplomatic efforts to achieve a breakthrough in Russia-Ukraine relations. The report stated that US officials briefed Zelenskyy on Ratcliffes talks in Moscow on Friday (August 28th) and the proposal for a trilateral summit between the US, Russia, and Ukraine.

NZD/USD finds support near 0.6220; a decline appears more probable due to China's Covid concerns

Alina Haynes

Nov 28, 2022 15:04

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China's anti-Covid shutdown protests have weakened commodity-linked currencies, resulting in a gap-down start of roughly 0.6220 for the NZD/USD pair. During the previous week, the New Zealand dollar dropped after failing to surpass the round-level barrier of 0.6300.

 

Individuals have taken to the streets in China to demonstrate their opposition against the zero-tolerance policy, leading to a rise in civil unrest. Due to Chinese leader Xi Jinping's conservative posture and authoritarian framework, global markets have become more risk-averse. This has created an economic expansion risk and may worsen the already shaky housing market. Increasing apprehensions about societal risks may also result in political instability, which may have long-lasting detrimental effects on economic structure.

 

Notably, New Zealand is one of China's most important trading partners, and instability in China could damage the New Zealand Dollar.

 

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is profiting from investors' liquidity as the demand for safe-haven assets surges. The USD Index is hovering around 106.20 and attempting to reduce volatility as China's anti-locking protests restrict the upside and predictions of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's larger rate hike cycle limit the downside (Fed).

 

S&P500 futures are under heavy pressure from market players due to a risk-averse market mentality. In anticipation of Fed chief Jerome Powell's address on Wednesday, yields on 10-year US Treasuries have decreased to approximately 3.68 percent. The Fed Chair's speech could dispel suspicions about a pause to the Fed's current rate-hiking program.