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Yoshinobu Tsutsui, Chairman of the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren): Exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals.Yoshinobu Tsutsui, chairman of the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren), said: We must avoid a continued weakening of the yen.December 8th - This weeks Federal Reserve meeting is expected to be one of the most contentious in years, with investors focusing on the extent of policymakers disagreement on rate cuts and the signals Powell will send regarding the future path. Janus Henderson believes that in the long term, the December meeting will have little impact on the market. There may be some volatility in the short term, but actions in the first half of 2026 are more important than in December. Wilmington Trust believes that the market has largely priced in a Fed rate cut; the real key is the Feds policy guidance. They are expected to be very cautious, emphasizing dependence on economic data. Some observers believe that the probability of a Fed rate cut is not as high as the market suggests, and they are more concerned about Powells statement and the proximity of the policy vote. Nomura economists point out that nothing is certain yet, and the market is underestimating the risks of the Fed choosing not to cut rates in December. How many dissenting votes there will be if a rate cut is made is very interesting. With the rotation of the four regional Fed presidents, their positions will reveal how much independence they intend to maintain and how much pressure they will exert on the Fed.On December 8th, German economist and ECB Executive Board member Schnabel stated that she would be willing to succeed ECB President Lagarde if her term ends in less than two years. When asked about the prevailing opinion that now is the right time for a German to lead the ECB, and whether she might be a candidate, Schnabel said in an interview, "If invited, I am ready to take over." Currently considered leading candidates include former Dutch central bank governor Knott, current BIS President and Spains de Cos, and Bundesbank President Nagel. Although Lagardes term will last until October 2027, discussions about the successor are intensifying as politicians begin searching for a successor to Vice President Guindos, who will leave office next May. The reshuffling of senior positions will result in a two-thirds change of members on the six-member Executive Board—a delicate process requiring a balance between large and small countries, north and south, hawks and doves, and, as far as possible, gender representation. Schnabel and Lagarde are the only women on the ECB Governing Council.The yield on German 30-year government bonds rose to its highest level since 2011, reaching 3.441%.

NZD/USD finds support near 0.6220; a decline appears more probable due to China's Covid concerns

Alina Haynes

Nov 28, 2022 15:04

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China's anti-Covid shutdown protests have weakened commodity-linked currencies, resulting in a gap-down start of roughly 0.6220 for the NZD/USD pair. During the previous week, the New Zealand dollar dropped after failing to surpass the round-level barrier of 0.6300.

 

Individuals have taken to the streets in China to demonstrate their opposition against the zero-tolerance policy, leading to a rise in civil unrest. Due to Chinese leader Xi Jinping's conservative posture and authoritarian framework, global markets have become more risk-averse. This has created an economic expansion risk and may worsen the already shaky housing market. Increasing apprehensions about societal risks may also result in political instability, which may have long-lasting detrimental effects on economic structure.

 

Notably, New Zealand is one of China's most important trading partners, and instability in China could damage the New Zealand Dollar.

 

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is profiting from investors' liquidity as the demand for safe-haven assets surges. The USD Index is hovering around 106.20 and attempting to reduce volatility as China's anti-locking protests restrict the upside and predictions of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's larger rate hike cycle limit the downside (Fed).

 

S&P500 futures are under heavy pressure from market players due to a risk-averse market mentality. In anticipation of Fed chief Jerome Powell's address on Wednesday, yields on 10-year US Treasuries have decreased to approximately 3.68 percent. The Fed Chair's speech could dispel suspicions about a pause to the Fed's current rate-hiking program.