EUR/USD 1.17300
-0.070%
Gold 4314.64
0.815%
Oil 57.871
0.223%
USD/JPY 155.812
0.163%
GBP/USD 1.33799
-0.045%
GBP/JPY 208.479
0.120%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
He Lifeng: We must go all out to promote high-quality development, continue to implement the moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, steadily and orderly advance financial reform and opening up, and do a good job in expectation management.December 12th - Market analysts say oil prices rose today, but a significant drop is still possible this week. Diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with overall bearish fundamentals, suggest a supply glut next year. Next week, market focus is expected to be on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, while traders also watch the escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that market-expected surpluses have narrowed, but a large supply glut still casts a shadow over the outlook. In contrast, OPECs supply and demand forecasts point to a relatively balanced market next year. ANZ analysts said, "This is a stark reversal of the outlook that predicted a tighter market earlier this year."On December 12th, KPMGs Chief UK Economist, Yael Selfin, stated in a report that UK GDP contracted by 0.1% month-on-month in the three months of October, and growth is expected to remain weak for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Economic activity in November may be constrained by uncertainty surrounding the government budget. She pointed out that although the budget avoided an early tax increase and borrowing costs are expected to decline over the next year, its impact may persist, and household confidence is unlikely to improve in the short term. The outlook for investment growth is more optimistic and should be a key driver of economic growth in 2026. However, she expects GDP to remain flat in the fourth quarter of 2025.The Kremlin: The US will discuss the results of its negotiations with Ukraine with Moscow sooner or later. However, Moscow has not yet seen the revised proposals following the US-Ukraine negotiations and may "dislike much of it."Data shows that Russias seaborne petroleum product exports in November decreased by 0.8% compared to October.

When will the Australian trade balance be released, and how will the AUD react?

Drake Hampton

Apr 07, 2022 10:24

截屏2022-04-07 上午9.58.33.png


At the top of the hour, Australia's Trade Balance will be released. Westpac analysts forecast a $13.2 billion trade surplus, within a whisker of last July's $13.3 billion top (median forecast $11.7 billion).

 

Analysts forecast exports to increase more in February, by +2.2 percent, or $1.1 billion. They observe that coal and LNG are likely to have advanced in price and volume terms. 

 

"Iron ore demand is projected to drop slightly despite higher prices, as shipments were weak last month. Imports fell -1.6 percent in January, following a 13 percent increase in the previous two months as a result of the post-delta reopening. February is predicted to see a continuation of the rise, +2.2 percent, +$0.8bn, on stronger volumes and rising prices."

What can we anticipate from AUD?

AUD/USD has failed to climb higher despite the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adopting a more hawkish position on inflation developments by abandoning its 'patient' posture. According to the monetary policy statement, the Australian economy has remained resilient and spending has increased in the aftermath of the omicron setback.

 

The AUD/USD pair surged to a high of 0.7661 but then fell back to the 0.7480s due to a strong US dollar. Unless the surplus surprises positively, the Australian dollar is expected to stay under pressure from the strength of US rates and the dollar.

Concerning the Trade Balance 

The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes the trade balance, which is the difference between the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export statistics can provide valuable insight into Australian growth, while import data provide insight into domestic demand. The trade balance provides an early indication of the performance of net exports. If there is consistent demand for Australian exports, this will result in positive increase in the trade balance, which should benefit the AUD.

Suggestion