This Year, Bitcoin Has Stagnated. What is to Come Next?

Technical Analysis of the Bitcoin Elliot Wave

Bitcoin (BTC) began the year 2021 at a price of $46197 and is currently trading at $40297. Only a 12.8 percent decline, but everyone is gloomy. Between January 24th and March 28th of this year, it went as low as $32991 and as high as $46669. Almost all of BTC's price activity this year has been limited within a range of $35500 to $45000, with a mid-point of $40500.

From an Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) standpoint, sideways markets are the most difficult to anticipate due to the abundance of alternatives. Knowing which scenario is more likely becomes more of an educated estimate than it is when the cryptocurrency is in a much more defined impulse-based upswing. Consider Figure 1.

Bitcoin displayed a distinct impulse pattern leading up to the blue Primary-III high in early-2021, and then a distinct five-wave impulse pattern from the June lows to the November 2021 highs. BTC should have topped for a (pink) Cycle-3 wave and is currently in a Cycle-4 wave, according to my larger-picture EWP analysis.

I demonstrated in my prior report, which can be found here, that BTC was constructing a more imminent downside setup to $25K for wave-C4. Or if it becomes more problematic due to the famously difficult nature of fourth waves. In today's update, I'd want to take a deep dive into the more complex case. 

Final Thoughts

BTC is currently undergoing a multi-month fourth wave correction of the same magnitude as the wave that concluded in 2018 following the 2017 apex. Fourth waves are perplexing because they can take on at least 12 different patterns. Knowing which of these is which is impossible in advance. At this point, BTC has the potential to evolve into a complex triangle, but three factors must occur in order for it to occur:

• Maintain a position above the trendline connecting the January and February lows, which is currently located at $36900.

• Closer to this year's mid-point of $40,500. This reintroduces the possibility of targeting $45,500.

• A near-recovery of the late-March high of $46669. Then the possible greater a-b-c pattern of wave-B is activated, preferably reaching $60K.

• As a result, the stage has been set. The conditions are favorable for the formation of a complicated triangle. All BTC needs to do is give the triggers for the "three-step program" outlined above.