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June 2nd - Eurozone inflation surpassed 3% for the first time in two and a half years, further reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates at its meeting next week. Eurostat reported on Tuesday that the CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year in May, up from 3% in the previous month and in line with the median forecast. Core inflation, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, rose sharply to 2.5%, exceeding expectations, while the closely watched services index jumped to 3.5%. Markets expect the ECB to raise interest rates in June for the first time since September 2023. Officials appear to have concluded that they can no longer wait and must respond immediately to the impact of the Middle East conflict.On June 2nd, the State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Accelerating the Modernization of Agriculture and Rural Areas." The plan mentions promoting the research and application of high-end, intelligent agricultural machinery and equipment suitable for hilly and mountainous areas. It also calls for the categorized cultivation of leading enterprises in the agricultural machinery and equipment sector, manufacturing single-item champion enterprises, and specialized and innovative SMEs, supporting enterprises in strengthening production line technological transformation and accelerating digital transformation, and building strong advanced manufacturing clusters and SME characteristic industrial clusters in the agricultural machinery and equipment sector. The plan systematically promotes the research and development of new energy agricultural machinery and equipment technologies, industrial collaboration, and infrastructure construction. It also calls for the orderly development of the low-altitude economy in the agricultural and rural sectors. Furthermore, it emphasizes strengthening independent research and development of modern facility agriculture equipment and the categorized and orderly upgrading and renovation of old facilities. Finally, it implements a "preferential subsidy for superior machinery" and "entry and exit" system for agricultural machinery purchase and application subsidies, as well as the scrapping and replacement of old agricultural machinery.The UK government has unveiled its proposed seventh carbon budget, setting a target of reducing emissions by 87% between 2038 and 2042.Scotiabank raised its price target for Oracle (ORCL.N) from $215 to $290.On June 2nd, the State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Accelerating Agricultural and Rural Modernization," clarifying the guiding principles, objectives, key tasks, and policy measures for accelerating agricultural and rural modernization during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The plan emphasizes using accelerated agricultural and rural modernization to better advance Chinas modernization drive. The plan proposes that by 2030, the foundation of food security will be continuously strengthened, the quality, efficiency, and competitiveness of agriculture will be continuously improved, the achievements in poverty alleviation will be further consolidated and expanded, the level of self-reliance in agricultural science and technology will be significantly enhanced, significant progress will be made in building agriculture into a modern large-scale industry, farmers income will continue to grow rapidly, the construction of livable, workable, and beautiful villages will be accelerated, new breakthroughs will be achieved in urban-rural integration, and remarkable results will be achieved in high-quality agricultural and rural development. The plan also provides an outlook for 2035.

This Year, Bitcoin Has Stagnated. What is to Come Next?

Alina Haynes

Apr 29, 2022 10:09

Technical Analysis of the Bitcoin Elliot Wave

截屏2022-04-29 上午9.34.49.png

 

Bitcoin (BTC) began the year 2021 at a price of $46197 and is currently trading at $40297. Only a 12.8 percent decline, but everyone is gloomy. Between January 24th and March 28th of this year, it went as low as $32991 and as high as $46669. Almost all of BTC's price activity this year has been limited within a range of $35500 to $45000, with a mid-point of $40500.

 

From an Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) standpoint, sideways markets are the most difficult to anticipate due to the abundance of alternatives. Knowing which scenario is more likely becomes more of an educated estimate than it is when the cryptocurrency is in a much more defined impulse-based upswing. Consider Figure 1.

 

Bitcoin displayed a distinct impulse pattern leading up to the blue Primary-III high in early-2021, and then a distinct five-wave impulse pattern from the June lows to the November 2021 highs. BTC should have topped for a (pink) Cycle-3 wave and is currently in a Cycle-4 wave, according to my larger-picture EWP analysis.

 

I demonstrated in my prior report, which can be found here, that BTC was constructing a more imminent downside setup to $25K for wave-C4. Or if it becomes more problematic due to the famously difficult nature of fourth waves. In today's update, I'd want to take a deep dive into the more complex case. 

Final Thoughts

BTC is currently undergoing a multi-month fourth wave correction of the same magnitude as the wave that concluded in 2018 following the 2017 apex. Fourth waves are perplexing because they can take on at least 12 different patterns. Knowing which of these is which is impossible in advance. At this point, BTC has the potential to evolve into a complex triangle, but three factors must occur in order for it to occur:

  • Maintain a position above the trendline connecting the January and February lows, which is currently located at $36900.

  • Closer to this year's mid-point of $40,500. This reintroduces the possibility of targeting $45,500.

  • A near-recovery of the late-March high of $46669. Then the possible greater a-b-c pattern of wave-B is activated, preferably reaching $60K.

  • As a result, the stage has been set. The conditions are favorable for the formation of a complicated triangle. All BTC needs to do is give the triggers for the "three-step program" outlined above.