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He Lifeng: We must go all out to promote high-quality development, continue to implement the moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, steadily and orderly advance financial reform and opening up, and do a good job in expectation management.December 12th - Market analysts say oil prices rose today, but a significant drop is still possible this week. Diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with overall bearish fundamentals, suggest a supply glut next year. Next week, market focus is expected to be on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, while traders also watch the escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that market-expected surpluses have narrowed, but a large supply glut still casts a shadow over the outlook. In contrast, OPECs supply and demand forecasts point to a relatively balanced market next year. ANZ analysts said, "This is a stark reversal of the outlook that predicted a tighter market earlier this year."On December 12th, KPMGs Chief UK Economist, Yael Selfin, stated in a report that UK GDP contracted by 0.1% month-on-month in the three months of October, and growth is expected to remain weak for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Economic activity in November may be constrained by uncertainty surrounding the government budget. She pointed out that although the budget avoided an early tax increase and borrowing costs are expected to decline over the next year, its impact may persist, and household confidence is unlikely to improve in the short term. The outlook for investment growth is more optimistic and should be a key driver of economic growth in 2026. However, she expects GDP to remain flat in the fourth quarter of 2025.The Kremlin: The US will discuss the results of its negotiations with Ukraine with Moscow sooner or later. However, Moscow has not yet seen the revised proposals following the US-Ukraine negotiations and may "dislike much of it."Data shows that Russias seaborne petroleum product exports in November decreased by 0.8% compared to October.

The US Dollar Rapidly Returns to the Highs - Threatening a Topside Break

Drake Hampton

Apr 24, 2022 10:48

It's been a hectic week throughout markets, and from where we sit with only a few hours remaining till the week's finish, the big story is the reintroduction of bears into US stocks.

 

Yesterday was particularly significant since statements from FOMC Chair Jerome Powell were interpreted in a fairly hawkish manner, which boosted the US Dollar as stocks continued their downward trend from the Q2 beginning.

 

The US Dollar had been threatening a pullback earlier this week, and the statements from Chair Powell and a few other Fed members have contributed to it being a very short-term move. Following a new high on Tuesday, equities fell on Wednesday, and the decline continued into Thursday morning. However, the USD low appeared around the Euro open on Thursday morning, and bulls have been hard at work since then, forcing a series of breakouts. They may not be finished yet, as buyers are already bristling at the freshly achieved yearly high.

 

The levels I examined on Wednesday morning were significant for the move because a preceding level of support coincided with Thursday's breakthrough resistance, displayed at 100.27. This resulted in a breakout to the following level of resistance at 100.57. And that was breached overnight, allowing for the next area of resistance to be built at the previously established yearly high of 101.02. Additionally, there is still bullish breakout potential as the currency is exhibiting a v-shaped reversal, which leaves the door open for additional rises that might result in another new yearly high.

 

Notably, we are rapidly nearing the FOMC's blackout period, and the bank's May rate decision is projected to be the first in recent memory to raise rates by 50 basis points. Bullish potential exists on both the fundamental and technical levels.

US Dollar Hourly Price Chart

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