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On April 27th, the Ministry of Civil Affairs and two other departments jointly issued the "Administrative Measures for Internet Public Fundraising Service Platforms," clarifying that public fundraising information pages on internet public fundraising service platforms must not include any form of commercial advertising or interactive functions unrelated to public fundraising. The measures will take effect on May 1st of this year. Internet public fundraising service platforms refer to online platforms designated by the State Councils Ministry of Civil Affairs specifically for providing services to charitable organizations conducting public fundraising activities. It is reported that the revised Charity Law stipulates that platforms may not refuse service without justifiable reasons, may not charge fees, and may not insert commercial advertisements. The measures further refine the relevant provisions of the Charity Law and clarify that platforms can refuse to provide services to charitable organizations under specific circumstances. At the same time, platforms are prohibited from accepting donated property on behalf of charitable organizations.April 27th - A survey of businesses access to financing released by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Monday showed that, affected by the war in Iran, eurozone businesses expect short-term inflation to rise, but long-term expectations remain stable, and wage growth expectations are actually slowing. The survey, covering over 10,000 businesses, including both pre- and post-war responses, showed no signs of a second wave of inflation, easing some concerns ahead of Thursdays meeting. The ECB stated that one-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.0% from 2.6% three months ago, while three- and five-year inflation expectations remained unchanged. Businesses did not raise their wage expectations; instead, they reported a slowdown in wage growth expectations. The ECB stated, "The Middle East war has significantly increased businesses expectations for selling prices and input costs, but has not affected wage expectations." The survey showed that wages are expected to grow by 2.8%, down from 3.1% three months ago. Businesses expect selling prices to rise by 3.5%, while input costs, including energy, are expected to rise by 5.8%.On April 27th, the Investor Service and Protection Professional Committee of the Securities Association of China held an enlarged meeting of its chairpersons in Nanning on April 8th. The meeting discussed and exchanged views on the securities industrys implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and strengthening investor protection, and reviewed and approved the Investor Service and Protection Professional Committees key work plan for 2026. The meeting concluded that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the securities industry should deeply grasp the development opportunities of building first-class investment banks and investment institutions, adhere to prioritizing its functions, implement the requirements of the "Several Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of Small and Medium-sized Investors in the Capital Market," integrate the requirements for strengthening investor protection into the entire process of providing financial services and products before, during, and after the transaction, assume the responsibility of protecting the legitimate rights and interests of small and medium-sized investors, implement investor suitability management responsibilities, improve the efficiency of handling investor complaints and preventing illegal securities activities, and better help investors understand risks, make prudent decisions, invest rationally, and protect their rights in accordance with the law.April 27th - In recent years, tourists have complained about management and service issues at some scenic spots, affecting their travel experience. Man Hongwei, Director of the Resource Development Department of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, stated that strengthening scenic spot management is a key measure in the concentrated rectification of irregularities in the tourism industry: First, urging rectification at a higher level, requiring local authorities and scenic spots to review the problem list, adhere to a tourist-centric approach, formulate rectification plans for each issue, and implement rectification work within a specified timeframe. Second, strengthening unannounced inspections, organizing regular "check-up" style unannounced inspections, conducting all-day online information collection, broadening channels for problem discovery, strengthening public opinion collection and analysis, conducting on-site investigations with problem lists in mind, and improving the problem supervision mechanism. Third, linking to rating reviews, we will strengthen dynamic management of the quality rating of 5A-level tourist attractions that fail to rectify problems effectively, show poor improvement, or have frequent problems; those that should be downgraded will be downgraded, and those that should have their ratings revoked will have them revoked.The European Central Banks survey on corporate financing channels shows that short-term inflation expectations have risen significantly, while medium-term expectations remain stable. Businesses anticipate the Iran war will drive a sharp increase in sales prices, but wage expectations have weakened slightly.

USD/ZAR Forecast: Rand Depreciates by 6% Following Declaration of State of Emergency

Larissa Barlow

Apr 24, 2022 10:41

National Disaster Declared Following Deadly Kzn Floods 

On April 11th and 12th, the province of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) received between 200 and 400 millimeters of rain in 24 hours, resulting in the displacement of tens of thousands, billions of rands in damage to infrastructure, residences, and businesses, and a death toll over 500.

 

Due to the gravity of the crisis, the government declared a national state of disaster in order to assist individuals and assist with infrastructure reconstruction. Despite the flooding's limited nature, the floods will have a national impact, as SA's major port in the coastal city of Durban has been negatively affected, resulting in shipping delays.

The Electricity Utility Fights To Keep The Lights On

Eskom, South Africa's sole energy provider, announced on April 8 that load shedding will begin immediately owing to outages at the Kendal, Duvha, Camden, and Kusile power facilities. While several units were restored immediately, it takes time for them to reach full capacity, necessitating the usage of emergency producing reserves.

World Economic Outlook 2022, International Monetary Fund

The IMF revised down global growth earlier this week, citing the Ukraine crisis, persistent inflation, and global tightening monetary policy. Significant economies saw downward adjustments, with the US falling from 4% to 3.7 percent and China falling from 4.8 percent to 4.4 percent. Reduced growth in the US and China implies decreased future demand for goods from exporting nations such as SA, which could result in more economic headwinds. Surprisingly, the IMF maintained SA's growth predictions for 2022 and 2023 at 1.9 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.

USD/ZAR Technical Support and Resistance Levels

The rand has lost over 7% of its value against the strong dollar during the last four trading days. Prior to the current surge in the USD/ZAR exchange rate, the rand was one of the better performing currencies against the dollar. The dollar is fundamentally sound, having benefited from a safe-haven appeal during the early phases of the Ukraine war but now benefiting from aggressive rate hike predictions for the remainder of 2022.

 

The unraveling of the risk-aligned commodity trade, which is linked to global rate hike cycles, adds to the ZAR's troubles by reducing aggregate demand (money becomes more costly to borrow) and frequently results in a slowdown in GDP.

 

The USD/ZAR pair tested the 15.70 mark and has now retreated significantly from that level, which corresponds to the Jan 28 high. USD/ZAR tends to trade near significant psychological levels (purple lines), making 15.50 the closest level to consider. A closure below 15.50 indicates a regression towards trendline support (established from the Jan 28 high), with secondary support at 15.00.

 

However, the rand is vulnerable to further selling due to the abrupt change in ZAR fundamentals. 15.70 is the next resistance level, whereas 16.00 is the secondary level.

USD/ZAR Daily Chart 

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