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Futures market data from August 20th: In the short term, precious metals are expected to fluctuate due to multiple factors, including fluctuating tariff and trade policies, adjustments to expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and geopolitical conflicts. Recent US CPI data showed a modest increase, but PPI far exceeded expectations, primarily driven by rising service sector prices. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut rose before and after the data were released, then retreated. US tariff policies have repeatedly disrupted the market, with the US-China joint statement suspending tariffs for 90 days and the US-India negotiations at an impasse. Some countries have reached agreements but have yet to release implementation details, leaving uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies. Russia-Ukraine negotiations have made no substantial progress, and conflict is likely to continue until a peace agreement is reached. From a medium- to long-term fundamental perspective, the US economic policy uncertainty index remains historically high. US tariff and trade policies are not only fueling inflationary pressures in the US but will also have lasting and far-reaching impacts on other regions and countries around the world. As strategic assets, precious metals offer strong risk mitigation capabilities, and rising demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals is providing a floor for their prices. Against the backdrop of increasing downward pressure on the US economy and loose monetary policy, coupled with the continued central bank gold buying spree and strong investment in gold ETFs, precious metals still have upward driving opportunities in the future, and we recommend going long in the medium and long term.Japan is considering purchasing Turkish drones that have been combat-tested in Ukraine.On August 20, Mexican President Jose Maria Seinbaum stated on Tuesday that the Mexican government had not reached an agreement with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) regarding an operation called "Project Botero" announced by the agency. In a statement on Monday, the DEA said it would launch a "bold bilateral initiative" with Mexico aimed at dismantling drug smuggling corridors. Seinbaum responded: "The DEA issued this statement, and we dont know the basis for it. We have not reached any agreement with the DEA through any security agency, and we dont know why they issued this statement."SF Express (09699.HK) announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that the profit attributable to the owners of the company in the first half of 2025 is expected to increase by no less than 100% compared with the same period last year; the groups revenue is expected to increase by no less than 45% compared with the same period last year.On August 20, media reported, citing local officials, that a traffic accident occurred in Herat Province in western Afghanistan on the evening of the 19th local time, killing more than 50 people, including more than 10 children.

Stocks May See a Reversal As a Result of Bleak GDP Data

Cory Russell

Apr 29, 2022 10:22

Fundamental Analysis of the S&P 500 Index

After rebounding from a fresh low of 4,162.90, the broad stock market index recovered 0.21 percent on Wednesday. The S&P 500 index dropped to its local lows of roughly 4,160 in March. 


Despite quarterly corporate profits disclosures, it continued to fall. There is still a lot of uncertainty about the Fed's tightening monetary policy, as well as the Ukraine crisis. 


Following the publication of Facebook's quarterly earnings report yesterday, the S&P 500 index is predicted to start 1.1 percent higher this morning. However, following significantly poorer than anticipated quarterly Advance GDP figures (-1.4 percent vs. estimates of +1.1 percent), the market retraced some of its overnight gains.

Conclusion

Following recent drops, the S&P 500 index varied on Wednesday. The market ended the day higher, although it remained below the 4,200 level. 


The key Advance GDP announcement today came in substantially lower than predicted. We could see a "sell the rumor, buy the news" scenario here. Investors will also be watching for AAPL and AMZN to deliver their quarterly earnings reports today.

The following is a breakdown:


Yesterday, the S&P 500 index stuck below 4,200; it may seem contradictory, but today's worse-than-expected Advance GDP announcement may cause an upward reversal.