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The coming weeks will be a critical period for the US stock market, one that will determine whether its latest rebound can continue. Employment data, key inflation indicators, and the Federal Reserves interest rate decision will all be released over the next 14 trading days, setting the market tone for investors. The stock market appears to be at a crossroads: the S&P 500 just posted its weakest monthly gain since March, with September historically its worst month. Meanwhile, market volatility has all but vanished. The VIX index, a fear index, has only touched the key 20 level once since late June. "Investors are right to be cautious in September," said Thomas Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. "The Fed is resuming a modest rate-cutting cycle after a long pause, making it difficult for traders to determine their positioning." The long-term US stock bull predicts the S&P 500 will fall 5% to 10% this fall before rebounding to between 6,800 and 7,000 points.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: The EUs new 150 billion euro plan to accelerate investment in the EUs defense industry will benefit Poland the most.U.S. Trade Representative Greer: Continue to advance trade negotiations after the tariff ruling (made by the U.S. court).On August 31, Yuzhou Group announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that during the six months ending June 30, 2025, the contract sales amount reached RMB 3.729 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.21%; revenue was RMB 2.397 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 62.42%; the loss attributable to the parent companys owners was RMB 5.632 billion, and the loss attributable to the parent companys owners in the same period last year was RMB 6.256 billion.Kremlin: European countries are hindering Trumps efforts on Ukraine.

Stock Markets Take a Break Ahead of Non-Farm Payroll

Cory Russell

Aug 05, 2022 15:46

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As we swing back and forth between the Friday news, the S&P 500 has been trading a little sideways throughout the day.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 fluctuated throughout the session on Thursday since we are barely below the 200 day moving average and, of course, we have to be concerned about the employment report on Friday.


Given that circumstance, I believe an explosive move is most likely only a matter of time. If everything remained the same, one may believe that this barrier should hold, but the S&P 500 might really take off if we were to break over the 4200 mark. Although that is not my worst-case situation, I must have it in the back of my mind when I trade this.


The 4100 level, in my opinion, is critical. A far deeper correction may be seen if we were to drop below that level. We drop another 100 points or so at that moment and start looking at the 50 Day EMA.


Unfortunately, whether or not the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy any more forcefully depends entirely on perception. While the Fed adamantly maintains its capacity to do so, the market does not believe it. It's highly likely that the stock markets will see a little decline if the American employment report on Friday is hotter than expected. Traders will view this as yet more justification for the Federal Reserve to closely monitor its monetary policy, perhaps leading it to tighten further. In any case, I believe we are a bit overdone in the near future, but always keep an eye out for the opposite side.

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