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The U.S. Treasury Department authorized Venezuelas state-owned oil company (PDVSA) to conduct certain activities in Venezuela.Conflict Situation: 1. According to RIA Novosti: Russian troops have taken control of the Zalitznichny region of Zaporizhia, Ukraine. 2. Russia stated that one of the two external power lines supplying the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant has been cut off. 3. Ukrainian energy company DTEK stated that the Russian attack damaged its energy facilities in the Odessa region. Peace Negotiations: 1. Kremlin: The specific date for the next round of negotiations on the Ukraine issue has not yet been set. 2. Kremlin spokesman Peskov: There is a possibility that Russia and France can quickly establish a high-level dialogue. 3. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kalas said on Tuesday that a list of concessions demanded from Russia will be drafted as part of resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Other Situations: 1. US Treasury Secretary Bessenter: Optimistic about the situation in Russia and Ukraine. 2. Zelensky signed a presidential decree allowing contract-based military service for personnel over 60 years of age. 3. US Trade Representative Greer: India has begun to gradually reduce its energy purchases from Russia. 4. Kremlin: Russian President Putin and the South African President discussed the Ukraine issue.The API crude oil inventory data for the week ending February 6 will be released in ten minutes.February 11th - According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump administration officials have discussed whether to seize more oil tankers carrying Iranian oil to further pressure Tehran. However, due to concerns about a near-certain Iranian retaliation and its impact on the global oil market, US officials stated that no action has been taken yet. If the US takes action to prevent other sanctioned vessels from loading oil in Iran, it will squeeze Tehrans main source of revenue. This move would expand the White Houses aggressive strategy implemented in the Caribbean last December. However, some officials say that this option, as one of several ways the White House is pressuring Tehran to reach an agreement limiting its nuclear program, faces numerous obstacles, with seizures even being seen as an act of war. In response to the escalating US strikes, Iran is likely to retaliate by seizing oil tankers belonging to US allies in the region, or even laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Either move could cause a sharp rise in oil prices and risk a political storm for the White House.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 52.27 points, or 0.10%, to close at 50,188.14 on Tuesday, February 10; the S&P 500 fell 23.02 points, or 0.33%, to close at 6,941.80; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 136.20 points, or 0.59%, to close at 23,102.47.

Stock Markets Take a Break Ahead of Non-Farm Payroll

Cory Russell

Aug 05, 2022 15:46

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As we swing back and forth between the Friday news, the S&P 500 has been trading a little sideways throughout the day.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 fluctuated throughout the session on Thursday since we are barely below the 200 day moving average and, of course, we have to be concerned about the employment report on Friday.


Given that circumstance, I believe an explosive move is most likely only a matter of time. If everything remained the same, one may believe that this barrier should hold, but the S&P 500 might really take off if we were to break over the 4200 mark. Although that is not my worst-case situation, I must have it in the back of my mind when I trade this.


The 4100 level, in my opinion, is critical. A far deeper correction may be seen if we were to drop below that level. We drop another 100 points or so at that moment and start looking at the 50 Day EMA.


Unfortunately, whether or not the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy any more forcefully depends entirely on perception. While the Fed adamantly maintains its capacity to do so, the market does not believe it. It's highly likely that the stock markets will see a little decline if the American employment report on Friday is hotter than expected. Traders will view this as yet more justification for the Federal Reserve to closely monitor its monetary policy, perhaps leading it to tighten further. In any case, I believe we are a bit overdone in the near future, but always keep an eye out for the opposite side.