• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
Hot-rolled coil prices experienced a week of volatile consolidation and accumulation last week. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday that while inflation remains a concern, rising job market risks could lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September. This dovish message fueled a weekend rally in hot-rolled coil prices. This weeks market performance saw positive news, with futures leading the gains and boosting spot prices. Furthermore, demand, which had been sluggish last week, may see a concentrated release of previously suppressed demand this week, providing support for prices and potentially halting their decline.Futures News, August 25, Economies.com analysts latest views today: Brent crude oil futures prices fluctuated in the previous trading day, trying to gain bullish momentum, which may help it break through the key resistance level of $67.60, taking advantage of the dynamic support represented by its trading above EMA50, influenced by the short-term positive technical pattern, namely the double bottom pattern. In addition, the price successfully unloaded the obvious overbought conditions on the (RSI), paving the way for more gains.On August 25th, Barclays and BNP Paribas predicted that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, citing a shift in Fed Chairman Powells stance on rising job market risks at the Jackson Hole conference. Barclays now expects two 25 basis point rate cuts, in September and December of this year, stating that Powells speech introduced an "accommodative bias" and raised the bar for not cutting rates. BNP Paribas also reversed its long-held view that the Fed would remain on hold, predicting rate cuts in both September and December. "Powell made it clear that the Fed intends to make a fine-tuning rate cut in September unless data indicate otherwise."According to RIA Novosti: Russian Defense Forces shot down 21 Ukrainian drones at night.Futures News, August 25th, Economies.com analysts latest view today: WTI crude oil futures prices fell slightly in the previous trading day. This decline is a natural move for prices to accumulate gains while trying to break out of the obvious overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially in the face of negative signals that may hinder its intraday recovery. From a technical perspective, positive pressure remains dominant, supported by stability above the EMA50 and influenced by positive technical patterns represented by a double bottom pattern in the short term. Unless the current support level holds, it will increase the possibility of a return of bullish momentum and a breakthrough of $63.75 in the coming period.

Weekly Fundamental Euro Forecast: September ECB Hike Odds Stay Elevated

Cory Russell

Aug 08, 2022 15:03

微信截图_20220727143334.png

A REVIEW OF EUROPE WEEK

The Euro gained ground versus six of its seven main peers during a generally favorable week. The EUR/JPY rate had the best performance, rising by +0.87 percent after suffering significant losses earlier in the week. The euro saw gains against the three currencies that make up commodities:


EUR/AUD rates rose by 0.68 percent, EUR/CAD rates rose by 0.63 percent, and EUR/NZD rates moved up by 0.29 percent. Rates for EUR/CHF also increased by 0.68 percent, marking their first increases after falling for seven straight weeks. Following the release of the July US employment data, EUR/USD rates were the lone decliner, falling by -0.45 percent.

QUIET EUROZONE ECONOMIC CALENDAR

The economic calendar for the Eurozone is considerably calmer than in recent weeks during the second week of August. Only one "high" rated data release is scheduled for the next days, while there are less than ten "medium" rated releases. The summer's "dog days" have arrived.


The following are the significant events on the Eurozone economic calendar for the next week:

The final July German inflation rate (HICP) data will be made public at 6 GMT on Wednesday, August 10. At 8 GMT, the final Italian inflation rate (HICP) data for July is expected.


The French IEA oil market report will be released at 8 GMT on Thursday, August 11.


The final French inflation rate (HICP) report will be announced at 6:45 GMT on Friday, August 12, while the 2Q'22 French unemployment rate will be released at 5:30 GMT. At 7 GMT, the last Spanish July inflation rate (HICP) announcement is expected. At 8 GMT, the June Italian trade balance data will be released. At 9 GMT, the June industrial output data for the Eurozone will be released.

EXPECTATIONS FOR ECB RATE HIKES EVOLVE

The European Central Bank has maintained a stance that implies the difference between the main interest rates of the ECB and other significant central banks will continue to close after underperforming for most of 2021 and 2022.


Rates markets are discounting a 100% likelihood of a 25 bps rate rise in September and an 88 percent possibility of a 50% rate hike, which would raise the ECB's main rate to 0.50 percent, after the central bank delivered a 50 bps rate hike in July, the greatest increase of this kind since 2000. The ECB's key rate is expected to increase to 1.13 percent by the end of 2022, according to rate markets. The ECB is still trying to strike a compromise between worries over multi-decade high inflation, slowing economy, and a revived Eurozone debt crisis.

10-YEAR YIELDS FOR FRENCH, GERMAN, GREEK, ITALIAN, PORTUGUESE, AND SPANISH (AUGUST 2020 TO AUGUST 2022) (CHART 1)

As of now, the ECB's efforts to stop bond market fragmentation, or the expansion of yield gaps as during the 2010s Eurozone debt crisis, are succeeding. The Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), an anti-fragmentation instrument that allows the ECB to sell part of its core debt holdings and use the profits to buy peripheral debt, only seems to have been implemented lately. If the Euro is to have any chance of launching a more major rise over the coming months, the ECB's attempts to stop yield spreads from expanding must continue to be successful.

Positioning for CFTC COT Euro Futures (August 2020 to August 2022) (CHART 2)

Regarding positioning, the CFTC's COT for the week ending August 2 shows that traders reduced their net-short holdings in the euro from 41,875 to 37,541 contracts. The eight-week stretch of net-short positioning for the euro is the longest since March 2020. There is still a chance for a rally to cover short positions.