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According to CNN: U.S. Vice President Vances motorcade departed from the White House at 6:13 p.m. local time on Monday (6:13 a.m. Beijing time on the 21st).On April 21st, the Dark Side of the Moon officially launched and open-sourced its new model, Kimi K2.6. According to the official benchmark results, its coding capabilities are on par with or surpass GPT 5.4 and Opus 4.6.US-Israel-Iran Conflict: ① Iran 1. Iran resumes flights at two airports. 2. Iranian official: Supreme Leader is in full health. 3. Iranian Parliament Speaker: Iran will not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats. 4. Iranian Foreign Minister tells Pakistani Foreign Minister that the USs "continued violation of the ceasefire" is the main obstacle to the continuation of the diplomatic process. 5. Iranian Armed Forces Spokesperson: We are prepared to confront the US after the US launched an "aggressive" action against an Iranian vessel. 6. Israeli media reports that Iran has softened its stance on abandoning its enriched uranium stockpile; the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded that the option of transferring Irans enriched uranium stockpile to the US or any other country is not on the agenda. 7. Irans Supreme Leader reiterated three basic positions: to hold those responsible for the attack accountable and demand compensation for the losses caused by the war, to push for a new phase in the management of the Strait of Hormuz, and to never relinquish its legitimate rights and regard all "resistance fronts" in the region as a unified whole. ② US 1. The US military says the blockade has forced 27 ships to turn back. 2. The US military admits to firing on and intercepting an Iranian cargo ship; footage of the incident has been released. 3. Trump: No pressure to reach an Iran deal, no external pressure. 4. Trump: The new agreement being reached with Iran will be much better than the Iran nuclear deal. 5. Trump claims to be winning the war and will not lift the blockade on Iran until an "agreement" is reached. ⑤ Strait of Hormuz 1. Iran pledges to ensure unimpeded passage of Russian ships through the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Indian government officials: As of now, 10 Indian ships have safely passed through the Strait of Hormuz. 3. Kuwait declares oil shipments affected by force majeure due to obstructed navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. 4. According to British sources on the 20th, at least 26 ships involved in Iranian shipping have broken through the US military blockade. ⑥ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. US President Trump: Vice President Vance will travel to Pakistan later on the 20th, and a new round of US-Iran negotiations is scheduled to begin on the 21st. 2. US media: Pakistan has intensified diplomatic contacts with Washington and Tehran since Sunday to ensure negotiations can begin as early as Tuesday. 3. Trump: "Highly unlikely" to extend the ceasefire agreement with Iran and expects to resume military operations against Iran immediately. The Strait of Hormuz will not be opened before an agreement is signed. 4. Pakistani security sources: Pakistani Army Chief of Staff Munir spoke with US President Trump, informing him that his blockade of Iranian ports was an obstacle to negotiations. Trump told Munir he would consider his suggestions. 5. Iranian parliamentary official: Iran has decided to continue negotiations with the US, but this "does not mean negotiating at all costs," nor does it mean accepting "any actions taken by the other side." If a positive signal is received from the US, the Iranian delegation will travel to Islamabad. 6. Iranian sources say the continued US naval blockade of Iran is a key obstacle to current negotiations. A senior Iranian official said Iran is actively reviewing its participation in peace talks with the US, but no final decision has been made yet. 7. Senior Iranian source: Disagreements over the nuclear program remain unresolved, and the gap has not narrowed. Irans "defense capabilities," including its missile program, are not within the scope of negotiations. 8. US media: Two senior Iranian officials revealed that the Iranian delegation plans to travel to Islamabad on Tuesday for negotiations with the US. The two officials stated that if US Vice President Vance attends the negotiations, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf will also be present. 9. According to Al Jazeera, citing Pakistani sources, the Iranian delegation is expected to arrive Tuesday morning, close to the arrival time of the US delegation. ④ Other situations: 1. Iranian Ambassador to Russia: Reports regarding Russia providing intelligence to Iran are untrue. 2. According to Saudi Arabias Al Arabiya television, Lebanon and Israel will hold a new round of negotiations on April 23.Google: Expanding Geminis availability in Chrome to users in the Asia-Pacific region.Irans chief negotiator: We do not accept negotiations under threat.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Weekly Forecasts – Bond Yields Hammer Equity Sentiment

Skylar Shaw

Apr 25, 2022 10:31

It's going to be a busy week for US firms reporting first-quarter profits, with familiar names like General Electric (GE), Microsoft (MSFT), Ford (F), Twitter (TWTR), Amazon (AMZN), and Apple (APPL) all due to release their latest quarterly financial reports. Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA) had drastically contrasting results this week, with Netflix (NFLX) falling over 35% on very low membership numbers and Tesla (TSLA) rising approximately 8% on strong sales and profitability. 


The fact that famed hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman sold his newly acquired Netflix position for a $400 million loss after the results does not bode well for other stay-at-home tech businesses. The earnings schedule for the next week might be full of surprises.

 

While the small print of firms' balance sheets will be scrutinized next week, the 800-pound monster in the room — US interest rates and government bond yields – will need even greater scrutiny. 


Market expectations for US rate rises have risen to the point that the market is now pricing in the Federal Reserve aggressively front-loading rate hikes, with four 50 basis point raises expected at the next four FOMC meetings. 


The last time the Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points was in May of 2000. While increased interest rates may help banks make more money, the IT industry, particularly the big names like Apple and Amazon, becomes less tempting as interest rates rise.


After Thursday's bearish engulfing candle erased the preceding three days' gains, the S&P 500 is expected to close the week flat. The 200-day simple moving average behaved as resistance, and the indices are currently trading below all three moving averages (20, 50, and 200), which is still another bad indicator. If support at 4,361 is firmly broken, 4,270 seems to be the next target.

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