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Bank of England Governor Bailey: Tariffs are not the right way to solve imbalances.On April 16th, the Federal Reserve stated that economic activity in most parts of the United States continued to grow at a modest to slight pace, as the war with Iran triggered a new wave of uncertainty and energy costs rose. In its Beige Book released Wednesday, the Fed noted that overall price increases remained moderate, but energy and fuel costs rose "significantly" in all 12 Fed districts. The Fed stated, "The Middle East conflict is seen as a major source of uncertainty, increasing complexity for businesses in hiring, pricing, and capital investment decisions, with many adopting a wait-and-see approach." The report, compiled by the New York Fed, uses data up to April 6th and reflects the initial impact of the war on the U.S. economy. The oil price shock triggered by the conflict pushed up gasoline prices, driving U.S. inflation to its largest increase since 2022 in March. Several Fed policymakers have signaled a preference for maintaining stable interest rates for an extended period to assess economic data.According to Futures News on April 16, as of the close of trading at 2:30 PM, the main Shanghai Gold futures contract fell by 0.38%, the main Shanghai Silver futures contract rose by 0.10%, and the main SC crude oil futures contract fell by 0.17%.April 16th - As of 2:30 PM closing, the Shanghai Gold futures contract fell 0.38% to 1056 yuan/gram, the Shanghai Silver futures contract rose 0.10% to 19664 yuan/kilogram, and the SC crude oil futures contract fell 0.17% to 634 yuan/barrel.On April 16, White House Press Secretary Janet Levitt did not specify how long the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports would last. “Regarding the blockade, as you know, the measures are fully implemented and are being enforced against all vessels of all countries entering and leaving Iranian ports,” Levitt said. “This includes all Iranian ports along the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.” She added, “We support freedom of navigation, but not any tankers or vessels that would benefit the Iranian economy, especially while negotiations are ongoing.”

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Weekly Forecasts – Bond Yields Hammer Equity Sentiment

Skylar Shaw

Apr 25, 2022 10:31

It's going to be a busy week for US firms reporting first-quarter profits, with familiar names like General Electric (GE), Microsoft (MSFT), Ford (F), Twitter (TWTR), Amazon (AMZN), and Apple (APPL) all due to release their latest quarterly financial reports. Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA) had drastically contrasting results this week, with Netflix (NFLX) falling over 35% on very low membership numbers and Tesla (TSLA) rising approximately 8% on strong sales and profitability. 


The fact that famed hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman sold his newly acquired Netflix position for a $400 million loss after the results does not bode well for other stay-at-home tech businesses. The earnings schedule for the next week might be full of surprises.

 

While the small print of firms' balance sheets will be scrutinized next week, the 800-pound monster in the room — US interest rates and government bond yields – will need even greater scrutiny. 


Market expectations for US rate rises have risen to the point that the market is now pricing in the Federal Reserve aggressively front-loading rate hikes, with four 50 basis point raises expected at the next four FOMC meetings. 


The last time the Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points was in May of 2000. While increased interest rates may help banks make more money, the IT industry, particularly the big names like Apple and Amazon, becomes less tempting as interest rates rise.


After Thursday's bearish engulfing candle erased the preceding three days' gains, the S&P 500 is expected to close the week flat. The 200-day simple moving average behaved as resistance, and the indices are currently trading below all three moving averages (20, 50, and 200), which is still another bad indicator. If support at 4,361 is firmly broken, 4,270 seems to be the next target.

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