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On January 12th, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius stated that the threat of criminal prosecution against the Federal Reserve Chairman will exacerbate market concerns about the central banks independence, but he expects the Fed to continue making policy decisions based on economic data. Speaking at the Goldman Sachs Global Strategy Conference in 2026, Hatzius said, "Clearly, concerns about a potential blow to the Feds independence are increasing, and the latest news regarding the criminal investigation of Chairman Powell has further reinforced these concerns." He added, "I have no doubt that Powell will continue to make decisions based on economic data for the remainder of his term, and will not be swayed in any direction by pressure—whether its raising or lowering interest rates, it will follow data guidance."On January 12th, ABN Amro economist Roger Quedflich stated in a report that the investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could jeopardize the Feds prospects for interest rate cuts in the near term. He pointed out that the challenge to the Feds independence could prompt Fed governors to take a hardline stance, delaying rate cut decisions to "defend the Fed." The investigation concerns cost overruns in a Fed headquarters renovation project, which Quedflich believes is seen as a means to pressure the Fed chairman and force his resignation, thereby expanding government influence. He stated, "If the situation continues to escalate, rate cuts may be postponed."On January 12th, ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole stated in a report that the dollar faces a significant risk of decline after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the Fed had received a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice for overspending on its headquarters renovations. He pointed out that this move has reignited market concerns about the Feds independence and could trigger another "sell-America" trade. Pesole stated, "Any further signs of interference in the Feds independence will pose a considerable downside risk to the dollar."ECB Governing Council member Mueller: There is no reason for further interest rate cuts in the short term.January 12th - According to the "Beijing Cyberspace Administration," as of January 12, 2026, Beijing has added 3 new generative artificial intelligence services that have completed registration, bringing the total number of registered generative artificial intelligence services to 212.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Weekly Forecasts – Bond Yields Hammer Equity Sentiment

Skylar Shaw

Apr 25, 2022 10:31

It's going to be a busy week for US firms reporting first-quarter profits, with familiar names like General Electric (GE), Microsoft (MSFT), Ford (F), Twitter (TWTR), Amazon (AMZN), and Apple (APPL) all due to release their latest quarterly financial reports. Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA) had drastically contrasting results this week, with Netflix (NFLX) falling over 35% on very low membership numbers and Tesla (TSLA) rising approximately 8% on strong sales and profitability. 


The fact that famed hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman sold his newly acquired Netflix position for a $400 million loss after the results does not bode well for other stay-at-home tech businesses. The earnings schedule for the next week might be full of surprises.

 

While the small print of firms' balance sheets will be scrutinized next week, the 800-pound monster in the room — US interest rates and government bond yields – will need even greater scrutiny. 


Market expectations for US rate rises have risen to the point that the market is now pricing in the Federal Reserve aggressively front-loading rate hikes, with four 50 basis point raises expected at the next four FOMC meetings. 


The last time the Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points was in May of 2000. While increased interest rates may help banks make more money, the IT industry, particularly the big names like Apple and Amazon, becomes less tempting as interest rates rise.


After Thursday's bearish engulfing candle erased the preceding three days' gains, the S&P 500 is expected to close the week flat. The 200-day simple moving average behaved as resistance, and the indices are currently trading below all three moving averages (20, 50, and 200), which is still another bad indicator. If support at 4,361 is firmly broken, 4,270 seems to be the next target.

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