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May 5th - According to three sources familiar with the matter, US intelligence assessments indicate that the timeline for Iran to develop nuclear weapons has remained unchanged since last summer. At that time, analysts estimated that the joint US-Israeli strikes had delayed this timeline by up to a year. This unchanged timeline suggests that effectively stopping Irans nuclear program may require the destruction or removal of Irans remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU). The sources stated that US intelligence agencies concluded before the 12-day war in June of last year that Iran was likely to produce enough weapons-grade uranium to build a nuclear weapon within three to six months. Following the June airstrikes, US intelligence assessments pushed this timeline back to approximately nine months to a year.According to the Wall Street Journal, "Big Short" Michael Burry has sold off his entire stake in GameStop (GME.N), after GameStop announced its intention to acquire eBay (EBAY.O).Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: With Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Warsh now serving as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, I believe the Feds culture and behavior will continue as they have been.US President Trump: Hundreds of millions of barrels of oil are flowing out of Venezuela.On May 5th, New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that the Feds current accommodative stance reflects the likely long-term direction of monetary policy, while inflation dynamics have not yet reached the point where a rate hike needs to be discussed. Speaking to reporters after a speech in New York City, Williams said, "I dont see any indication from todays data that a rate hike is necessary in the near term." However, he added that given the current level of uncertainty, he believes "we cannot yet provide clear guidance on the direction of interest rates at the next few meetings."

Prior to UK Employment, GBP/JPY Expects Gains Above 163.00

Alina Haynes

Mar 14, 2023 14:26

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In the early Asian session, the GBP/JPY pair is evaluating an intermediate cushion above 162.00 after detecting restrictions in the upside momentum above 163. As investors become concerned about the United Kingdom's labor cost index, which has occupied the Bank of England (BoE) with high inflation issues for the past year, the cross is expected to resume its upward trend.

 

The release of the UK's Employment data will be the primary catalyst for the British Pound in the near future. Claimant Count Change (Feb) is expected to decline by 12.4K compared to the previous release of 12.9K. The three-month Unemployment Rate is expected to increase to 3.8% from the previous release of 3.7%.

 

The primary catalyst will be the Average Earnings data, which is anticipated to decrease to 5.7% from the previous release of 5.9%. Investors should be aware that higher employment costs and persistent food price inflation in the British economy have fueled inflationary pressures. And now, a decline in the labor cost index will please Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who is losing sleep over devising a strategy to slow the double-digit inflation rate.

 

It is essential to observe that the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has repercussions outside of the United States. In a joint statement from the UK Treasury and the Bank of England (BOE) on Monday, Jeremy Hunt, the minister of finance, stated that "deposits will be protected without taxpayer support." The UK authorities have confirmed that HSBC has agreed to rescue Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) UK subsidiary. UK Hunt added, "These actions have no direct material impact on any other British institutions."

 

Following the announcement of unchanged monetary policy by former Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, investors are shifting their focus to BoJ Kazuo Ueda's commentary on the Yield Curve Control (YCC) and a transition to restrictive monetary policy.

 

Alvin Liew, senior economist at UOB Group, believes that Japan's exit from the YCC and negative interest rates are inevitable; the question is how Ueda will implement his plan. We anticipate a gradual, well-communicated change in Ueda's pace, as opposed to a sudden one. We see it as two primary steps: 1) Protracted adjustment to its forward guidance on YCC and interest rates (April to December 2023) and 2) Elimination of YCC and abolition of the negative policy rate in early 2024."


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