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On June 19, CICC Research reported that the Fed kept its June meeting on hold, in line with market expectations. Officials believe that policy uncertainty has decreased, but they still lowered their growth forecasts and raised their inflation path judgment. The dot plot retains the judgment of two interest rate cuts this year, but the details have become marginally "hawkish", showing the cautious view within the Fed. Powell remains cautious about inflation risks and said that no one has strong confidence in the interest rate path he wrote. We believe that the Fed has no intention of rushing to cut interest rates, and policymakers will not act rashly in the face of inflation if the economy allows waiting. We maintain our previous view that the Feds next interest rate cut may be in the fourth quarter.On June 19, according to the Israeli Air Force, in the early morning of the 19th local time, due to possible drone attacks, air defense alarms were sounded in many places in northern Israel and the Jordan Valley. Subsequently, the Israeli Air Force intercepted two drones launched from Iran. According to Iranian news, on the 19th local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned relevant personnel to evacuate immediately from a hotel in Tel Aviv, Israel. It is said that since the outbreak of this round of Israeli-Iranian conflict, Israels Channel 12 has been broadcasting in the hotel.June 19th news, early this morning, OpenAI released a 40-minute in-depth interview with its co-founder and CEO Sam Altman. This interview is very technical. Altman talked about the core product GPT-5 that everyone is very concerned about. It is likely to be released this summer, but the product time will be extended due to naming, security testing, function iteration and other reasons. It also talked about the high-performance o3 model and the intelligent agent Deep Research, and the importance of these products to the realization of AGI. In addition, Altman also mentioned OpenAIs other innovative products, including Sora, DALL-E 3, ChatGPT Junior and the $500 billion investment project "Stargate". Basically all of OpenAIs important products, current plans and future developments appeared in this interview.Japan bought -84.5 billion yen of foreign stocks in the week ending June 13, compared with -148.9 billion yen in the previous week.Foreign investors bought 434.5 billion yen of Japanese bonds in the week ending June 13, with the previous value revised from 219.8 billion yen to 220.4 billion yen.

As the US labor market strengthens and China CPI is anticipated, AUD / USD Appears Vulnerable Near 0.6600

Alina Haynes

Mar 09, 2023 13:59

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The AUD / USD pair is displaying a back-and-forth pattern during the Asian session below the round-level resistance of 0.6600. The Australian asset appears vulnerable at the same time that the risk-aversion theme has been strengthened by intensifying fears of a U.S. recession and expectations of higher rates from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

 

S&P500 futures are displaying nominal losses following a fragile recovery move. It seems that the dead cat recovery move by the 500-US stocks basket is tapering away. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned sideways above 105.20 after a modest correction; however, the upside appears favored amid positive U.S. Employment data.

 

The robust addition of new jobs to the US labor market in February as a result of rising demand has validated Fed policymakers' concerns about persistent inflation. The United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported an increase of 242K positions in February, exceeding both the expected increase of 200K and the previous release of 119K. As a result, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated, "The Fed is prepared to announce more rates to reduce inflation."

 

The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will be released on Friday, will provide investors with greater insight into the state of the US labor market. In addition, the dissemination of the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Wages will be crucial.

 

The Australian Dollar has been under intensified pressure following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) fifth consecutive 25 basis point (bps) rate hike and RBA Governor Philip Lowe's consideration of a policy-tightening suspension in response to a one-time blip in the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI).

 

Investors are currently focused on China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) (February) data. It is anticipated that China's annual CPI will decrease to 1.9% from the previous release of 2.1%. The monthly CPI in China has been reduced to 0.2% from 0.8% previously. If inflation declines, the Chinese government and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) may be forced to infuse more liquidity into the economy.


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