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May 5th - According to three sources familiar with the matter, US intelligence assessments indicate that the timeline for Iran to develop nuclear weapons has remained unchanged since last summer. At that time, analysts estimated that the joint US-Israeli strikes had delayed this timeline by up to a year. This unchanged timeline suggests that effectively stopping Irans nuclear program may require the destruction or removal of Irans remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU). The sources stated that US intelligence agencies concluded before the 12-day war in June of last year that Iran was likely to produce enough weapons-grade uranium to build a nuclear weapon within three to six months. Following the June airstrikes, US intelligence assessments pushed this timeline back to approximately nine months to a year.According to the Wall Street Journal, "Big Short" Michael Burry has sold off his entire stake in GameStop (GME.N), after GameStop announced its intention to acquire eBay (EBAY.O).Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: With Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Warsh now serving as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, I believe the Feds culture and behavior will continue as they have been.US President Trump: Hundreds of millions of barrels of oil are flowing out of Venezuela.On May 5th, New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that the Feds current accommodative stance reflects the likely long-term direction of monetary policy, while inflation dynamics have not yet reached the point where a rate hike needs to be discussed. Speaking to reporters after a speech in New York City, Williams said, "I dont see any indication from todays data that a rate hike is necessary in the near term." However, he added that given the current level of uncertainty, he believes "we cannot yet provide clear guidance on the direction of interest rates at the next few meetings."

As the US labor market strengthens and China CPI is anticipated, AUD / USD Appears Vulnerable Near 0.6600

Alina Haynes

Mar 09, 2023 13:59

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The AUD / USD pair is displaying a back-and-forth pattern during the Asian session below the round-level resistance of 0.6600. The Australian asset appears vulnerable at the same time that the risk-aversion theme has been strengthened by intensifying fears of a U.S. recession and expectations of higher rates from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

 

S&P500 futures are displaying nominal losses following a fragile recovery move. It seems that the dead cat recovery move by the 500-US stocks basket is tapering away. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned sideways above 105.20 after a modest correction; however, the upside appears favored amid positive U.S. Employment data.

 

The robust addition of new jobs to the US labor market in February as a result of rising demand has validated Fed policymakers' concerns about persistent inflation. The United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported an increase of 242K positions in February, exceeding both the expected increase of 200K and the previous release of 119K. As a result, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated, "The Fed is prepared to announce more rates to reduce inflation."

 

The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will be released on Friday, will provide investors with greater insight into the state of the US labor market. In addition, the dissemination of the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Wages will be crucial.

 

The Australian Dollar has been under intensified pressure following the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) fifth consecutive 25 basis point (bps) rate hike and RBA Governor Philip Lowe's consideration of a policy-tightening suspension in response to a one-time blip in the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI).

 

Investors are currently focused on China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) (February) data. It is anticipated that China's annual CPI will decrease to 1.9% from the previous release of 2.1%. The monthly CPI in China has been reduced to 0.2% from 0.8% previously. If inflation declines, the Chinese government and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) may be forced to infuse more liquidity into the economy.


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