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On September 17th, Investec Economics analyst Sandra Horsfield stated in a report that the UKs headline inflation rate remained unchanged at a high 3.8% in August, increasing the likelihood that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2025. Currently, UK inflation remains well above the Bank of Englands 2% target. Horsfield stated, "Only evidence of declining inflation will convince the majority of the Monetary Policy Committee that further rate cuts are appropriate." Data from the London Stock Exchange Group indicates that the market believes there is a 40% probability of another Bank of England rate cut before the end of 2025.How much will the Fed cut tonight? Lock in the app and book a live broadcast of Powells press conference with simultaneous interpretation!On September 17th, Japans ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) announced that its presidential election will be held early next month. The partys presidential election committee announced the election schedule, detailing the candidate press conferences, policy discussions, and local speeches. With the countdown to the election announcement approaching, the campaign is set to officially begin next week. Following Prime Minister and LDP President Shigeru Ishibas resignation on the 7th, the LDP announced that the presidential election announcement will be released on September 22nd, with votes being counted on October 4th.According to RIA Novosti: Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the phone to discuss the Ukrainian issue.Bank of Canada: Will pay attention to how the trade war affects exports, investment and prices.

Once the RBA minutes are made public, it is anticipated that AUD/NZD will once again test the day's low near 1.1110

Daniel Rogers

Oct 18, 2022 14:11

 截屏2022-10-18 上午9.51.22.png

 

The AUD/NZD pair lost its intraday rally after tumbling to roughly 1.1106 during the early session in Tokyo. The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) minutes' release has weighed on the cross. According to the monetary policy minutes from October, concerns about domestic and international growth risks led to the announcement of a rate increase of 25 basis points (bps), which was less than expected.

 

Additionally, RBA policymakers think the central bank has raised interest rates quickly, which could have an impact on household expenditure.

 

Australia has had the lowest unemployment rate in its economic history, at 3.5% during the past 50 years, thanks to a healthy labor market. While core inflation has remained high because of rising service prices, the drop in oil prices has put downward pressure on headline inflation.

 

Moving forward, attention will be focused on the employment statistics for Australia. The consensus predicts that the Employment Change will drop from 33.5k to 25k. At 3.5%, the unemployment rate won't change.

 

The cross declined in early Tokyo after the announcement of higher-than-expected inflation data for New Zealand. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 7.2%, which was much higher than expected but marginally lower than the 7.3% reported in the prior report. While the quarterly inflation rate came in at 2.2%, exceeding both the 1.6% estimate and the 1.7% reading from the previous quarter, it was below the 1.7% figure from the previous quarter.

 

Given that price pressures have not abated as anticipated, it is now more likely that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will continue to raise interest rates at the current pace. 3.5% is the Official Cash Rate (OCR).


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