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While hawkish Fed bets strain DXY bears, EUR/USD falls toward 0.9800 as EU/German ZEW data is scrutinized

Daniel Rogers

Oct 18, 2022 14:17

截屏2022-10-18 上午9.52.16.png 

 

The EUR/USD is holding steady near the eight-day high during Tuesday's Asian session after recently falling to 0.9840 as investors look for more evidence to support the previous day's gain. Because of this, today's European and German ZEW numbers for October will be essential for giving the global economy a boost.

 

The recent immobility of the main currency pair may be linked to a conflict between the risk-on mentality and the aggressive Fed discourse. Another issue for EUR/USD traders is a light calendar in the US.

 

Pair purchasers will benefit from Germany's denial of recession fears and the ECB's officials' forceful rhetoric. The EUR/USD values are also fueled by the general US dollar depreciation brought on by waning concerns over the collapse of the UK market. Depressing US numbers also contribute to the upward trend. As a result, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for October decreased by -9.5 instead of the expected -4.0 and -1.5.

 

In contrast, hawkish Fed predictions and worries about market intervention in China and Japan seem to pose a challenge to EUR/USD buyers. Despite this, CME's FedWatch Tool forecasts a probability of about 95% for a 75 basis point Fed rate hike in November. The US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's upbeat comments, which suggested a strong US labor market, as well as the upbeat US inflation expectations suggested by the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), may have served as inspiration for the tool.

 

It should be noted that China's zero-covid policy, its decision to delay the release of important facts or events, and its determination to protect its potential to annex Taiwan and Hong Kong all offer challenges to the pair's rising trend.

 

S&P 500 Futures track Wall Street's advances in the midst of these transactions, but US 10-year Treasury yields decline to 3.99%, testing the US Dollar Index (DXY) bearish recently.

 

Germany's ZEW figures are anticipated to be weaker in October than the sentiment index for the Eurozone, which could alarm EUR/USD traders and present possibilities for intraday sells. However, the danger triggers for apparent directions will receive significant attention.


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