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On May 6, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee met with reporters before attending the Executive Council today (6th), and said that he will visit two Middle Eastern countries, Qatar and Kuwait, on May 10. John Lee said that this is his second visit to Middle Eastern countries since he took office. During this visit, he will meet with government representatives from Qatar and Kuwait to strengthen the cooperation model between the two sides and bring more people-to-people exchanges and contacts. For the first time, he will lead more than 50 business people to participate, including more than 30 Hong Kong business people and more than 20 mainland entrepreneurs.On May 6, Anders Persson, chief investment officer and global fixed income director at Nuveen in North Carolina, said, "We are currently neutral on U.S. Treasuries and prefer the front end of the yield curve because I expect this part to be relatively stable for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In the face of policy uncertainty and unclear prospects, we are not willing to make large bets."On May 6, Morgan Stanley published a research report stating that it believes that the share price of AIA (01299.HK) will have a 70% to 80% chance of rising in the next 30 days. The bank said that the groups first quarter performance was better than expected. Due to the expansion of annualized new premiums (APE) and improved profit margins, the group set a new quarterly performance record last year. At a constant exchange rate (CER), the value of new business (VNB) increased by 13%. Morgan Stanley believes that AIA will continue to provide overall healthy double-digit growth for the rest of the year, and the current valuation is still low, so it is quite attractive. It gives it a target price of HK$81 and a rating of overweight.Futures News on May 6: During the May Day holiday, due to the significant increase in production by OPEC+, the market was concerned about oversupply, which led to a weak decline in oil prices. In addition, the market is more concerned about the subsequent third quarter, because some countries that have reduced production have not complied with the production reduction regulations, which will prompt Saudi Arabia and other countries to continue to increase production, which will increase the decline in oil prices. Zhuochuang Information predicts that the next meeting will be in early June. Before that, it is necessary to pay attention to changes in inventory levels and maintain a weak market in the short term. After all, after the increase in production, the market lacks positive factors.Indonesia expects trade deal negotiations with the European Union to be completed in the first half of the year.

While hawkish Fed bets strain DXY bears, EUR/USD falls toward 0.9800 as EU/German ZEW data is scrutinized

Daniel Rogers

Oct 18, 2022 14:17

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The EUR/USD is holding steady near the eight-day high during Tuesday's Asian session after recently falling to 0.9840 as investors look for more evidence to support the previous day's gain. Because of this, today's European and German ZEW numbers for October will be essential for giving the global economy a boost.

 

The recent immobility of the main currency pair may be linked to a conflict between the risk-on mentality and the aggressive Fed discourse. Another issue for EUR/USD traders is a light calendar in the US.

 

Pair purchasers will benefit from Germany's denial of recession fears and the ECB's officials' forceful rhetoric. The EUR/USD values are also fueled by the general US dollar depreciation brought on by waning concerns over the collapse of the UK market. Depressing US numbers also contribute to the upward trend. As a result, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for October decreased by -9.5 instead of the expected -4.0 and -1.5.

 

In contrast, hawkish Fed predictions and worries about market intervention in China and Japan seem to pose a challenge to EUR/USD buyers. Despite this, CME's FedWatch Tool forecasts a probability of about 95% for a 75 basis point Fed rate hike in November. The US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's upbeat comments, which suggested a strong US labor market, as well as the upbeat US inflation expectations suggested by the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), may have served as inspiration for the tool.

 

It should be noted that China's zero-covid policy, its decision to delay the release of important facts or events, and its determination to protect its potential to annex Taiwan and Hong Kong all offer challenges to the pair's rising trend.

 

S&P 500 Futures track Wall Street's advances in the midst of these transactions, but US 10-year Treasury yields decline to 3.99%, testing the US Dollar Index (DXY) bearish recently.

 

Germany's ZEW figures are anticipated to be weaker in October than the sentiment index for the Eurozone, which could alarm EUR/USD traders and present possibilities for intraday sells. However, the danger triggers for apparent directions will receive significant attention.


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