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1. Monday: ① Data: Chinas June M2 money supply annual rate (TBD). ② Event: OPEC releases its monthly oil market report (specific release time to be determined, generally around 6-9 PM Beijing time). 2. Tuesday: ① Data: US June NFIB Small Business Confidence Index, ADP Employment Change, US June CPI and Core CPI data; Chinas June trade balance. ② Event: Fed Governor Waller speaks; State Council Information Office holds press conference on import and export situation in the first half of 2026; Fed Chairman Warsh attends hearing on the House Financial Services Committees "Federal Reserve Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report" [simultaneous interpretation]. ③ Earnings Reports: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo (pre-market). 3. 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Economists expect the CPI to rise by 3.4% in the 12 months ending in December, up from 3.2% in the April survey. Inflation concerns have outweighed the wars boost to energy costs. Economists predict that PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy and is closely watched by Federal Reserve officials, will rise by 3.2% in 2026, up from 2.9% in April.July 12th - In response to the impact of the typhoon on communication networks, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) closely monitored weather changes and network operation, urgently dispatched national emergency communication support teams and equipment, and activated 5G inter-network roaming services to support the communication needs of flood control and disaster relief command centers and affected residents. According to statistics, as of 12:00 on July 12th, the information and communication industry had deployed 68,000 personnel, 24,000 emergency communication vehicles, 31,000 generators, 130 satellite phones, and 27 drones, sending 330 million warning text messages. A total of 11,000 damaged base stations have been restored.On July 12, Liu Guozhong, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, conducted research in Beijing. He emphasized the need to thoroughly study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinpings important instructions and directives, as well as the spirit of the Political Bureau meeting, and to implement the arrangements of the State Councils executive meeting. He stressed the importance of firmly establishing a bottom-line mentality and a mindset of extreme limits, fully implementing political responsibilities, meticulously implementing measures to prevent and respond to torrential rains and floods, making every effort to ensure the safe passage of reservoirs through the flood season, and effectively safeguarding the lives and property of the people.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed replacing Prime Minister Sviridenko.

While hawkish Fed bets strain DXY bears, EUR/USD falls toward 0.9800 as EU/German ZEW data is scrutinized

Daniel Rogers

Oct 18, 2022 14:17

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The EUR/USD is holding steady near the eight-day high during Tuesday's Asian session after recently falling to 0.9840 as investors look for more evidence to support the previous day's gain. Because of this, today's European and German ZEW numbers for October will be essential for giving the global economy a boost.

 

The recent immobility of the main currency pair may be linked to a conflict between the risk-on mentality and the aggressive Fed discourse. Another issue for EUR/USD traders is a light calendar in the US.

 

Pair purchasers will benefit from Germany's denial of recession fears and the ECB's officials' forceful rhetoric. The EUR/USD values are also fueled by the general US dollar depreciation brought on by waning concerns over the collapse of the UK market. Depressing US numbers also contribute to the upward trend. As a result, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for October decreased by -9.5 instead of the expected -4.0 and -1.5.

 

In contrast, hawkish Fed predictions and worries about market intervention in China and Japan seem to pose a challenge to EUR/USD buyers. Despite this, CME's FedWatch Tool forecasts a probability of about 95% for a 75 basis point Fed rate hike in November. The US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's upbeat comments, which suggested a strong US labor market, as well as the upbeat US inflation expectations suggested by the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), may have served as inspiration for the tool.

 

It should be noted that China's zero-covid policy, its decision to delay the release of important facts or events, and its determination to protect its potential to annex Taiwan and Hong Kong all offer challenges to the pair's rising trend.

 

S&P 500 Futures track Wall Street's advances in the midst of these transactions, but US 10-year Treasury yields decline to 3.99%, testing the US Dollar Index (DXY) bearish recently.

 

Germany's ZEW figures are anticipated to be weaker in October than the sentiment index for the Eurozone, which could alarm EUR/USD traders and present possibilities for intraday sells. However, the danger triggers for apparent directions will receive significant attention.


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