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Futures Market News, April 1st: 1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 1,351,483 lots, an increase of 372,279 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 2,031,325 lots, an increase of 2,417 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 213,541 lots, an increase of 43,528 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 298,303 lots, a decrease of 1,923 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 487,441 lots, an increase of 171,828 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,514,966 lots, an increase of 7,285 lots from the previous trading day.On April 1st, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) abruptly ordered a crackdown on rupee put options on Friday evening, triggering emergency liquidations in the banking sector and putting up to $30 billion in arbitrage trading under pressure. After trading resumed on Monday, the market panicked over a liquidity crunch. Sources estimated that banks liquidated between $4 billion and $10 billion in positions that day. This means that the vast majority of these positions remain to be liquidated before the April 10th deadline. Because the Indian foreign exchange market was closed for holidays on Tuesday and Wednesday, Mondays liquidation wave caused the rupee to fall to a record low of 94.80, marking the largest intraday fluctuation since 2013. This intervention by the central bank is one of the toughest measures against currency speculation in a decade. Despite Trumps signals of a possible withdrawal from Iran, the high oil prices resulting from the Iran war continue to push up Indias trade deficit and inflation. Analysts from institutions such as Wells Fargo warn that a rupee falling to 100 to the US dollar is almost a certainty. Currently, as banks are forced to buy dollars domestically to cover their short positions overseas, the onshore-offshore forward spread has surged to its highest level since 2020.The yield on 40-year Japanese government bonds fell 12.0 basis points to 3.795%.April 1st, Futures News: Economies.com analysts latest view: Spot gold has recorded consecutive gains in recent intraday trading, mainly benefiting from dynamic support above the EMA50 moving average. This further strengthens the dominance of the short-term corrective upward wave, especially as the price moves along the support trendline, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also releases positive signals. These factors collectively support the continuation of bullish momentum. However, we note that these technical indicators have entered severely overbought territory, which may limit further gains and push prices towards a slowdown or consolidation in the short term.April 1st, Futures News: Economies.com analysts latest view: WTI crude oil futures have risen again in recent intraday trading and are preparing to test the strong resistance level of $100.00. The current price continues to trade above the 50-day EMA, finding dynamic support and further solidifying the stability of the short-term uptrend, especially given that the price is moving along the support trendline. We also note that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is beginning to show a positive golden cross signal, after it had previously entered deep oversold territory, contrasting with the price action. This phenomenon suggests that the market may be forming a positive divergence, thereby increasing the probability of continued upward price movement in the near future.

Oil costs increase as supply restrictions trump economic worries

Charlie Brooks

Jul 05, 2022 11:12


Oil prices climbed on Monday as supply worries spurred by a decrease in OPEC production, unrest in Libya, and sanctions against Russia trumped fears of a worldwide recession that would diminish demand.


In June, Euro zone inflation hit an all-time high, boosting the case for rapid rate rises by the European Central Bank, while consumer sentiment in the United States reached an all-time low.


Brent oil rose $2.26, or 2%, to $113.89 a barrel as of 12:47 p.m. ET (1648 GMT), after shedding more than $1 in early trading. The price of U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.20, or 2%, to $110.63 despite the lack of trading activity over the Fourth of July holiday.


According to a Reuters survey, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) failed to meet its June goal of increasing production.


Thursday, authorities in OPEC member Libya declared force majeure at the Es Sidr and Ras Lanuf ports and the El Feel oilfield, claiming a reduction of 865,000 barrels per day in oil output (bpd).


Meanwhile, more than two weeks of unrest have caused Ecuador to lose almost 2 million barrels of production, according to Petroecuador, the country's state-owned oil company.


This week, a strike in Norway may restrict supply from the biggest oil producer in Western Europe and reduce overall petroleum production by 8 percent.


"This background of rising supply interruptions clashes with a probable shortage of spare production capacity among Middle Eastern oil producers," said Stephen Brennock of oil trader PVM, referring to the producers' limited ability to pump more oil.


And prices will climb if new oil production does not reach the market shortly.


On Monday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson asked OPEC+ to raise oil output to tackle the growing cost of living.


As a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, supply concerns have sent Brent oil prices close to 2008's record high of $147 a barrel.


As a consequence of restrictions on Russian oil and limited gas supplies, surging energy prices have driven inflation in certain countries to multi-decade highs and stoked fears of a recession.