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On July 13th, Barclays stated that although oil prices have fallen significantly from their peak during the Iran conflict, its inflation forecasts have deteriorated. In a report to clients, the bank stated that the Federal Reserves policy path of keeping interest rates unchanged this year, rather than raising them, has narrowed considerably in recent months. However, the bank added that this remains its base case scenario. The oil price shocks have come and gone, but inflation has not, due to the current overall strength of the US economy; therefore, the decline in oil prices cannot relieve the Federal Reserve of its inflation concerns.Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: The escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend put pressure on London spot gold in early trading on Monday. Looking back at last week, gold prices both domestically and internationally experienced increased volatility, continuing their weekly decline. Spot gold fell 1.51% for the week, while the Shanghai Gold Futures contract fell 1.48%. Geopolitically, a new round of conflict erupted between the US and Iran. With both sides intensifying their attacks, the risk of unrestricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has increased again. Rising oil prices and inflation expectations have contributed to short-term weakness in gold prices. 1. Macroeconomic Overview: Disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy communication methods are surfacing. Governor Waller stated that forward guidance remains a valuable policy tool, contrasting with Warshs stance. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on July 15th. This hearing will focus on the Feds semi-annual monetary policy report submitted to Congress, potentially providing some guidance on interest rates and the direction of monetary policy. 2. The precious metals market will face a double test with Warshs congressional debut and CPI data releases. On July 14th, the US June CPI will be released on the same day as Warshs House hearing, followed by the PPI data release on the 15th, after which Warsh will testify before the Senate. The resonance between inflation data and policy signals will influence precious metal price movements. With the US and Iran entering a second round of conflict, the market initially returned to trading based on rising inflation and interest rate expectations. However, judging from the weekly performance of oil and gold prices, the sustainability of this conflict is not optimistic. Furthermore, there were no further positive factors to drive a significant rebound in gold prices; the overall trend remains weak and corrective. This indicates that the current bottoming-out range for gold is not stable. With geopolitical factors and Fed policies repeatedly intertwined, there is significant divergence between bulls and bears, requiring continued caution.US President Trump: 59% approval rating. Inflation is declining, and oil and gas prices are also falling.July 13th - To continue preparations for Typhoon Bavi, the 9th typhoon of the year, the Shenyang Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters in Liaoning Province has activated a Level II emergency response for flood control across the city. Based on the announcement issued on July 12th, the Shenyang Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters has decided to add the following emergency evacuation measures: All government agencies and enterprises (except those ensuring basic urban operations) should, in principle, work from home, minimize outings, and ensure safety. The Shenyang Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters has organized 12 departments, including emergency management, public security, meteorology, water resources, urban construction, urban management law enforcement, natural resources, agriculture and rural affairs, fire protection, and power supply, to jointly command and coordinate the prevention and response to heavy rainfall. More than 3,500 flood control personnel at the city, district/county, township (street), and village (community) levels are all on duty and continuously carrying out emergency rescue and drainage work.As of 8:30 on July 13, 2026, Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil and other commodities saw the largest fluctuations. A chart reviews the overnight price changes in the international market and their corresponding theoretical mappings in the domestic market.

Oil costs increase as supply restrictions trump economic worries

Charlie Brooks

Jul 05, 2022 11:12


Oil prices climbed on Monday as supply worries spurred by a decrease in OPEC production, unrest in Libya, and sanctions against Russia trumped fears of a worldwide recession that would diminish demand.


In June, Euro zone inflation hit an all-time high, boosting the case for rapid rate rises by the European Central Bank, while consumer sentiment in the United States reached an all-time low.


Brent oil rose $2.26, or 2%, to $113.89 a barrel as of 12:47 p.m. ET (1648 GMT), after shedding more than $1 in early trading. The price of U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.20, or 2%, to $110.63 despite the lack of trading activity over the Fourth of July holiday.


According to a Reuters survey, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) failed to meet its June goal of increasing production.


Thursday, authorities in OPEC member Libya declared force majeure at the Es Sidr and Ras Lanuf ports and the El Feel oilfield, claiming a reduction of 865,000 barrels per day in oil output (bpd).


Meanwhile, more than two weeks of unrest have caused Ecuador to lose almost 2 million barrels of production, according to Petroecuador, the country's state-owned oil company.


This week, a strike in Norway may restrict supply from the biggest oil producer in Western Europe and reduce overall petroleum production by 8 percent.


"This background of rising supply interruptions clashes with a probable shortage of spare production capacity among Middle Eastern oil producers," said Stephen Brennock of oil trader PVM, referring to the producers' limited ability to pump more oil.


And prices will climb if new oil production does not reach the market shortly.


On Monday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson asked OPEC+ to raise oil output to tackle the growing cost of living.


As a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, supply concerns have sent Brent oil prices close to 2008's record high of $147 a barrel.


As a consequence of restrictions on Russian oil and limited gas supplies, surging energy prices have driven inflation in certain countries to multi-decade highs and stoked fears of a recession.


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