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June 16 – A press conference for the 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions of the World Economic Forum, also known as the Summer Davos Forum, will be held in Beijing today. The 2026 Summer Davos Forum is scheduled to be held in Dalian, Liaoning Province, from June 23 to 25. Participants come from more than 90 countries and regions worldwide, with total registered participants exceeding 1,700, setting a new record. The forum, themed "Innovation at Scale," will focus on a series of topics related to global innovation trends and industrial transformation and upgrading, gathering wisdom from various sectors to inject momentum into promoting global economic recovery and sustained growth.1. Interest Rate Adjustment – The market widely expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 1%, the highest level in 31 years. The Bank of Japans last rate hike will be in December 2025. 2. Voting Participation – The governor was absent due to illness, and only 8 people voted at this meeting. In the event of a 4-4 tie, Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino, who chaired the meeting, will have the decisive vote. 3. Voting Ratio – The market widely expects all voting members to support the rate hike; however, Toshiro Asada, who holds a reflationary stance, may not support the rate hike, and some may propose a 50 basis point increase. 4. Forward Guidance – The market is focused on whether the Bank of Japan will adjust its forward guidance. The current wording is "Given that real interest rates are at a significantly low level, the central bank will continue to raise interest rates and adjust the degree of monetary easing." 5. Cessation of QT – Japanese media reports that the Bank of Japan will announce that it will stop reducing the monthly bond purchase program starting next April. This move may be seen as a "political deal with the government" and will affect the Bank of Japans independence. 6. Press Conference – The Bank of Japan Governor was absent due to illness, and Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida held a press conference on his behalf. The market is focused on whether Uchida will hint at a possible second consecutive interest rate hike in July and his views on bond-buying policy.Chinas May industrial value-added and total retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year figures will be released in ten minutes.June 16th - Today, the Ministry of Finance issued the third tranche of RMB treasury bonds for 2026 in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, with an issuance size of RMB 15 billion. Following this issuance, the total amount of RMB treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance in Hong Kong this year will reach RMB 44.5 billion. Looking at the overall issuance plan for this year, with the approval of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance will issue RMB 84 billion of RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong in six tranches this year.According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen rose 0.6% month-on-month in May (up 0.3% in the previous month) and fell 5.5% year-on-year (down 6.5% in the previous month).

Oil costs increase as supply restrictions trump economic worries

Charlie Brooks

Jul 05, 2022 11:12


Oil prices climbed on Monday as supply worries spurred by a decrease in OPEC production, unrest in Libya, and sanctions against Russia trumped fears of a worldwide recession that would diminish demand.


In June, Euro zone inflation hit an all-time high, boosting the case for rapid rate rises by the European Central Bank, while consumer sentiment in the United States reached an all-time low.


Brent oil rose $2.26, or 2%, to $113.89 a barrel as of 12:47 p.m. ET (1648 GMT), after shedding more than $1 in early trading. The price of U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.20, or 2%, to $110.63 despite the lack of trading activity over the Fourth of July holiday.


According to a Reuters survey, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) failed to meet its June goal of increasing production.


Thursday, authorities in OPEC member Libya declared force majeure at the Es Sidr and Ras Lanuf ports and the El Feel oilfield, claiming a reduction of 865,000 barrels per day in oil output (bpd).


Meanwhile, more than two weeks of unrest have caused Ecuador to lose almost 2 million barrels of production, according to Petroecuador, the country's state-owned oil company.


This week, a strike in Norway may restrict supply from the biggest oil producer in Western Europe and reduce overall petroleum production by 8 percent.


"This background of rising supply interruptions clashes with a probable shortage of spare production capacity among Middle Eastern oil producers," said Stephen Brennock of oil trader PVM, referring to the producers' limited ability to pump more oil.


And prices will climb if new oil production does not reach the market shortly.


On Monday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson asked OPEC+ to raise oil output to tackle the growing cost of living.


As a consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, supply concerns have sent Brent oil prices close to 2008's record high of $147 a barrel.


As a consequence of restrictions on Russian oil and limited gas supplies, surging energy prices have driven inflation in certain countries to multi-decade highs and stoked fears of a recession.