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On June 18th, OCBC Group Research analysts stated in a report that the Central Bank of Indonesia and the Central Bank of the Philippines are likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each later on Thursday. The Federal Reserves decision to maintain interest rates likely indicates that these Southeast Asian central banks believe short-term capital flow volatility will persist, and in this context, their policy decisions will remain primarily driven by inflation and macroeconomic stability factors. OCBC noted that the expected rate hike by the Central Bank of Indonesia will be consistent with its policy objective of preventing further deterioration of market sentiment.On June 18th, Federal Reserve officials hinted on Wednesday that they may soon need to raise interest rates rather than cut them, a sharp shift in thinking against the backdrop of rapidly rising inflation. Krishna Guha, an analyst at Evercore ISI, said that the decline in energy prices could provide some relief in the coming months. However, he warned that the interest rate outlook has decoupled from oil prices, suggesting a deeper uncertainty about whether underlying inflation will cool enough that the Fed will not ultimately have to raise rates. Guha stated that in addition to energy, two other pressures remain: the continued transmission effects of tariffs and the cost spillover from the investment boom in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Claudia Sam, chief economist at New Century Advisors and a former Fed economist, said that she has not yet seen the conditions that would typically prompt the Fed to respond to supply-driven inflation—an overheated labor market or a loss of anchor in inflation expectations. But she acknowledged that the case for action is accumulating. “I can understand the view that the Fed should be prepared to intervene and raise rates if things worsen,” she said. The Fed may act faster than it did during the pandemic when inflation surged because “they are already having this debate.”According to TASS, the local mayor said that drones attacked a Moscow oil refinery.On June 18th, at the opening of the 2026 Hong Kong Auto Show, Geely Remote New Energy Commercial Vehicle and Cao Cao Mobility (02643.HK) reached a strategic cooperation agreement to jointly promote the large-scale deployment of Robovans. According to the plan, by 2030, the two companies will have deployed a total of 100,000 Geely Remote Robovan Prodigy T6 vehicles. Guided by the "One Geely" strategy, the two companies will accelerate the construction of an intelligent logistics network for the AI era through deep collaboration in the operation of new energy commercial vehicles and logistics scenarios, jointly creating a comprehensive green and intelligent transportation new energy ecosystem solution.On June 18, Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office and Spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated at a press conference that achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is not only an inevitable requirement for achieving high-quality development and promoting modernization in harmony with nature, but also a solemn commitment my country, as a responsible major power, has made to the international community. We will work with relevant departments and local governments to simultaneously address both existing and new carbon emissions. Regarding existing carbon emissions, we will focus on nine key industries, including steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power, implementing a three-year action plan for energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation, creating more space for new projects in high-energy-consuming and high-polluting sectors to implement carbon emission replacement at the same or reduced level. Regarding new carbon emissions, we will promote the optimization of energy structure in new projects, actively develop new models such as green direct supply, increase the proportion of non-fossil energy use, and reduce carbon emission levels. Next, we will encourage local governments to expand investment in zero-carbon industrial parks and zero-carbon transportation corridors, accelerate the realization of new clean energy power generation covering the entire societys new electricity demand, and continuously cultivate new drivers for green and low-carbon development.

Fears of a recession continue to weigh on oil prices, although a tightened supply mitigates losses

Aria Thomas

Jul 04, 2022 11:37


Oil prices dipped in early Asian trade on Monday, erasing the previous session's gains, as fears of a global recession weighed on the market despite the fact that supply remains tight due to lower OPEC output, unrest in Libya, and sanctions against Russia.


Brent crude futures declined 35 cents, or 0.3%, to $111.28 a barrel at 00:16 GMT on Saturday, following a Friday increase of 2.4%.


Futures for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 32 cents, or 0.3%, to $108.11 a barrel on Monday, after gaining 2.5% on Friday.


Fears of a recession have weighed on the market during the past two weeks, although supply concerns have prevented further price drops.


Tobin Gorey, a commodities analyst at Commonwealth Bank, observed, "Energy markets continue to be plagued by distinct supply risks, making shorting a nerve-racking exercise."


In June, the production of the 10 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) declined by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 28.52 million barrels per day (bpd), a far cry from the 275,000 bpd increase they had expected.


Increases in Saudi Arabia and other major producers were offset by losses in Nigeria and Libya, and Libya faces additional supply disruptions as a result of rising political unrest.


Analysts at ANZ Research noted in a note, "This makes it even less likely that (OPEC) will be able to meet its newly increased output limits."


Last week, the National Oil Corp estimated that Libya's exports have reduced to between 365,000 and 409,000 bpd, a decrease of around 865,000 bpd compared to normal levels.


This week, a planned strike by Norwegian oil and gas workers may lower the nation's oil and condensate production by 130,000 barrels per day (bpd).


Traders will closely follow official oil prices for August from the world's largest oil supplier, Saudi Arabia, for signals of market tightness, with refiners anticipating another high increase close to the record established in May.


According to nine refinery sources evaluated by Reuters, the official selling price of Saudi Arabia's flagship Arab Light oil may rise by around $2.40 per barrel compared to the previous month.