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November 2nd - Investors and economists widely expect the Bank of England to pause interest rate cuts at its meeting next Thursday, ending its more than year-long pattern of quarterly rate cuts. The UK inflation rate is currently close to double the 2% target, and the autumn budget will be announced on November 26th, making policymakers more cautious. However, this pause may only be temporary. Recent weaker-than-expected inflation, employment, and output data have led to a significant increase in market bets on a December rate cut. While investors currently believe a rate cut this week is unlikely, the probability of a cut on December 18th has risen to nearly 60%. Bank of England Governor Bailey has warned that the timing of the next rate cut remains uncertain, especially given that this meeting comes just three weeks after Chancellor Reeves announced the key budget. Reeves previously raised employer payroll tax in April, which was criticized for driving up food prices. If the budget includes another large-scale tax increase targeting households, it could further damage the already weak UK economy.November 2nd - On November 1st, SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle announced that in October 2025, the retail sales of Roewe and MG vehicles exceeded 84,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 3%.Russian regional authorities say a Ukrainian drone strike damaged an oil tanker at the Russian Black Sea port of Tuapse.On November 2nd, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated on November 1st that Russian forces had surrounded Ukrainian troops in the city of Krasnodar, and that Ukrainian personnel had begun to surrender. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Sergei Syrsky, stated that the Pokrovsk-Milnokhlad urban cluster was not surrounded or blockaded by Russian forces, and that Ukrainian forces were currently conducting comprehensive operations. The Ukrainian military stated that it was increasing the number of assault teams in Pokrovsk.On November 2nd, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that on November 1st, Russian forces thwarted a helicopter airborne operation by a Ukrainian Special Intelligence Directorate (GRU) special forces team near the strategically important city of Krasnoyarsk (also known as Pokrovsk) in the Donetsk region, killing all 11 paratroopers. Ukrainian sources stated that the Russian claim of killing Ukrainian special forces paratroopers is untrue, and the special forces team is currently operating in a designated area near Pokrovsk.

Oil Prices Stabilize as Shanghai's Lockdown is Eased and Russian Output is Reduced

Aria Thomas

Apr 13, 2022 09:27

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Shanghai said more than 7,000 residential units had been designated as lower-risk locations after a 14-day period with no new illnesses. Districts have begun stating which compounds are available for public inspection.


Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cautioned that it would be hard to replace the 7 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil and other liquids exports that would be lost as a result of sanctions or voluntary measures.


On Monday, Russian oil and gas condensate output dipped below 10 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest level since July 2020, two individuals familiar with the data said on Tuesday, as trading was impeded by sanctions and logistical restrictions.


According to sources, Russia's average oil production declined more than 6% to 10.32 million barrels per day (bpd) on April 1-11, from 11.01 million in March.


Although the European Union has not yet imposed an embargo on Russian oil, certain foreign ministers have indicated that the possibility is being considered.


"The oil market is susceptible to a huge shock if Russia's energy sector is sanctioned, and that risk remains," stated Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at OANDA.


OPEC dropped its prediction for Russian liquids output in 2022 by 530,000 barrels per day, but maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth, citing the effect of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, rising crude prices, and the recurrence of the epidemic in China.


Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), which previously purchased Russian Urals in bids, has withdrawn the grade from its next crude offer. On Monday, US Vice President Joe Biden informed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that purchasing more oil from Russia was not in India's best interests.


Members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) intend to release 240 million barrels over the next six months beginning in May in an attempt to stabilize the market.


While the release will alleviate acute shortages, economists cautioned that it would not address the underlying imbalance, and supplies will need to be replenished.


According to a preliminary Reuters poll, 8849|US crude oil inventories are estimated to have increased by 1.4 million barrels in the week ended April 8, after three consecutive weeks of declines.


The survey was taken ahead of Tuesday's American Petroleum Institute report, which is scheduled to release at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT).

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