EUR/USD 1.15683
1.338%
Gold 3357.10
2.040%
Oil 66.620
-3.233%
USD/JPY 147.431
-2.194%
GBP/USD 1.32607
0.406%
GBP/JPY 195.508
-1.753%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On August 2, Alexei Pushkov, a member of the Constitutional Committee of the Russian Federation Council, stated that the world cannot replace the amount of oil supplied by Russia, which accounts for about 10% of the global oil supply. Pushkov wrote on his social platform: "Despite Trumps warning of imposing high secondary sanctions tariffs, Indian refineries continue to purchase Russian oil. The Indian side explained that if the global market stops accepting 9.5 million barrels of oil per day from Russia, oil prices may rise to $135-140 per barrel. In fact, such a large amount of oil supply cannot be replaced at all, because Russia accounts for about 10% of the global oil supply."According to Argus on August 2, the eight core OPEC+ members will decide on August 3rd whether to fully exit their 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) crude oil production cuts in September or adopt a more cautious approach due to heightened supply and demand uncertainty. The group has already decided to implement approximately 80% of its planned 2.46 million bpd production increase (including a 300,000 bpd adjustment to the UAEs quota). Market expectations are for another 548,000 bpd increase in September, matching the accelerated increase in August and restoring production 12 months earlier than originally planned. One delegate confirmed his countrys support for completing the full production increase in September, a move long advocated by several major members, particularly given that some countries have been producing above their quotas. However, due to concerns about oil prices, at least one member favored a cautious approach, suggesting that the 548,000 bpd increase be split into smaller adjustments of 137,000 bpd per month from September to December.On August 2nd, Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler abruptly announced his resignation on Friday, giving US President Trump an opportunity to fill the Fed vacancy earlier than expected and potentially forcing him to finalize his next chairmanship months in advance. Derek Tang, an economist at the monetary policy analysis firm LH Meyer, said, "The ball is now in Trumps court. He has been pressuring the Fed to install his own candidate. Now his opportunity has arrived." While Powells term as chairman ends in May of next year, his term as a governor runs until 2028. If Powell doesnt voluntarily resign as a governor, Trump wont have another chance to fill the vacancy before 2028. In this scenario, Trump might be forced to fill Kuglers vacancy with a candidate he plans to promote as chairman. Tobin Marcus, head of US policy and political strategy at Wolfe Research, noted, "The key is that this is the only vacancy Trump can fill. If he wants to find the next Fed chair from outside, the nomination could be announced earlier."On August 2nd, Canadas retaliatory tariff increase against the United States earlier this year is leading the Trump administration to adopt a differentiated trade strategy with Mexico. Previously, Canada and Mexico enjoyed equal treatment—both were subject to a 25% base tariff and enjoyed extensive duty-free access under the USMCA. However, this situation took a sudden turn on Thursday: Trump announced a 90-day suspension of tariffs on Mexican goods, while simultaneously raising tariffs on Canadian products to 35%. Existing retaliatory measures have not only failed to curb the escalation of the conflict but have instead prompted even more severe retaliation from the United States. Economist and former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney has stated that retaliatory measures are limited in effectiveness. In fact, the Canadian government has diluted retaliatory tariffs through numerous exemptions, refrained from retaliating when the US raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, and even eliminated its digital services tax at the request of the US.On August 2, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) issued a statement today (August 2) emphasizing that "unless our national rights are fully restored, the most important of which is the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital and full sovereignty, we cannot give up armed resistance."

OPEC Warns EU Replacing Lost Russian Oil Supplies is Impossible

Haiden Holmes

Apr 12, 2022 09:21

O6.png


"We might possibly lose over 7 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil and other liquids exports as a consequence of existing and future sanctions or other voluntary steps," OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said in a draft of his speech obtained by Reuters.


"Given the present demand picture, it would be practically difficult to compensate for this scale of volume loss."


The European Union renewed its appeal during the conference for oil-producing nations to consider increasing supplies to help calm surging oil prices, according to a European Commission official.


EU delegates also emphasized OPEC's responsibilities to maintain stable oil markets, the source said.


OPEC has rejected requests from the US and the International Energy Agency to increase petroleum production in order to lower prices, which hit a 14-year high last month as a result of Washington and Brussels imposing sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine.


According to an OPEC document reviewed by Reuters, at the discussion with OPEC, the EU said that OPEC might increase output from its spare capacity.


Nonetheless, Barkindo said that the present extremely volatile market is the product of "non-fundamental variables" outside OPEC's control, indicating the organization would refrain from pumping further crude.


OPEC, which includes OPEC and non-OPEC producers including Russia, would increase supply by around 432,000 barrels per day in May as part of a gradual unwinding of output curbs implemented during the worst of the COVID-19 epidemic.


The EU-OPEC meeting on Monday afternoon was the latest in a series of discussions that began in 2005.


So far, penalties on Russian oil have been omitted by the EU. However, when the 27-nation group decided last week to impose Russian coal – the organization's first energy-related restriction – several top EU officials suggested oil may come next.


The European Commission is preparing ideas for an oil embargo against Russia, Ireland's, Lithuania's, and the Netherlands' foreign ministers announced Monday during an EU foreign ministers conference in Luxembourg, despite the fact that there was no consensus to restrict Russian petroleum.


Australia, Canada, and the United States, which are less dependent on Russian energy than Europe, have already prohibited the import of Russian oil.


EU member states are divided on whether to follow suit, given their increased reliance and the possibility for the move to drive up Europe's already high energy costs.


The EU plans to reduce its oil consumption by 30% by 2030, compared to 2015 levels, as part of its climate change objectives – yet an embargo would prompt a rush to replace Russian oil with other supplies in the near term.

Suggestion