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November 2nd - Investors and economists widely expect the Bank of England to pause interest rate cuts at its meeting next Thursday, ending its more than year-long pattern of quarterly rate cuts. The UK inflation rate is currently close to double the 2% target, and the autumn budget will be announced on November 26th, making policymakers more cautious. However, this pause may only be temporary. Recent weaker-than-expected inflation, employment, and output data have led to a significant increase in market bets on a December rate cut. While investors currently believe a rate cut this week is unlikely, the probability of a cut on December 18th has risen to nearly 60%. Bank of England Governor Bailey has warned that the timing of the next rate cut remains uncertain, especially given that this meeting comes just three weeks after Chancellor Reeves announced the key budget. Reeves previously raised employer payroll tax in April, which was criticized for driving up food prices. If the budget includes another large-scale tax increase targeting households, it could further damage the already weak UK economy.November 2nd - On November 1st, SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle announced that in October 2025, the retail sales of Roewe and MG vehicles exceeded 84,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 3%.Russian regional authorities say a Ukrainian drone strike damaged an oil tanker at the Russian Black Sea port of Tuapse.On November 2nd, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated on November 1st that Russian forces had surrounded Ukrainian troops in the city of Krasnodar, and that Ukrainian personnel had begun to surrender. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Sergei Syrsky, stated that the Pokrovsk-Milnokhlad urban cluster was not surrounded or blockaded by Russian forces, and that Ukrainian forces were currently conducting comprehensive operations. The Ukrainian military stated that it was increasing the number of assault teams in Pokrovsk.On November 2nd, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that on November 1st, Russian forces thwarted a helicopter airborne operation by a Ukrainian Special Intelligence Directorate (GRU) special forces team near the strategically important city of Krasnoyarsk (also known as Pokrovsk) in the Donetsk region, killing all 11 paratroopers. Ukrainian sources stated that the Russian claim of killing Ukrainian special forces paratroopers is untrue, and the special forces team is currently operating in a designated area near Pokrovsk.

Oil Prices Begin the Week Lower as Fears of a Chinese Covid Lockdown Fuel Demand Concerns

Charlie Brooks

Apr 12, 2022 09:18

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On the New York Mercantile Exchange, oil futures declined 4.04 percent to close at $94.29 a barrel, while Brent crude futures slid 4.2 percent to trade at $98.49 a barrel on the London's Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE).


China's travel ban has harmed travel activities in the world's second biggest economy, placing a squeeze on jet fuel and crude oil consumption. "Air traffic has been reduced to 10% of its normal level not just in Shanghai, but also in other parts of the nation," Commerzbank stated in a note.


According to Commerzbank, the effect of decreased transport demand is estimated to be between 1.2 million and 1.3 million barrels per day, with jet fuel consumption accounting for around half of this amount.


However, there looks to be some relief on the horizon, as Shanghai officials said Monday that they will begin relaxing lockdowns in certain neighborhoods. The announcement comes after China's financial capital recorded a record number of new Covid cases on Sunday, exceeding 25,000.


Demand is being slashed at a time when extra production is scheduled to come online, putting more downward pressure on oil prices. The International Energy Agency's member states agreed last week to release 60 million barrels over the next six months, assuaging concerns about a supply crisis.