Natural Gas Price Prediction: Markets Gap Upward to Start the Week

To begin the trading week, the natural gas markets gapped upward, then drew back to close the gap before rising once again. In the end, this market continues to exhibit a lot of erratic behavior, and quite honestly, we had been so oversold that this move was necessary. In truth, there may yet be some progress to be made, but in the end, the natural gas markets will continue to take a beating. This is due to the fact that the United States won't be providing LNG for the European Union, and the EU has now realized that it needs to find alternative energy sources. (To get an idea, look at the coal market.)

I believe we will move lower to test the 200 Day EMA if we are able to close Monday's session below the bottom of the candlestick. This does not necessary imply that you leap right in, but I still believe that this will resemble a case where you "fade the rallies." As a result, I believe that this market's early signals of weariness will continue to provide possibilities for shorting. Because of this, I do believe that we will go much lower, but given how far we have dropped in such a short period of time, a slight rebound makes a lot of sense.

The $5.34 is currently the "floor in the market," and I completely expect that we will ultimately revisit that range. The market would collapse if we can break down below that level, but I believe we need to do more before trying that.