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On August 11th, analyst James Glynn stated that the Reserve Bank of Australias revised economic forecasts indicate that the bank is approaching a comfortable level for its current policy. The unemployment rate path has been revised upwards; the RBA now expects the unemployment rate to reach 4.5% by December, higher than the previous forecast of 4.3%. The biggest change is in inflation. Overall CPI is now projected at 3.6% by December, lower than the previous forecast of 4.0%. The cut-off mean inflation rate has been revised downwards, projected at 3.3% by December, lower than the previous forecast of 3.5%, and is expected to reach 2.4% by June 2028. All these indicators suggest that the RBA is nearing the end of its tightening cycle.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock: The committee is seriously considering when it would be appropriate to raise interest rates.Maersk: Logistics operations in parts of Colombia are currently facing disruption due to the earthquake affecting multiple regions.August 11th - InvestingLive, a US financial website, reported that the Reserve Bank of Australias (RBA) interest rate decision was in line with expectations. The RBA did not express excessive concern about recent inflation trends, but its forward guidance did see some minor adjustments. While not explicitly pointing to further tightening measures, policymakers wanted the market to know that inflation risks are now skewed to the upside, no longer a two-sided risk scenario. Therefore, the wording of this statement was clearer regarding its policy priorities. The RBA also included a timeline, indicating that inflation is unlikely to fall back to its target level by the end of next year. This leaves some room for further rate hikes in the near future if necessary. The unanimous decision itself did not leave much room for traders to maneuver. Essentially, the RBA reiterated that they acknowledge the possibility of raising the cash rate again if necessary, but are not in a hurry to do so. Before the decision was announced, traders priced in a 97% probability of no change at this meeting. Therefore, this is more or less in line with market expectations.On August 11, Iranian President Manuel Pezechzian stated that his recent meeting with Irans Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei lasted seven to eight hours, during which various topics were discussed in depth. Pezechzian also stated that the most important task at present is to prevent internal division, and that all of the enemys plans are aimed at creating division within Iran. Earlier that day, Pezechzian had also said that Mojtaba was in "very good health."

Silver is under pressure as the dollar rises to new highs, according to silver price predictions

Daniel Rogers

Jul 12, 2022 14:38

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The U.S. dollar is testing record highs versus a wide basket of currencies while silver is going lower at the start of the week. The main negative trigger for precious metals in recent weeks has been the strengthening dollar. At the beginning of July, the U.S. Dollar Index swiftly passed through the 105 level and tested the 108 level.

 

Treasury rates have decreased from their mid-June highs, but traders' attention has remained on the strong dollar, so this movement was insufficient to boost precious metals.

 

While the U.S. dollar is technically overbought, silver is now trading in oversold territory. While the strong dollar is one issue that puts pressure on the silver markets, it is unclear if silver will be able to recover from present levels.

 

Recession worries have also played a role in the recent swing that sent silver from the $22 level to the $19 level. Silver is sensitive to industrial demand. The U.S. economy is still doing rather well, but there is no doubt that the European economy is about to enter a recession.

 

Markets are concerned that the Fed's rapid rate increases may cause the US economy to contract. The Fed does have an opportunity to plan a "soft landing," though. If the incoming economic data shows that the American economy is slowing, silver will swiftly pick up further bearish momentum and go below the $19 mark.

 

The U.S. Inflation Rate data, which will be announced on Wednesday, should be closely watched by silver dealers. Analysts anticipate that prices rose 8.8% year over year in June.

 

If the news comes in worse than anticipated, silver will take two hits. The price of precious metals will decline as a result of the strengthening of the US dollar. Bond markets will start pricing in more interest rate increases at the same time, which will put extra pressure on precious metals. Silver should have a fair possibility of rising from present levels if the report performs better than expected. Trading may remain choppy until Wednesday since the inflation report may have a big influence on the markets.


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