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In anticipation of the US PMIs and NFP, the gold price is expected to struggle at $1,760 (XAU/USD)

Daniel Rogers

Aug 01, 2022 11:48

 截屏2022-07-29 下午5.19.51_1024x576.png

 

Even after recovering from the intraday low and falling for the first time in four days, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is still under pressure as buyers pause at the one-month top. Despite this, the price of the yellow metal recently increased to $1,763 after hitting a new intraday low of $1,760 on Monday during the Asian session.

 

The recent decline in the quotation may have been brought on by the market's apprehensive mood ahead of the crucial US jobs data for July as well as by the latest Sino-American spat. The hawkish Fedspeak and Friday's positive prices of the Fed's favored inflation indicator also have an impact on the price of XAU/USD.

 

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi starts her trip to Asia, although her stop in Taiwan isn't listed on the itinerary Beijing's warnings may be to blame for this. The Financial Times said that six people who were acquainted with the Chinese warnings said they were much more severe than the threats Beijing has previously made when it disagreed with US actions or policy on Taiwan (FT).

 

Nevertheless, the favored inflation indicator of the Fed, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, increased to 4.8 percent YoY for June from 4.7 percent in May. Niel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, then told the New York Times (NYT) that the Fed is still far from stopping rate increases. "I think raising rates by half a point at upcoming Fed meetings looks feasible," the policymaker continued.

 

However, it should be noted that the recent decline in US Treasury rates and better stock markets seem to have impacted on the US dollar, favoring the price of gold. Additionally, the "technical recession" of the US and remarks by US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell emphasising data dependence and neutral rates supported the rebound of gold during the past two weeks.

 

The US Treasury rates maintain a recent dip around 2.66 percent, up two basis points, while the S&P 500 Futures print just slight losses among these manoeuvres (bps).

 

Moving on, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July, which is predicted to be 52 compared to 53 before, might influence immediate XAU/USD swings before the US ISM Services PMI for the same month. The Fedspeak and the news on China will also be significant. However, with demands for neutral rates and an economic slowdown, Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be the focus of much attention.


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