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September 14th - According to CMEs "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 13.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 86.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by October is 6.9%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 50.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 42.9%.On September 14th, Argentine Defense Minister Carlos Alberto Presti stated on the 13th that the US government has not taken sides in the sovereignty dispute over the Falkland Islands (Malvinas Islands). In a media interview on the 13th, Presti said that the US government supports a peaceful resolution to the Falklands sovereignty dispute and has not favored Argentina or the UK.On September 14th, according to the Financial Times, British Prime Minister Burnham will pledge to business leaders on Monday that the government will be a "partner in economic growth" and acknowledges the need for a cultural shift in the UK to encourage entrepreneurship. He will hold a roundtable discussion with entrepreneurs from sectors such as artificial intelligence, fintech, healthtech, manufacturing, and quantum computing, followed by a reception hosted by executives from several large companies at Downing Street. Downing Street stated that the event will focus on how the government can streamline the processes of starting, developing, and investing, while ensuring that any resulting economic benefits reach local communities. On Sunday, Burnham said that the UK has the talent, universities, and visionary communities needed for success, but to unlock its full potential, "We need a cultural shift in how businesses operate in the UK."Conflict Update: 1. Yemeni government forces claim Houthi offensive has resulted in thousands of casualties on both sides. 2. An Iranian cargo ship was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in one death and four injuries. 3. Several explosions were heard in the Sirik region of Hormozgan province, Iran; the source of the explosions is unclear. 4. Yemeni government armed forces: have recaptured positions in western Taiz previously infiltrated by Houthi forces. Strait of Hormuz: 1. British Maritime Authority: A ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. 2. US Energy Secretary: Dont expect a breakthrough in the Strait of Hormuz situation anytime soon. 3. A meeting between Iran and Gulf states scheduled for Monday regarding navigation in the strait has been postponed. 4. US Central Command: As of September 13, US forces had diverted 101 merchant ships. Other Updates: 1. Houthi forces claim navigation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is largely normal. 2. Trump hinted at not ruling out remaining in Iran and taking its crude oil, drawing parallels with Venezuela. 3. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Iranian Foreign Minister meets with Cuban Foreign Minister. 4. Iran says the US and Europe urged the IAEA to pressure Iran. 5. Sources: Saudi pipeline disruption could cause a 4% loss in global oil supply. 6. Iranian President: Iran will never surrender; Iran and Saudi Arabia are not at war. 7. Meeting between UAE and Iranian leaders intensifies efforts to resolve the Hormuz deadlock. 8. Iranian President: Talks with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi were good; they agreed to put the past behind them. 9. UAE Foreign Minister confirms to Iraqi Foreign Minister that the UAE supports all measures that contribute to strengthening Iraqs security and stability. According to an Axios global affairs reporter, a senior official from a Gulf state said that Saudi Arabia has submitted revisions to the Oman-Iran proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz, as Saudi Arabia is concerned that the proposed wording could effectively establish a new status quo in the strait, which is unacceptable to Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries.

In anticipation of UK Retail Sales, the British Pound falls to a new monthly low near 1.1900

Daniel Rogers

Aug 19, 2022 12:01

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On Friday's Asian session, the pound to dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) accepted offers to reaffirm its monthly bottom at 1.1905, falling for a third consecutive day on concerns about the UK economy, aggressive Fedspeak, and upbeat US data.

 

Bloomberg reports that Indonesian President Joko Widodo has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Group of 20 Summit in Bali later this year. Recent market movement in favor of the US dollar may have this explanation. This was the first time the leader of the world's fourth-most populous nation had announced that both of them will be attending the November conference, according to the news.

 

August's record low for the GfK Consumer Sentiment Index in the United Kingdom was even lower than July's record low of -41. Following the release of the data, Reuters said, "British consumers are experiencing a'sense of aggravation' about the growing cost of living, according to the country's longest-running research of household finances.

 

British employment and inflation figures were reported earlier in the week, but this did not help the GBP/USD as the strong US economy and aggressive Fed talk encouraged pair bears.

 

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 250K from 265K market consensus and 254K correction, whilst the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for August rose to 6.2 from -5 expected and -12.3 before.

 

The Fed will keep raising interest rates to "right-size" the economy, according to Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The policymaker indicated that a move of 50 basis points or 75 basis points would be acceptable for the September rate decision. But Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve reportedly does not think a recession is happening in the country at the moment. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and self-proclaimed "lifelong hawk" James Bullard is considering a further rate hike of 75 basis points in September. According to Reuters, investors expect a hike to a range of 3.50–3.75 percent by March of next year, based on trade in futures contracts related to the Fed's policy rate. As a result, the Federal Reserve target rate is between 2.25 and 2.50 percent as of right now.

 

Finally, Wall Street ended with a lackluster performance, putting pressure on S&P 500 Futures, while US 10-year Treasury rates rebounded from their previous day's drop from the monthly high to 2.891% as of press time.

 

For new guidance, GBP/USD traders will focus on August UK Retail Sales, which are predicted to be -3.3% YoY compared to -5.8% in July.