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September 19th - A weekly survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that investor sentiment has further deteriorated, falling to its lowest level since 2025, as oil prices remain high and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time since 2023. The latest survey released by the AAII on Friday shows that 53.3% of surveyed investors are bearish, more than half. Only 28.8% of investors are bullish, the lowest level in a year. Charles Rothbrook, vice president of the AAII, stated in a statement that overall, the difference between the number of bulls and bears in the market has fallen to -24.5%, a level that is "unusually low" and has been below the historical average of 6.5% for the ninth consecutive week. This is also the lowest level of this indicator since May 2025. The latest survey also shows that more than half of the respondents hold higher-than-normal cash allocations, indicating that investors are cautious. Among them, 19.1% of respondents said their cash allocations were "significantly higher than normal."September 19th - According to CBS, shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait continues to be disrupted due to the Houthi rebels recent expansion of influence along the Red Sea coast, resulting in a significant decline in Saudi export shipments. Data from shipping company Kpler shows that in the past seven days, only five ships carrying Saudi products have passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to leave the Red Sea, far below one-third of the average seven-day period this year. The previous weeks record was 11 ships in the week of July 24th. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the most important channels for Saudi oil exports. The Houthi rebels currently state that navigation in the area is not threatened except for Saudi vessels, but the market is concerned that any attacks could reduce shipping companies willingness to use the route. Data shows that the volume of commodity tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has been below normal levels in the past seven days, but has not been completely disrupted.According to Punchbowl, the latest estimates submitted by U.S. Central Command to the Congressional Defense Committee show that, as of September 3, the cost of U.S. military operations against Iran has reached $43.6 billion.According to CBS: Data shows that Saudi Arabia’s exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remain sluggish, with weekly traffic volume since early August less than a third of the seven-day average this year.Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf: The era of US F-35 and F-15 fighter jets being tracked and attacked has begun. "What used to be a terrible nightmare has now become a reality."

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD recovers from $1,860 support amid Fed and China worries

Alina Haynes

Feb 06, 2023 15:17

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Gold price (XAU/USD) consolidates recent losses as it posts modest gains near $1,875 in early Monday trading, marking the first positive day in three sessions near the one-month low. In doing so, the precious metal applauds the U.S. dollar's struggle to maintain its strength and draws cues from US-China disputes in advance of this week's major events.

 

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains stagnant at 103.00, despite a two-day recovery from the lowest levels since April 2022. In doing so, the dollar's measure against the six main currencies fails to justify the robust US employment report and geopolitical concerns regarding China.

 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinked canceled his previously scheduled trip to Beijing in response to the weekend news reports claiming that an American military fighter jet shot down a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon off the coast of South Carolina. President of China Xi Jinping called this a "obvious overreaction" in response to the incident.

 

The same joins Friday's robust US employment report and ISM Services PMI data to test the XAU/USD bulls ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech, scheduled for release on Tuesday.

 

S&P 500 Futures extend the previous day's fall from the greatest levels since August as of press time, trading 0.30% lower intraday near 4,140. In the same vein, US 10-year Treasury note rates have increased for three straight days, reaching 3.56 percent as of press time, marking the largest weekly increase since late September 2022.

 

It is worth mentioning that a lack of key data appears to have spurred the XAU/USD bounce from the short-term support, but Gold purchasers should stay cautious in light of the Fed's recent hawkishness and the US-China friction. The US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index for February and the University of Michigan's 5-year Consumer Inflation Predictions will also be crucial to monitor on Friday.


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