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Royal Bank of Canada: Lowered its price target for Qualcomm (QCOM.O) to $150 from $180.1. Goldman Sachs: Expects interest rates to remain unchanged. In the current "Goldilocks" economic environment of trending growth, low unemployment, and inflation near target, maintaining a neutral monetary policy is undoubtedly a reasonable choice. 2. ING: Expects interest rates to remain unchanged. A stronger euro may restart discussions about the possibility of a rate cut. If the euro strengthens further, the possibility of a rate cut in March will increase. Low inflation adds leverage to dovish discussions. 3. ABN AMRO: Expects interest rates to remain unchanged. The committee tends to ignore the situation where the inflation rate is below the target level. Lagarde is expected to reiterate that no specific exchange rate target is set, and that the committee is prepared to act at any time if the impact of exchange rates becomes significant. 4. Scotiabank: Expects interest rates to remain unchanged, maintaining a neutral communication stance. Recent economic data, including the services PMI and CPI, have met expectations and have not given ECB policymakers much incentive to take action. 5. Nordea: Expects interest rates to remain unchanged, possibly until the second half of 2027, as overall price pressures remain anchored within the target range, the economy is resilient, and recent foreign exchange fluctuations are unlikely to cause excessive concern. 6. Dutch Cooperation: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged, with two rate hikes in March and June 2027. Although euro appreciation may trigger verbal intervention, the euro still has considerable room for appreciation before triggering a rate cut. 7. Societe Generale: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged, as core inflation remains above 2% and economic growth is strong. If the recent rise in oil prices continues, offsetting the deflationary effects of a stronger euro, it will reduce the urgency to adjust policy. 8. UniCredit: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged until 2027, as the economy has shown resilience. A stronger euro is unlikely to pose a significant threat to its baseline scenario. Maintaining a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting decision-making approach is crucial for flexible action. 9. Capital Economics: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged and not change policy guidance. Inflation is likely to fall below target in the second half of the year, prompting a rate cut before the end of the year. Direct intervention is unlikely unless the euro appreciates more rapidly and significantly. 10. Amundi: Expects to keep policy unchanged. The risk of lower-than-expected inflation at the beginning of the year reinforces the view that the ECB may cut interest rates again to 1.75% later this year. 11. 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Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD declines near $1,750 as risk aversion anticipates NFP data release

Alina Haynes

Aug 02, 2022 15:03

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During Tuesday's opening European session, the gold price (XAU/USD) deepens its retreat from a nearly three-month-old resistance line, falling below $1,773. In spite of this, the precious metal exhibits a five-day rise around the greatest levels since July 5.

 

The metal's early-day rally may have been influenced by a broad dollar decline and Treasury rates. The XAU/USD exchange rate afterwards looked to have been influenced by China-related news and rising worries of an economic downturn.

 

Nonetheless, the visit of US House Secretary Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan and the probable difficulties for Chinese chipmakers as a result of the U.S. consideration of banning supplies of American chipmaking equipment further weigh on market mood. Similarly, a Chinese media story may indicate that the dragon country is prepared for a military exercise in Bohai, South China Sea.

 

In addition, Bloomberg's report that Beijing's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has no fixed limits tends to dampen the market's risk appetite. People acquainted with the situation were quoted in the press as saying, "China's top leaders instructed government officials last week that this year's economic growth objective of "about 5.5 percent" should serve as guideline rather than a mandatory aim."

 

It should be emphasized that China is one of the world's largest users of gold, and that bad news stories about the country might impact on gold prices.

 

Elsewhere, the recently poor US PMIs mirrored last week's US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter to illustrate economic anxiety. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's veiled warnings that the hawks are losing steam might also dampen sentiment.

 

As a reflection of market mood, equities in the Asia-Pacific region and US stock futures see modest losses. However, the US 10-year bond yield decreases 5.5 basis points (bps) to 2.55 percent at the latest, threatening the gold bears via the weakening US dollar. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reestablished the monthly minimum before rebounding from 105.00.

 

The news concerning China and the recession, as well as the remarks of Chicago Fed President Charles L. Evans and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, will be crucial for intraday gold dealers in the future.