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On January 30th, Sonu Varghese, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, stated that if Kevin Warsh is indeed nominated as the Federal Reserve Chair, we may ultimately end up with a Fed that is somewhat hawkish. Warsh has historically been a hawk, although he has recently been talking about interest rate cuts. If he enters the Fed advocating for significant rate cuts, he may not have much credibility in convincing others that further rate cuts are needed. We might even end up with a severely divided committee that doesnt cut rates at all. In the short term, a potentially hawkish Fed could increase market volatility.On January 30th, according to futures market news: 1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 1,861,277 lots, an increase of 740,717 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 2,072,923 lots, an increase of 13,889 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 380,646 lots, an increase of 156,990 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 259,939 lots, a decrease of 6,052 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 610,932 lots, a decrease of 80,707 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,639,013 lots, an increase of 17,069 lots from the previous trading day.January 30th - In December 2025, domestic mobile phone shipments reached 24.473 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 29.1%. Among them, 5G mobile phones accounted for 22.132 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 27.3%, representing 90.4% of total mobile phone shipments during the same period. From January to December 2025, domestic mobile phone shipments totaled 307 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%. Among them, 5G mobile phones accounted for 266 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, representing 86.9% of total mobile phone shipments during the same period.Frances GDP growth rate is projected to be 0.9% in 2025.Frances preliminary fourth-quarter GDP annualized rate was 1.1%, below the expected 1.20% and the previous value of 0.90%.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD declines near $1,750 as risk aversion anticipates NFP data release

Alina Haynes

Aug 02, 2022 15:03

 截屏2022-08-02 下午2.58.26.png

 

During Tuesday's opening European session, the gold price (XAU/USD) deepens its retreat from a nearly three-month-old resistance line, falling below $1,773. In spite of this, the precious metal exhibits a five-day rise around the greatest levels since July 5.

 

The metal's early-day rally may have been influenced by a broad dollar decline and Treasury rates. The XAU/USD exchange rate afterwards looked to have been influenced by China-related news and rising worries of an economic downturn.

 

Nonetheless, the visit of US House Secretary Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan and the probable difficulties for Chinese chipmakers as a result of the U.S. consideration of banning supplies of American chipmaking equipment further weigh on market mood. Similarly, a Chinese media story may indicate that the dragon country is prepared for a military exercise in Bohai, South China Sea.

 

In addition, Bloomberg's report that Beijing's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has no fixed limits tends to dampen the market's risk appetite. People acquainted with the situation were quoted in the press as saying, "China's top leaders instructed government officials last week that this year's economic growth objective of "about 5.5 percent" should serve as guideline rather than a mandatory aim."

 

It should be emphasized that China is one of the world's largest users of gold, and that bad news stories about the country might impact on gold prices.

 

Elsewhere, the recently poor US PMIs mirrored last week's US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter to illustrate economic anxiety. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's veiled warnings that the hawks are losing steam might also dampen sentiment.

 

As a reflection of market mood, equities in the Asia-Pacific region and US stock futures see modest losses. However, the US 10-year bond yield decreases 5.5 basis points (bps) to 2.55 percent at the latest, threatening the gold bears via the weakening US dollar. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reestablished the monthly minimum before rebounding from 105.00.

 

The news concerning China and the recession, as well as the remarks of Chicago Fed President Charles L. Evans and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, will be crucial for intraday gold dealers in the future.


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