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September 19th - A weekly survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that investor sentiment has further deteriorated, falling to its lowest level since 2025, as oil prices remain high and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time since 2023. The latest survey released by the AAII on Friday shows that 53.3% of surveyed investors are bearish, more than half. Only 28.8% of investors are bullish, the lowest level in a year. Charles Rothbrook, vice president of the AAII, stated in a statement that overall, the difference between the number of bulls and bears in the market has fallen to -24.5%, a level that is "unusually low" and has been below the historical average of 6.5% for the ninth consecutive week. This is also the lowest level of this indicator since May 2025. The latest survey also shows that more than half of the respondents hold higher-than-normal cash allocations, indicating that investors are cautious. Among them, 19.1% of respondents said their cash allocations were "significantly higher than normal."September 19th - According to CBS, shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait continues to be disrupted due to the Houthi rebels recent expansion of influence along the Red Sea coast, resulting in a significant decline in Saudi export shipments. Data from shipping company Kpler shows that in the past seven days, only five ships carrying Saudi products have passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to leave the Red Sea, far below one-third of the average seven-day period this year. The previous weeks record was 11 ships in the week of July 24th. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the most important channels for Saudi oil exports. The Houthi rebels currently state that navigation in the area is not threatened except for Saudi vessels, but the market is concerned that any attacks could reduce shipping companies willingness to use the route. Data shows that the volume of commodity tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has been below normal levels in the past seven days, but has not been completely disrupted.According to Punchbowl, the latest estimates submitted by U.S. Central Command to the Congressional Defense Committee show that, as of September 3, the cost of U.S. military operations against Iran has reached $43.6 billion.According to CBS: Data shows that Saudi Arabia’s exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remain sluggish, with weekly traffic volume since early August less than a third of the seven-day average this year.Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf: The era of US F-35 and F-15 fighter jets being tracked and attacked has begun. "What used to be a terrible nightmare has now become a reality."

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD bulls want confirmation from $1,905

Daniel Rogers

Feb 06, 2023 15:36

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Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers from monthly low, grinding higher at intraday highs near $1,878 as the European session begins on Monday. In doing so, the yellow metal reverses a two-day slump in the face of a sluggish US Dollar, negative sentiment, and aggressive Fed sentiment.

 

The positive US jobs report and ISM Services PMI on Friday rekindled speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) had leeway to raise interest rates. However, the US shooting of a Chinese balloon and the cancellation of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Beijing weigh on the market's risk profile. In the same vein, China warned not to exacerbate the delicate situation and described the incident as a "obvious overreaction."

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) stays passive despite a comeback in US Treasury bond yields and slight losses in stock futures. The cause may be the DXY bull's hesitation ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Tuesday.