Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD recovers from $1,860 support amid Fed and China worries

Gold price (XAU/USD) consolidates recent losses as it posts modest gains near $1,875 in early Monday trading, marking the first positive day in three sessions near the one-month low. In doing so, the precious metal applauds the U.S. dollar's struggle to maintain its strength and draws cues from US-China disputes in advance of this week's major events.

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains stagnant at 103.00, despite a two-day recovery from the lowest levels since April 2022. In doing so, the dollar's measure against the six main currencies fails to justify the robust US employment report and geopolitical concerns regarding China.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinked canceled his previously scheduled trip to Beijing in response to the weekend news reports claiming that an American military fighter jet shot down a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon off the coast of South Carolina. President of China Xi Jinping called this a "obvious overreaction" in response to the incident.

The same joins Friday's robust US employment report and ISM Services PMI data to test the XAU/USD bulls ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech, scheduled for release on Tuesday.

S&P 500 Futures extend the previous day's fall from the greatest levels since August as of press time, trading 0.30% lower intraday near 4,140. In the same vein, US 10-year Treasury note rates have increased for three straight days, reaching 3.56 percent as of press time, marking the largest weekly increase since late September 2022.

It is worth mentioning that a lack of key data appears to have spurred the XAU/USD bounce from the short-term support, but Gold purchasers should stay cautious in light of the Fed's recent hawkishness and the US-China friction. The US UoM Consumer Sentiment Index for February and the University of Michigan's 5-year Consumer Inflation Predictions will also be crucial to monitor on Friday.