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September 14th - According to CMEs "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 13.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 86.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by October is 6.9%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 50.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 42.9%.On September 14th, Argentine Defense Minister Carlos Alberto Presti stated on the 13th that the US government has not taken sides in the sovereignty dispute over the Falkland Islands (Malvinas Islands). In a media interview on the 13th, Presti said that the US government supports a peaceful resolution to the Falklands sovereignty dispute and has not favored Argentina or the UK.On September 14th, according to the Financial Times, British Prime Minister Burnham will pledge to business leaders on Monday that the government will be a "partner in economic growth" and acknowledges the need for a cultural shift in the UK to encourage entrepreneurship. He will hold a roundtable discussion with entrepreneurs from sectors such as artificial intelligence, fintech, healthtech, manufacturing, and quantum computing, followed by a reception hosted by executives from several large companies at Downing Street. Downing Street stated that the event will focus on how the government can streamline the processes of starting, developing, and investing, while ensuring that any resulting economic benefits reach local communities. On Sunday, Burnham said that the UK has the talent, universities, and visionary communities needed for success, but to unlock its full potential, "We need a cultural shift in how businesses operate in the UK."Conflict Update: 1. Yemeni government forces claim Houthi offensive has resulted in thousands of casualties on both sides. 2. An Iranian cargo ship was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in one death and four injuries. 3. Several explosions were heard in the Sirik region of Hormozgan province, Iran; the source of the explosions is unclear. 4. Yemeni government armed forces: have recaptured positions in western Taiz previously infiltrated by Houthi forces. Strait of Hormuz: 1. British Maritime Authority: A ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. 2. US Energy Secretary: Dont expect a breakthrough in the Strait of Hormuz situation anytime soon. 3. A meeting between Iran and Gulf states scheduled for Monday regarding navigation in the strait has been postponed. 4. US Central Command: As of September 13, US forces had diverted 101 merchant ships. Other Updates: 1. Houthi forces claim navigation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is largely normal. 2. Trump hinted at not ruling out remaining in Iran and taking its crude oil, drawing parallels with Venezuela. 3. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Iranian Foreign Minister meets with Cuban Foreign Minister. 4. Iran says the US and Europe urged the IAEA to pressure Iran. 5. Sources: Saudi pipeline disruption could cause a 4% loss in global oil supply. 6. Iranian President: Iran will never surrender; Iran and Saudi Arabia are not at war. 7. Meeting between UAE and Iranian leaders intensifies efforts to resolve the Hormuz deadlock. 8. Iranian President: Talks with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi were good; they agreed to put the past behind them. 9. UAE Foreign Minister confirms to Iraqi Foreign Minister that the UAE supports all measures that contribute to strengthening Iraqs security and stability. According to an Axios global affairs reporter, a senior official from a Gulf state said that Saudi Arabia has submitted revisions to the Oman-Iran proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz, as Saudi Arabia is concerned that the proposed wording could effectively establish a new status quo in the strait, which is unacceptable to Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries.

Early Support for ETH and BTC, with US Economic Indicators in Focus

Alina Haynes

Nov 03, 2022 19:39

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Wednesday saw Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) join the larger market in the red. The NASDAQ Composite Index, Bitcoin, and Ethereum all fell in response to Fed Chair Powell's news conference. Nevertheless, the technical indications continue to be optimistic, indicating upward price trends. On Wednesday, Ethereum (ETH) fell 3.80%. Reversing Tuesday's gain of 0.32%, ETH closed the day at $1,518.

 

After a turbulent morning session, ETH recovered to a high of $1,622 by late afternoon. ETH surpassed the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,606 prior to falling to a late low of $1,506. ETH ended the day below $1,520 after breaking through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,556 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,535.

 

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On Wednesday, the price of bitcoin (BTC) plummeted by 1.63 percent. BTC ended Tuesday at $20,165, a decrease of 0.04% from its opening price.

 

BTC rose to a high of $20,817 in response to the FOMC Statement, following a range-bound morning. BTC surpassed the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,686 before falling to an intraday low of $20,086. BTC went below the First and Second Major Support Levels (S1 and S2) at $20,327 and $20,154, respectively.

 

In accordance with forecasts, the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday. The FOMC Statement hinted at a likely policy move in December, lending credence to December Fed pivot wagers. The Rate Statement pushed BTC and ETH to their daily peaks.

 

However, Fed Chair Powell dashed prospects for a reversal, citing excessive inflation and the need to continue forward. Powell remarked that the "final level of interest rates will be higher than anticipated."

 

As a result, the NASDAQ Composite Index fell 3.36 percent, sending BTC and ETH into the negative.

 

Today, attention will be on US factory orders, jobless claims, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. We anticipate the PMI and its subcomponents to have the most effect.

 

Due to the sensitivity of BTC and ETH to US economic statistics and the FED, the correlation with the NASDAQ Composite Index remains intact. The NASDAQ 100 Mini was up 35 points this morning.