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February 6th - Today (February 6th), the Hainan Provincial Information Office held a press conference to introduce the "zero tariff" policy for imported goods for consumption by residents within the Hainan Free Trade Port and to answer reporters questions. The press conference announced that the first batch of five duty-free shops for daily consumer goods will be opened in the three prefecture-level cities of Haikou, Sanya, and Danzhou, with each shop scheduled to open on February 11th, the Southern Lunar New Years Eve.February 6th - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is near its steepest level in over four years due to interest rate cuts and concerns about persistent inflation and fiscal deficits. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields widened to as high as 73.7 basis points on Thursday, just slightly below the peak of 73.8 basis points reached in April, the highest level since January 2022. The spread widened on Thursday as signs of weakness in the U.S. job market prompted traders to increase their bets on further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve this year. According to overnight index swaps, the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate before June (just one month after the end of its term) and will implement two to three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year. Investors are speculating that President Trumps nominee for Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, despite his hawkish reputation, will still favor lower interest rates. Martin Whetton, head of financial markets strategy at Westpac, said: “While the curve has shifted fairly horizontally, weak jobs data has created more downside risk for front-end yields. However, the curve has become steeper as comments from the Treasury’s Borrowing Advisory Committee earlier this week suggested that supply increases could come earlier than expected in November.”The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.2 earthquake occurred in Gerze County, Ngari Prefecture, Tibet Autonomous Region at 09:49 on February 6, with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.February 6th - According to an official at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, major polluting companies in Japan are purchasing carbon credits on the exchanges voluntary market ahead of the launch of a mandatory carbon trading program. Natsuko Gunji, general manager of the exchanges carbon trading office, stated, "We are seeing huge market demand. Part of this demand is driven by companies anticipation of the GX-ETS launch," but some companies are also eager to cancel their credits this fiscal year to fulfill their climate commitments. Carbon credits for renewable energy power generation in Japan reached a high of 6,600 yen per tonne (approximately US$42.12) in February and April last year, and have since fallen by nearly a quarter. This price remains above the 4,300 yen allowance price ceiling proposed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry for the GX-ETS market in December.Commodity-themed LOFs on the exchange opened lower, with crude oil LOFs E Fund and Guotai Commodity LOF both falling by more than 2%, and resource LOFs, Huabao Oil & Gas LOF, Harvest Crude Oil LOF, and Guotou Resource LOF all falling by more than 1%.

Early Support for ETH and BTC, with US Economic Indicators in Focus

Alina Haynes

Nov 03, 2022 19:39

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Wednesday saw Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) join the larger market in the red. The NASDAQ Composite Index, Bitcoin, and Ethereum all fell in response to Fed Chair Powell's news conference. Nevertheless, the technical indications continue to be optimistic, indicating upward price trends. On Wednesday, Ethereum (ETH) fell 3.80%. Reversing Tuesday's gain of 0.32%, ETH closed the day at $1,518.

 

After a turbulent morning session, ETH recovered to a high of $1,622 by late afternoon. ETH surpassed the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,606 prior to falling to a late low of $1,506. ETH ended the day below $1,520 after breaking through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,556 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,535.

 

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On Wednesday, the price of bitcoin (BTC) plummeted by 1.63 percent. BTC ended Tuesday at $20,165, a decrease of 0.04% from its opening price.

 

BTC rose to a high of $20,817 in response to the FOMC Statement, following a range-bound morning. BTC surpassed the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,686 before falling to an intraday low of $20,086. BTC went below the First and Second Major Support Levels (S1 and S2) at $20,327 and $20,154, respectively.

 

In accordance with forecasts, the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday. The FOMC Statement hinted at a likely policy move in December, lending credence to December Fed pivot wagers. The Rate Statement pushed BTC and ETH to their daily peaks.

 

However, Fed Chair Powell dashed prospects for a reversal, citing excessive inflation and the need to continue forward. Powell remarked that the "final level of interest rates will be higher than anticipated."

 

As a result, the NASDAQ Composite Index fell 3.36 percent, sending BTC and ETH into the negative.

 

Today, attention will be on US factory orders, jobless claims, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. We anticipate the PMI and its subcomponents to have the most effect.

 

Due to the sensitivity of BTC and ETH to US economic statistics and the FED, the correlation with the NASDAQ Composite Index remains intact. The NASDAQ 100 Mini was up 35 points this morning.