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EUR/USD Is Likely to Fall Below 1.0850 Due to Ukraine Crisis and Hawkish ECB Minutes

Drake Hampton

Apr 08, 2022 10:11

  • EUR/USD is aiming for further loss as the DXY strengthens amid renewed talk of restoring neutral rates.

  • The common currency has been unable to benefit from hawkish ECB minutes and solid retail sales.

  • Members of the United Nations Human Rights Council voted in favor of Russia losing its associate status.


The EUR/USD pair is on a six-day losing run and is expected to extend losses on Friday as investors anticipate an escalation in the Ukraine issue following Russia's withdrawal from the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Council. The members of the United Nations Human Rights Council agreed to expel Russia after Russian separatists committed war crimes in Bucha, Ukraine. As world nations isolate Russia from key communities, Russian President Vladimir Putin may de-escalate progress negotiations with Ukraine, resulting in an escalation of the Ukraine issue.


Meanwhile, the hawkish minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) March monetary policy meeting have done little to bolster the common currency. The majority of ECB policymakers have backed swift action via monetary policy to rein in spiraling inflation. Apart from that, the ECB should terminate its Asset Purchase Program (APP) now that its declared purpose has been met.


Along with the hawkish ECB minutes, the shared currency has been unable to profit on the Euro Retail Sales' outperformance. Eurostat reported Retail Sales at 5%, up from the preliminary estimate of 4.8 percent but notably below the prior print of 8.4 percent.


On the dollar front, the US dollar index (DXY) is on the lookout for a catalyst that could propel the asset toward the much-anticipated resistance level of 100.00. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have begun to consider restoring policy rates to neutral in the face of rising inflation and the goal of a self-sufficient economy.