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On June 16, CICC pointed out that in the first half of 2025, although policy uncertainty has increased significantly, the global economy as a whole is running smoothly, and other major central banks except the Federal Reserve continue to cut interest rates. In the second half of the year, the economic momentum of the United States and non-US regions will converge, mainly driven by the slowdown in the US economy. Non-US regions have certain advantages due to relatively loose monetary policies and room for repair of output gaps, but the extent of repair in the second half of the year is constrained by high policy uncertainty and the front-end of exports and growth in the first half of the year. Against this background, we are more optimistic about opportunities in non-US regions in the second half of the year, remain relatively optimistic about the European market, and increase the weight of emerging markets. However, we believe that the differentiation of regional performance may be smaller than in the first half of the year, and we recommend a balanced allocation.Market News: The Swiss Embassy, which represents US interests in Tehran, has been closed until further notice.According to Iranian media Rouydad24: In the early hours of Monday local time, the air defense system near the Pasteur Center area was activated. This area is the official residence of Irans supreme leader and president.On June 16, WuXi Biologics announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that on June 14, the companys board of directors was informed by one of the companys major shareholders that it had entered into a block transaction agreement with Morgan Stanley International plc, pursuant to which the placing agent has agreed to place 82,940,000 existing shares of the company held by Biologics Holdings (equivalent to approximately 2.04% of the total issued share capital of the company as of the date of this announcement) at a price of HK$26.60 per share to parties independent of and not connected with the company. Note: WuXi Biologics (02269.HK)s latest closing price is HK$28.On June 16, the article stated that protecting the rights of car owners is a must-answer question for the development of the automobile industry. Looking forward to the future of new energy vehicles, technological progress and consumer rights protection will surely move forward in tandem. All parties work together to build a comprehensive and multi-level rights protection network, so that consumers can buy and use cars with peace of mind, which will surely continue to inject confidence and motivation into the high-quality development of the new energy vehicle industry.

EUR/USD Is Likely to Fall Below 1.0850 Due to Ukraine Crisis and Hawkish ECB Minutes

Drake Hampton

Apr 08, 2022 10:11

  • EUR/USD is aiming for further loss as the DXY strengthens amid renewed talk of restoring neutral rates.

  • The common currency has been unable to benefit from hawkish ECB minutes and solid retail sales.

  • Members of the United Nations Human Rights Council voted in favor of Russia losing its associate status.

 

The EUR/USD pair is on a six-day losing run and is expected to extend losses on Friday as investors anticipate an escalation in the Ukraine issue following Russia's withdrawal from the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Council. The members of the United Nations Human Rights Council agreed to expel Russia after Russian separatists committed war crimes in Bucha, Ukraine. As world nations isolate Russia from key communities, Russian President Vladimir Putin may de-escalate progress negotiations with Ukraine, resulting in an escalation of the Ukraine issue.

 

Meanwhile, the hawkish minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) March monetary policy meeting have done little to bolster the common currency. The majority of ECB policymakers have backed swift action via monetary policy to rein in spiraling inflation. Apart from that, the ECB should terminate its Asset Purchase Program (APP) now that its declared purpose has been met.

 

Along with the hawkish ECB minutes, the shared currency has been unable to profit on the Euro Retail Sales' outperformance. Eurostat reported Retail Sales at 5%, up from the preliminary estimate of 4.8 percent but notably below the prior print of 8.4 percent.

 

On the dollar front, the US dollar index (DXY) is on the lookout for a catalyst that could propel the asset toward the much-anticipated resistance level of 100.00. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have begun to consider restoring policy rates to neutral in the face of rising inflation and the goal of a self-sufficient economy.

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