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On February 8, the median U.S. 1-year inflation forecast rose to its highest level since November 2023. Capital Economics assistant economist Ruben Gargallo Abergus wrote: "This at least adds another reason for the Fed to remain cautious and suspend the easing cycle for a while." Higher inflation expectations are not the only inflation headwinds the Fed is currently facing. Wage growth continued to exceed expectations in January, which could push up inflation in the service sector. Economists expect Fed officials to keep interest rates unchanged at the March 18-19 policy meeting, and may even extend the suspension of rate cuts at the June meeting.The Israeli military says it has struck a Hamas weapons depot in Syria.According to Iranian state media reports, Irans Supreme Leader Khamenei met with visiting senior Hamas leaders in Tehran.On February 8, four large model application products under Baidu Smart Cloud, namely Keyue, Xiling, Yijian and Zhenzhi, were officially launched with access to the new version of the DeepSeek model.On February 8, according to Nikkei Chinese, Japans soaring food prices are dragging down personal consumption. The results of the household survey of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan showed that consumer spending in 2024 actually decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. The "Engel coefficient", which indicates the proportion of food in consumer spending, is 28.3%, a 43-year high. Monthly spending in December 2024 actually increased by 2.7%, and consumption showed a recovery trend. From the perspective of the composition of consumer spending in 2024, the negative factors that actually contributed the most to consumer spending are transportation and communications, which actually decreased by 4.1% year-on-year. Due to the exposure of certification violations by some Japanese automakers, automobile production was suspended for a time, affecting consumption.

EUR/USD Is Likely to Fall Below 1.0850 Due to Ukraine Crisis and Hawkish ECB Minutes

Drake Hampton

Apr 08, 2022 10:11

  • EUR/USD is aiming for further loss as the DXY strengthens amid renewed talk of restoring neutral rates.

  • The common currency has been unable to benefit from hawkish ECB minutes and solid retail sales.

  • Members of the United Nations Human Rights Council voted in favor of Russia losing its associate status.

 

The EUR/USD pair is on a six-day losing run and is expected to extend losses on Friday as investors anticipate an escalation in the Ukraine issue following Russia's withdrawal from the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Council. The members of the United Nations Human Rights Council agreed to expel Russia after Russian separatists committed war crimes in Bucha, Ukraine. As world nations isolate Russia from key communities, Russian President Vladimir Putin may de-escalate progress negotiations with Ukraine, resulting in an escalation of the Ukraine issue.

 

Meanwhile, the hawkish minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) March monetary policy meeting have done little to bolster the common currency. The majority of ECB policymakers have backed swift action via monetary policy to rein in spiraling inflation. Apart from that, the ECB should terminate its Asset Purchase Program (APP) now that its declared purpose has been met.

 

Along with the hawkish ECB minutes, the shared currency has been unable to profit on the Euro Retail Sales' outperformance. Eurostat reported Retail Sales at 5%, up from the preliminary estimate of 4.8 percent but notably below the prior print of 8.4 percent.

 

On the dollar front, the US dollar index (DXY) is on the lookout for a catalyst that could propel the asset toward the much-anticipated resistance level of 100.00. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have begun to consider restoring policy rates to neutral in the face of rising inflation and the goal of a self-sufficient economy.

EUR/USD

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