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Despite Japan's holiday, the USD/JPY has recovered to 143.00 while the Fed and BOJ remain vigilant

Daniel Rogers

Sep 19, 2022 14:48

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In spite of Monday's limited USD/JPY action due to Japan's vacation, the USD/JPY has recovered from intraday lows and is moving closer to recovering 143.00. The gold market is widely predicted to react strongly to the monetary policy meeting between the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) this week (BOJ).

 

Wall Street's major indexes ended the day on a down note, but the S&P 500 Futures are showing slight gains.

 

US Vice President Joe Biden's recent upbeat comments could be to blame. The head of state has also assured the public that inflation will be reduced. Covid developments from China include the unlocking of the city of Dalian in the province of Liaoning, the continued absence of coronavirus cases in Beijing, and the discovery of one such case outside of the Shanghai quarantine zone, up from the absence of any the day before.

 

USD/JPY purchasers appear to be bullish ahead of the significant monetary policy declarations due to President Biden's commitment to help Taiwan in the event that China strikes Taiwan and hawkish expectations for the Fed. It should be noted, however, that speculation over the BOJ's intervention appears to have halted the recent bull market.

 

The University of Michigan's preliminary September consumer sentiment index of 59.5 was up from the preliminary reading of 58.5 in August but still below market estimates of 60.0. The market's expectations of a full one percentage point increase in the Fed rate rose to 18% in light of the improved US statistics, while the probability of a 75 basis point (bps) boost by the Fed increased to above 80%, or 82% at the time of publication.

 

This session of USD/JPY could be slow due to the Japanese holiday and the relatively empty economic calendar. The Fed versus BOJ clash will be key for pair traders to observe this week. The economic forecasts and pronouncements of the various central bank heads are crucial, in addition to the interest rate announcements, which are generally factored in. It's possible that the USD/JPY might drop if Fed Chair Powell disillusions US dollar bulls and the BOJ shows it's willing to defend the yen through intervention.


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