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March 11 (Futures News) – According to foreign media reports, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures fell for the second consecutive trading day on Tuesday, with the benchmark contract closing down 0.3%, mainly due to a sharp decline in international crude oil futures. Trumps prediction that the war with Iran might end soon lowered market expectations for prolonged supply disruptions, causing crude oil prices to plummet by more than 13% on Tuesday. The previous trading day had seen prices surge to their highest level since 2022. Reports indicated that a convoy of at least 25 supertankers was diverting to the Red Sea due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This news also negatively impacted the crude oil market. The USDAs supply and demand report showed that U.S. corn ending stocks for 2025/26 remained unchanged at 2.127 billion bushels, lower than the market expectation of 2.155 billion bushels. Brazils corn production forecast was revised upward by 1 million tons to 132 million tons, while Argentinas production forecast was revised downward by 1 million tons to 52 million tons.On March 11th, according to foreign media reports, soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower on Tuesday, with the benchmark contract down 0.7%, mainly due to a sharp drop in international crude oil futures. International crude oil futures plummeted by over 11% on Tuesday as US President Trumps statement that the war between the US and Iran would end quickly eased concerns about long-term global supply disruptions, putting downward pressure on the Chicago soybean oil market. The USDAs supply and demand report showed that soybean oil production was slightly revised down to 29.92 billion pounds, despite an increase in crush volume forecasts, due to a lower soybean oil extraction rate. Domestic soybean oil consumption in the US was slightly revised down, with a decrease in soybean oil usage in the biofuel industry, but this was largely offset by an increase in usage in the food, feed, and industrial (FSI) sector. The expected soybean oil usage in the biofuel industry was lowered by 800 million pounds to 14 billion pounds, while ending stocks were slightly revised up to 1.782 billion pounds. The 2025/26 US soybean oil price forecast was raised by 2 cents to 55 cents per pound.On March 11th, according to foreign media reports, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed higher on Tuesday, with the benchmark contract rising 0.6%. Despite a sharp drop in international crude oil futures, Chicago soybean futures still closed higher. The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its highly anticipated monthly supply and demand report in the morning, but the market reaction was muted due to minimal adjustments in the data. The 2025/26 U.S. soybean ending stocks forecast remained unchanged at 350 million bushels, higher than analysts forecast of 343 million bushels. Brazilian soybean production was estimated at 180 million tons, while Argentinas production forecast was lowered to 48 million tons from 48.5 million tons last month. Global soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 125.31 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from February. Traders quickly refocused their attention on the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, U.S. spring planting intentions, and upcoming biofuel policies.March 11 – U.S. Priority Refining Corporation announced on March 10 that its new refinery will be located in the Port of Brownsville, Texas. The project, valued at $300 billion, is a partnership with Indias Reliance Industries. U.S. President Trump stated that the new refinery in Brownsville will supply fuel to the U.S. market, enhance national security, increase U.S. energy production, generate billions of dollars in economic benefits, and create thousands of jobs.March 11 – The French presidential office announced that President Macron will host a teleconference of G7 leaders on Wednesday to discuss the Iranian crisis and rising energy prices. G7 governments are weighing how to respond to the sharp rise in oil prices triggered by the war with Iran. G7 energy ministers failed to reach an agreement on releasing strategic petroleum reserves on Tuesday, instead requesting the International Energy Agency (IEA) to assess the situation before taking action.

As US NFP steals the spotlight, we expect the XAU/USD to drop to roughly $1,700 in the near future

Daniel Rogers

Aug 29, 2022 14:38

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After setting a new monthly low of $1,723.44 in the Tokyo session, the gold price (XAU/USD) is now indicating a less confident downward trend. The Federal Reserve (Fed) opted for price stability over growth on Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, therefore the precious metal is projected to continue its downward trajectory for some time.

 

The Federal Reserve has little leeway to decrease the pace of its interest rate hikes in August due to signals of inflationary pressures. While economic activities in the United States showed significant slowing down because of decreasing liquidity in the economy. Market veterans anticipated that the Fed would slow the pace at which it was rising interest rates in light of the two factors. To counteract this, the Fed prioritized maintaining price stability.

 

The future of the United States hinges on the information provided by the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. We anticipate the economic statistics to come in at 290k, which is a decrease from the 528k reported in the previous release. The slowdown in job growth should not be seen as a huge concern by investors. Since the US economy has been at full employment for the past six months, much of the room for new jobs has been eliminated.

 

Gold prices have fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (set at $1,729.35 from the low of $1,680.91 on July 21 to the high of $1,807.93 on August 10) on an hourly time frame. Both the 20-period and the 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are trending downward, adding further filters to the downside at $1,738.08 and $1,745.84, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has moved into the negative zone of 20.00-40.00, indicating further declines ahead.