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On March 22nd, Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist of Yuekai Securities, stated that in the long run, favorable factors supporting gold prices remain. The current plunge in gold prices is not a signal of the end of the bull market, but rather a deep correction during an upward trend. First, global geopolitical risks have become the norm. The Trump administrations foreign policy has led to an increase in the frequency of conflicts and exacerbated chain reactions, which will continue to weaken the credibility of the US dollar. Second, non-US central banks willingness to purchase gold remains strong, which is expected to continue to push up the central price of gold. Under the new normal of geopolitical risks, increasing gold holdings has become an important option for non-US central banks to cope with sanctions risks and enhance financial security. Emerging market central banks are particularly active, and there is still considerable room for reserve growth. Third, if global economic risks shift from "inflation" to "stagnation," gold prices are expected to be supported. High global energy prices, on the one hand, directly erode residents actual consumption power, and on the other hand, may suppress demand and curb inflation by forcing monetary policy tightening, ultimately potentially leading to economic downturn or even recession. In a "stagnation" environment, the strategic value of gold will be further highlighted.March 22 – At the China Development Forum 2026 held today, Finance Minister Lan Foan stated that over the next five years, investment in peoples livelihoods will be increased, and the proportion of public service expenditures in fiscal spending will be appropriately raised. Lan Foan stated that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, my countrys fiscal investment in peoples livelihoods approached 100 trillion yuan, accounting for over 70% of fiscal expenditures, promoting the construction of the worlds largest education system, social security system, and healthcare system. In the next five years, the proportion of government investment in livelihood-related areas will be increased, expanding development space while meeting peoples needs.The South Korean government has appointed Hyun-Song Shin, an economic advisor at the Bank for International Settlements, as the governor of the Bank of Korea.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a 6.2-magnitude earthquake occurred in the Tonga Islands (15.25 degrees south latitude, 172.75 degrees west longitude) at 14:15 on March 22, with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.March 22 – The China Development Forum Annual Meeting 2026 opened this morning in Beijing. More than 100 representatives from international organizations, Fortune Global 500 multinational corporations, and the global business community attended the opening ceremony. During the forum, they will engage in in-depth exchanges and discussions on hot topics such as new forms of consumption, artificial intelligence, and the opening up of the service sector.

As Investors Anticipate a 25 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike, USD/CAD Corrects To Near 1.3700

Daniel Rogers

Mar 22, 2023 15:17

USD:CAD.png 

 

The USD/CAD pair is evidencing a corrective movement after failing to sustain a recovery above 1.3740 during the Asian session. Following a decline in Canada's inflation data, the Canadian dollar rebounded strongly from Monday's level of 1.3660. The falling Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data confirmed that the Bank of Canada (BoC) could maintain its current policy stance.

 

Governor Tiff Macklem of the Bank of Canada maintains the status quo because he believes that the monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to achieve price stability. However, BoC Macklem has left the door open for additional increases if the plan for reducing inflation fails.

 

Statistics Canada reported that the monthly inflation rate has increased by 0.4%, which is less than both the consensus estimate of 0.6% and the previous release of 0.5%. The headline CPI declined from 5.4% (consensus) and 5.8% to 5.2%. (previous release). The annual core CPI, which excludes the costs of fuel and food, decreased to 4.7% from 5.0%, but remained above the 4.4% forecast. The Bank of Canada, which has already increased interest rates to 4.5%, found the overall decline in inflation to be quite impressive.

 

In the interim, S&P500 futures are performing unfavorably after two days of intense buying. The odds favor the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) for the second consecutive meeting. (Fed). As concerns of banking sector turmoil persist, the US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles to maintain its position above 103.20. In addition, analysts from UBS believe that tighter credit standards, economic contraction, and falling inflation could prompt the Fed to reduce interest rates this year.


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