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On August 10, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kallas stated in a media interview that any agreement between the United States and Russia to end the conflict between Ukraine and Ukraine must include Ukraine and the European Union. Kallas stated that any agreement between the United States and Russia must include Ukraine and the European Union, as it concerns the security of Ukraine and all of Europe. Kallas also announced that an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers will be held on August 11 to discuss next steps.Azerbaijan said its energy cooperation with Ukraine would not be interrupted by the Russian attack.On August 10th, the carry trade saw a resurgence among emerging market investors, fueled by bets that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates next month, weakening the dollar and boosting interest in high-yielding currencies. Asset managers from Neuberger Berma to Aberdeen Group are increasing their exposure to currencies such as Brazil, South Africa, and Egypt. They believe a weaker dollar and easing volatility create a fertile environment for this strategy, in which traders borrow lower-yielding currencies and buy higher-yielding ones. Earlier this year, these trades generated double-digit returns, but the momentum took a breather in July as the dollar rebounded. Recent weak US jobs data has reinforced expectations that policymakers will be forced to cut interest rates next month to avoid a recession, fueling a renewed surge in carry trades. Many institutions, from DoubleLine to UBS, have recently joined the bearish chorus on the dollar, stating that "the bearish narrative for the dollar has resurfaced." “The likelihood of a significant dollar rebound is very limited, while overall global growth remains solid,” said Urquieta, co-head of emerging market debt at Neuberger Berman. He prefers carry trades in South Africa, Turkey, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia and South Korea.German Chancellor Merz: "Hope and assume" Zelensky will attend the Alaska talks.U.S. Vice President Vance: The United States will maintain dialogue with Ukraine and Zelensky.

As China's Inflation Misses Forecasts, NZD/USD Sinks Below 0.6320

Alina Haynes

Feb 10, 2023 11:53

 NZD:USD.png

 

As a result of China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releasing weaker-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Jan) data, the NZD/USD pair has dropped precipitously below 0.6320. The annual inflation rate is 2.1%, which is below the consensus estimate of 2.2% but above the prior figure of 1.8%. The monthly inflation rate declined by 0.8%, but inflationary pressures rose by 0.7%.

 

China's Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed a 0.8% deflation, which is 0.8% worse than the 0.5% predicted deflation and 0.7% previous deflation. It indicates that enterprises are aggressively discounting their goods and services at the facility gates. This is symptomatic of weak household demand.

 

The Chinese government and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) may pursue expansionary stimulus and monetary policies, respectively, as the Chinese economy recovers following the lifting of economic regulations.

 

There is little doubt that the Chinese economy will experience a rise in inflationary pressures as a result of further stimulus driving commodities in a bullish path. After overcoming the pandemic, western and other Asian nations have witnessed a similar circumstance.

 

Notably, New Zealand is one of China's most important trading partners, and lower inflation will require further assistance, which will benefit the New Zealand Dollar.

 

Meanwhile, the risk mood is negative as investors become anxious in advance of next week's release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the United States. S&P500 futures ended Thursday's session on a negative note, as the market thinks that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon hike interest rates. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has difficulty maintaining a value greater than 103.00.

 

Following the release of January's good employment report, an unanticipated rise in inflation cannot be ruled out. Consumer spending can be stimulated by an increase in consumer expenditure, which may occur from a rise in employment.