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On October 29th, Bank of America predicted that the Bank of Japan will maintain its cautious policy stance at its October meeting, but will announce its next rate hike in January as policymakers balance stubbornly high inflation with a fragile recovery in domestic demand. The bank said it expects the Bank of Japan to hold interest rates steady this week while adopting hawkish rhetoric, signaling confidence that underlying inflation remains above target. This would be a hawkish hold, paving the way for a possible rate hike early next year. The current base case forecast is for the central bank to raise rates by 25 basis points in January 2026, citing gradual improvements in wage growth and services sector inflation. While the yen could strengthen again later in the year if the Bank of Japan signals stronger tightening, Bank of America noted that short-term dynamics—including the US-Japan interest rate differential and the political atmosphere surrounding the summit—support the dollars continued resilience.On October 29th, the Tianyancha App showed that Xiaomi Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. was recently approved to register the software copyright for "AI Xiaosu - Smart Intelligent Body Assistant System" with version number V1.0. The company was established in November 2021, with Lei Jun as the legal representative, and registered capital of 1 billion RMB. Its business scope includes the manufacturing of new energy vehicles, the technical research and development of complete vehicles and parts, and the research and development of motors and their control systems. It is wholly owned by Xiaomi Technology Co., Ltd.According to futures market news on October 29th, as of the week ending October 25th, Japanese commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 377,644 kiloliters from the previous week to 10,027,202 kiloliters. Japanese gasoline inventories decreased by 16,721 kiloliters from the previous week to 1,603,954 kiloliters. Japanese kerosene inventories decreased by 91,715 kiloliters from the previous week to 2,742,806 kiloliters. The average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 91.2%, compared to 86.2% the previous week.On October 29, the overnight shibor was 1.4140%, down 5.50 basis points; the 7-day shibor was 1.5120%, down 1.80 basis points; the 14-day shibor was 1.5590%, down 8.80 basis points; the January shibor was 1.5560%, down 0.10 basis points; the March shibor was 1.5990%, the same as the previous trading day.Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi: Agreed to work with U.S. Defense Secretary Hergsays to steadily implement the relocation of the Futenma Air Station in Okinawa.

Analysis of the NZD/USD Price indicates a continuation of gains towards 0.65

Daniel Rogers

Jan 18, 2023 15:02

 NZD:USD.png

 

The NZD/USD pair is oscillating within a narrow range near 0.6430 in the early Asian session. Despite the market's risk aversion, the New Zealand dollar has traded sideways after reclaiming the monthly high of 0.6437. In reaction to Tom Barkin's hawkish comments about the Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank, S&P500 futures are exhibiting greater losses, indicating investors' diminishing appetite for risk.

 

Following a V-shaped recovery, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned sideways at 102,000 and is expected to extend gains on a risk aversion theme. In addition, higher 10-year US Treasury yields would certainly provide safe-haven investments a new lease of life.

 

After one hour of consolidation, the NZD/USD pair has broken out of the Bullish Pennant chart pattern, indicating that the rising trend will continue. Participants typically initiate long positions during the consolidation period of a chart pattern, preferring to enter an auction once a bullish bias has been established.

 

Adding to the upward filters, the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have resumed their upward trend at 0.6415 and 0.6401, respectively.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) continues to struggle to enter the positive zone between 60.00 and 80.00. The occurrence of a similar event will produce bullish momentum.

 

For greater gains, the Kiwi asset must beat Tuesday's high of 0.6439, which will rocket it to December 15's high of 0.6470, then December 13's high of 0.6514.

 

Alternately, a breach below Monday's low of 0.6361 will weaken the New Zealand Dollar and push the Kiwi asset towards January 12's low of 0.6304. A breach below this level will expose the asset to more losses approaching the low of 0.6263 on December 28.