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August 27th - According to a summary of meeting minutes, European Central Bank (ECB) officials discussed whether a "moderately restrictive" monetary policy was needed to ensure inflation falls back to the 2% target. The minutes indicate that some officials would have supported last months interest rate hike. However, the minutes noted that given the high degree of uncertainty regarding the sustainability of inflation, "all members were willing to support the decision to maintain the policy rate unchanged." Currently, Eurozone inflation is hovering around 3%, well above the ECBs 2% target, while economic growth is stronger than expected.Federal Reserves Goolsby: Tariffs and war-related price increases pose challenges to the Federal Reserve.In a joint statement, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, and Sweden stated that the new common EU loan is not a solution to the budget deficit. 1. According to Mysteel statistics, as of this week (August 27), the spot inventory of lithium ore from 33 sample lithium ore traders was 149,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to last week, of which the available inventory was 102,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons compared to last week. 2. According to Longzhong Informations production cost calculation model, the average weekly profit for float glass using natural gas as fuel was -164.02 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.50 yuan/ton compared to last week; the average weekly profit for float glass using coal as fuel was -87.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.47 yuan/ton compared to last week; and the average weekly profit for float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was -216.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.64 yuan/ton compared to last week. 3. According to Mutian Technology, on August 23, affected by the heavy rainfall of Typhoon Zitan, the sugarcane area under the jurisdiction of Daxin Sugar Company suffered from flooding, with some sugarcane fields submerged and sugarcane lodging and other damage. 4. Market news: Russia has indicated it may retaliate against the UK for its support of Kyiv, targeting British military objectives both inside and outside Ukraine. 5. Zhang Wenbin, Head of China Market Development at the World Platinum Investment Council, believes the logic of a long-term platinum supply shortage remains unchanged. Considering limited new mining capacity and resilient demand throughout 2026, the market will still face a supply-demand gap of 9.2 tons. Global visible platinum inventories are at historically low levels. Before 2029, platinum will maintain an average annual supply-demand gap of approximately 19 tons. 6. Data from Enterprise Singapore (ESG) shows that as of the week ending August 26, Singapore fuel oil inventories rose by 817,000 barrels to a three-week high of 19.24 million barrels. Singapore light distillate inventories rose by 539,000 barrels to a two-week high of 11.515 million barrels. Singapore middle distillate inventories increased by 153,000 barrels to a two-week high of 8.427 million barrels. 7. According to CCTV News, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian hosted a regular press conference. A reporter asked about high-level interactions between China and the US. Lin Jian responded that both sides are maintaining communication regarding arrangements for interactions between their leaders this year. 8. At a regular press conference held on the 27th, Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Huang Ling, in response to a question about the US government considering imposing an additional 7.5% tariff on goods imported from China, said that the USs initiation of Section 301 investigations against 16 economies, including China, under the pretext of "overcapacity," politicizes trade issues and is a typical example of unilateralism and protectionism, which China firmly opposes. We will continue to closely monitor and comprehensively assess subsequent US actions and reserve the right to take all necessary measures. 9. According to Longzhong Information, as of August 27, 2026, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide was 74.049 million weight boxes, a decrease of 365,000 weight boxes compared to the previous period (-0.49%), and an increase of 18.35% year-on-year. The inventory days were 33.9 days, a decrease of 0.2 days compared to the previous period. 10. According to Mysteel, as of the week ending August 27, rebar production was 1.7308 million tons, a decrease of 73,000 tons from the previous week, a drop of 4.05%; rebar mill inventory was 1.6333 million tons, a decrease of 148,200 tons from the previous week, a drop of 8.32%; rebar social inventory was 5.1132 million tons, an increase of 66,200 tons from the previous week, an increase of 1.31%; and rebar apparent demand was 1.8128 million tons, a decrease of 148,800 tons from the previous week, a drop of 7.59%. 11. According to foreign media reports, traders said that approximately 7 to 8 million barrels of oil are currently being shipped out of the Strait of Hormuz daily, higher than the approximately 4 million barrels per day in mid-July, equivalent to about three-quarters of pre-war levels. Vortexa stated on Monday that oil flows through the waterway are approaching 10 million barrels per day. 12. As of August 27, methanol inventory at East China ports was 381,400 tons, down from 382,700 tons on August 20, a decrease of 1,300 tons. 13. Federal Reserve Chairman Schmid stated that with inflation persistently above the Feds 2% target, the current interest rate level has not dampened the US economy. Schmid said, "For me, I think short-term interest rates are probably on the loose side. So, we still have work to do."Federal Reserves Goolsby: We are trying to figure out whether the inflation shock will continue.

Analysis of the NZD/USD Price indicates a continuation of gains towards 0.65

Daniel Rogers

Jan 18, 2023 15:02

 NZD:USD.png

 

The NZD/USD pair is oscillating within a narrow range near 0.6430 in the early Asian session. Despite the market's risk aversion, the New Zealand dollar has traded sideways after reclaiming the monthly high of 0.6437. In reaction to Tom Barkin's hawkish comments about the Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank, S&P500 futures are exhibiting greater losses, indicating investors' diminishing appetite for risk.

 

Following a V-shaped recovery, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned sideways at 102,000 and is expected to extend gains on a risk aversion theme. In addition, higher 10-year US Treasury yields would certainly provide safe-haven investments a new lease of life.

 

After one hour of consolidation, the NZD/USD pair has broken out of the Bullish Pennant chart pattern, indicating that the rising trend will continue. Participants typically initiate long positions during the consolidation period of a chart pattern, preferring to enter an auction once a bullish bias has been established.

 

Adding to the upward filters, the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have resumed their upward trend at 0.6415 and 0.6401, respectively.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) continues to struggle to enter the positive zone between 60.00 and 80.00. The occurrence of a similar event will produce bullish momentum.

 

For greater gains, the Kiwi asset must beat Tuesday's high of 0.6439, which will rocket it to December 15's high of 0.6470, then December 13's high of 0.6514.

 

Alternately, a breach below Monday's low of 0.6361 will weaken the New Zealand Dollar and push the Kiwi asset towards January 12's low of 0.6304. A breach below this level will expose the asset to more losses approaching the low of 0.6263 on December 28.