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Spains manufacturing PMI for July was 50.2, in line with expectations of 50 and the previous reading of 49.7.August 3 – Swiss inflation slowed to its lowest level in four months in July, showing resilience amid rapidly rising costs driven by energy prices across Europe. Data from the Swiss National Statistical Office showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% year-on-year in July, down from 0.5% in June and in line with economists median forecast. Cost pressures from rising diesel and heating oil prices were offset by lower prices for a range of goods and services, including clothing and car rentals. Core inflation, excluding volatile factors such as energy, remained at 0.3%. The latest data contrasts with the Swiss National Banks (SNB) previous forecast of a moderate, temporary acceleration in inflation. According to sources, based on the current weak inflation trend, the SNB internally expects interest rates to remain at zero until the end of next year, barring any new shocks.Futures News, August 3rd: Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Energy and Chemical Warehouse Receipts and Changes on August 3rd: 1. Pulp futures warehouse receipts: 356,739 tons, an increase of 3,672 tons compared to the previous trading day; 2. Pulp futures mill warehouse receipts: 20,000 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 3. Offset paper futures warehouse receipts: 2,758 tons, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; 4. Offset paper futures mill warehouse receipts: 6,520 tons, a decrease of 80 tons compared to the previous trading day; 5. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 1,696 tons. 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 6. Petroleum asphalt futures warehouse receipts: 11,290 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 7. Petroleum asphalt futures factory warehouse receipts: 18,210 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 8. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts: 2,961,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day; 9. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 5,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 10. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures factory warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.August 3 – Following the Houthi threat that disrupted regional shipping, Yanbu, a key Saudi export port on the Red Sea coast, appeared to be experiencing its busiest day yet. Meanwhile, an increasing number of ships turned off their tracking signals as they passed through the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Satellite imagery showed five Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) docked at Yanbus oil loading terminal on Saturday, potentially marking the ports most active day since the Iranian-backed Houthi blockade of Saudi ports two weeks ago. These photos were taken by the EUs Sentinel-2 satellite. Because the satellite only passes through the area every few days, continuous monitoring is not possible. Yanbu has become a crucial node for Saudi Arabia to maintain large-scale crude oil exports after the war with Iran severely impacted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia bypasses the Strait of Hormuz by transporting millions of barrels of crude oil daily to the Red Sea via pipelines for export to global markets.Shares of UK-listed energy companies fell, with Ithaca Energy down 4.1%, BP down 2.9%, and Shell down 2.1%.

Analysis of the NZD/USD Price indicates a continuation of gains towards 0.65

Daniel Rogers

Jan 18, 2023 15:02

 NZD:USD.png

 

The NZD/USD pair is oscillating within a narrow range near 0.6430 in the early Asian session. Despite the market's risk aversion, the New Zealand dollar has traded sideways after reclaiming the monthly high of 0.6437. In reaction to Tom Barkin's hawkish comments about the Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank, S&P500 futures are exhibiting greater losses, indicating investors' diminishing appetite for risk.

 

Following a V-shaped recovery, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned sideways at 102,000 and is expected to extend gains on a risk aversion theme. In addition, higher 10-year US Treasury yields would certainly provide safe-haven investments a new lease of life.

 

After one hour of consolidation, the NZD/USD pair has broken out of the Bullish Pennant chart pattern, indicating that the rising trend will continue. Participants typically initiate long positions during the consolidation period of a chart pattern, preferring to enter an auction once a bullish bias has been established.

 

Adding to the upward filters, the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have resumed their upward trend at 0.6415 and 0.6401, respectively.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) continues to struggle to enter the positive zone between 60.00 and 80.00. The occurrence of a similar event will produce bullish momentum.

 

For greater gains, the Kiwi asset must beat Tuesday's high of 0.6439, which will rocket it to December 15's high of 0.6470, then December 13's high of 0.6514.

 

Alternately, a breach below Monday's low of 0.6361 will weaken the New Zealand Dollar and push the Kiwi asset towards January 12's low of 0.6304. A breach below this level will expose the asset to more losses approaching the low of 0.6263 on December 28.

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