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August 28th - According to the Associated Press, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh said on Friday that inflation remains too high. He hinted that the central bank may need to raise interest rates in the coming months to reduce inflation. This statement more clearly reflects his view on the economic situation than his previous remarks. In a prepared speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Warsh acknowledged that recent inflation data indicated a slowdown in inflation, but "these data do not suggest a significant improvement in the overall trend." "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward the target, or there is still a lot of work to be done." On Friday, Warsh remained skeptical of forward guidance and even declined to reveal his overall thinking on interest rate policy. However, he did point out that current interest rate levels are not hindering economic activity.On August 28th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated on Friday that if policymakers are not confident that inflation is falling back to 2% "at a clear and sufficiently fast pace," the Fed "still has work to do." This suggests that if price pressures do not improve, the Fed may raise interest rates next. Warsh explicitly stated that he still adheres to the Feds long-standing policy path of managing inflation by adjusting interest rates. This significantly increases the likelihood of a further rate hike by the Fed, which could potentially create a rift with President Trump, who has long sought rate cuts. This statement essentially eliminates the ambiguity previously left. At a press conference at the end of July, Warsh declined to comment extensively on whether a rate hike was needed to address the sharp rise in inflation this year, which has been above the Feds target for more than five consecutive years.The main liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) contract rose by 2.00% during the day, currently trading at 5883.00 yuan/ton.New York gold futures fell below $4,600 per ounce, down 1.21% on the day.On August 28th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh warned that inflation has not shown a meaningful slowdown, stating that policymakers must be confident that inflation is moving in the right direction, otherwise the central bank "has more work to do." Warsh reiterated that the Fed will bring the inflation rate back to its 2% target. He stated that this is a clear and fixed target. Warsh said, "My standard is that we must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward our target, and the pace must be clear enough and fast enough. Otherwise, we have more work to do. Thats our responsibility." Warsh also stated that current financial conditions are not restrictive, and interest rates are the Feds "primary tool" for fulfilling its mandate.

Analysis of the NZD/USD Price indicates a continuation of gains towards 0.65

Daniel Rogers

Jan 18, 2023 15:02

 NZD:USD.png

 

The NZD/USD pair is oscillating within a narrow range near 0.6430 in the early Asian session. Despite the market's risk aversion, the New Zealand dollar has traded sideways after reclaiming the monthly high of 0.6437. In reaction to Tom Barkin's hawkish comments about the Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank, S&P500 futures are exhibiting greater losses, indicating investors' diminishing appetite for risk.

 

Following a V-shaped recovery, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned sideways at 102,000 and is expected to extend gains on a risk aversion theme. In addition, higher 10-year US Treasury yields would certainly provide safe-haven investments a new lease of life.

 

After one hour of consolidation, the NZD/USD pair has broken out of the Bullish Pennant chart pattern, indicating that the rising trend will continue. Participants typically initiate long positions during the consolidation period of a chart pattern, preferring to enter an auction once a bullish bias has been established.

 

Adding to the upward filters, the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have resumed their upward trend at 0.6415 and 0.6401, respectively.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) continues to struggle to enter the positive zone between 60.00 and 80.00. The occurrence of a similar event will produce bullish momentum.

 

For greater gains, the Kiwi asset must beat Tuesday's high of 0.6439, which will rocket it to December 15's high of 0.6470, then December 13's high of 0.6514.

 

Alternately, a breach below Monday's low of 0.6361 will weaken the New Zealand Dollar and push the Kiwi asset towards January 12's low of 0.6304. A breach below this level will expose the asset to more losses approaching the low of 0.6263 on December 28.