Jan 18, 2023 15:02
The NZD/USD pair is oscillating within a narrow range near 0.6430 in the early Asian session. Despite the market's risk aversion, the New Zealand dollar has traded sideways after reclaiming the monthly high of 0.6437. In reaction to Tom Barkin's hawkish comments about the Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank, S&P500 futures are exhibiting greater losses, indicating investors' diminishing appetite for risk.
Following a V-shaped recovery, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned sideways at 102,000 and is expected to extend gains on a risk aversion theme. In addition, higher 10-year US Treasury yields would certainly provide safe-haven investments a new lease of life.
After one hour of consolidation, the NZD/USD pair has broken out of the Bullish Pennant chart pattern, indicating that the rising trend will continue. Participants typically initiate long positions during the consolidation period of a chart pattern, preferring to enter an auction once a bullish bias has been established.
Adding to the upward filters, the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have resumed their upward trend at 0.6415 and 0.6401, respectively.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) continues to struggle to enter the positive zone between 60.00 and 80.00. The occurrence of a similar event will produce bullish momentum.
For greater gains, the Kiwi asset must beat Tuesday's high of 0.6439, which will rocket it to December 15's high of 0.6470, then December 13's high of 0.6514.
Alternately, a breach below Monday's low of 0.6361 will weaken the New Zealand Dollar and push the Kiwi asset towards January 12's low of 0.6304. A breach below this level will expose the asset to more losses approaching the low of 0.6263 on December 28.