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Real-time News
February 5th – Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian held a regular press conference. The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the US and Russia expired today. What is Chinas comment on the expiration of this treaty? Furthermore, the US has stated that it is necessary to establish a framework that includes China in advancing nuclear arms control. What is Chinas position on this? How should China play its role as a major power in advancing nuclear arms control? Lin Jian stated that China has always adopted an extremely cautious and responsible attitude on nuclear weapons issues. China has consistently adhered to a self-defense nuclear strategy, abided by the policy of no first use of nuclear weapons, and unconditionally committed not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones. Regarding the expiration of the New START Treaty between the US and Russia, Lin Jian pointed out that China regrets the expiration of the New START Treaty. The treaty is of great significance to maintaining global strategic stability, and the international community is generally concerned that its expiration will have a negative impact on the international nuclear arms control system and the global nuclear order.Hong Kong-listed biopharmaceutical stocks rose amid volatility, with Innovent Biologics (09969.HK) surging over 4%, and other stocks such as Zai Lab (09688.HK), WuXi AppTec (02359.HK), WuXi Biologics (02269.HK), and Henlius Biotech (02696.HK) following suit.Ukrainian President Zelensky: 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in action since February 2022.Hong Kong-listed new energy vehicle stocks fluctuated higher, with NIO (09866.HK) and Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) both rising by more than 3%, and Leapmotor (09863.HK), Li Auto (02015.HK), BYD (01211.HK), XPeng Motors (09868.HK) and other stocks following suit.1. Barclays: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged and may not make a clear statement on the timing of future rate cuts. A rate cut could come as early as next month, with lower inflation expectations and a weak labor market reinforcing the view that rates will be cut. 2. Goldman Sachs: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged. The vote was 7-2, and a rate cut could be more widely supported. Bailey may reiterate that there is room for rate cuts. A weak labor market will push for rate cuts to 3% in March, June, and September. 3. Capital Economics: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged, or may suggest that the next rate cut is not imminent and that rates may not fall significantly. If the prediction that CPI will fall below 2.0% comes true, then interest rates will fall to 3% instead of 3.5%. 4. Mitsubishi UFJ: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged due to stronger economic growth momentum. The more likely scenario now is a rate cut in May and another in August, bringing the benchmark rate down to 3.25%. 5. HSBC: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Unlike the European Central Bank, the Bank of England seems less concerned about the deflationary effects of further dollar depreciation, which could support the pound against the euro in the short term. 6. Scotiabank: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Since last August, the cycle of switching between rate cuts and maintaining rates has become longer, and the bank may lack a sense of urgency to cut rates. One or two more rate cuts are expected this year. 7. DBS Bank: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Bank of England Governor Bailey previously warned that future easing decisions would be more cautious and dependent on economic data. The pound/dollar should maintain a weak bias. 8. Oxford Economics: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged. If upcoming data gives the bank more confidence that wage growth is cooling, the next rate cut is likely to occur at the April meeting. 9. JPMorgan Chase: Expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with a 7-2 vote. The bank will raise its short-term unemployment forecast and lower its recent average wage growth and inflation forecasts, which will provide data support for a rate cut in March. 10. Nordea: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged due to more cautious wording in the previous forward guidance. The first rate cut is anticipated in March, but recent stronger growth momentum and risks favor a delay to April. 11. Trade France: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged and signal a gradual approach to rate cuts. Key swing trader Bailey is expected to support holding rates steady. A rate cut is expected at the end of April, with a high probability of two more cuts this year. 12. Morgan Stanley: Expects to keep interest rates unchanged, with a 6-3 vote and a riskier 5-4 outcome. Policy guidance is not expected to change. The terminal interest rate is expected to be 3%, with rate cuts in March, July, and November.
