EUR/USD
1.18678
-0.021%
Gold
5004.98
1.692%
Oil
62.596
-0.241%
USD/JPY
152.881
0.097%
GBP/USD
1.36329
0.081%
GBP/JPY
208.425
0.187%
Real-time News
February 13th - Regan Capital analyst Skyler Weinand stated that weak US inflation data in January will not increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the coming months, due to stronger-than-expected labor market data released earlier this week – 130,000 new jobs were added in January, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. The Fed "simply cannot cut rates right now, given that the economy has just created six-figure jobs." Weinand expects the Senate to confirm Warsh as Fed Chair, succeeding Powell, but doubts his ability to build consensus on rate cuts. "We may not see any changes to the Feds policy rate this year." The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors are currently pricing in at least two rate cuts this year.February 13th - Lower-than-expected inflation data released on Friday sent U.S. Treasury prices soaring, fueling investor expectations for three Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note, most sensitive to central bank policy changes, fell as much as 6 basis points to 3.40%, a new low since October, before recovering slightly. Following the data release, traders priced in a rate cut of approximately 63 basis points this year—implying a roughly 50% probability of a third 25-basis-point cut before the end of the year, on top of the two already priced-in cuts, compared to 58 basis points priced in on Thursday. Earlier this week, traders had already stopped fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut mid-year in response to the January non-farm payroll data, postponing their bets to July. Wall Street banks that had previously predicted a March rate cut have also pushed their expectations back to later in 2026.February 13 - Paul Ashworth, chief economist for North America at Capital Economics, said that it is important to emphasize that although the core PCE inflation measure is usually about 0.3 percentage points lower than the CPI on average, our calculations show that the core PCE inflation measure, which is preferred by the Federal Reserve, rebounded to 3.0% in January.February 13th - Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, stated that the current situation is still insufficient to justify a near-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The continued strength of the labor market provides policymakers with a reason to maintain interest rates, and further slowing of inflation in the second half of the year, as the impact of tariffs fades, should reopen the door to further easing.Christopher Hodge, an analyst at Natixis: In the coming months, we expect inflation to continue to be higher than expected, but not to accelerate, which will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on weak labor market data.
