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On August 12th, a Reuters Tankan survey showed that Japans manufacturing confidence index rose to 18 in August from 13 in July, reaching its highest level since March 2026. During the same period, supported by strong domestic consumption, the non-manufacturing confidence index also rose from 25 to 28. The outlook for the next three months suggests that market sentiment will ease somewhat. Semiconductor-related demand was the main driver of the market rally, especially the significant jump in the chemical and metal machinery sub-indices, indicating that the strong momentum in the semiconductor supply chain is continuing to spread across Japans entire industrial base, rather than remaining concentrated in the hands of a few chip manufacturers. The manufacturing index reaching its highest level since March indicates that the previous drag on chip-related exporters from global trade uncertainty has largely subsided. In contrast, the transportation equipment industry index remained at 0, showing that the automotive industry has not yet significantly benefited from the recovery trend.National Australia Bank: We still expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep the cash rate unchanged for the remainder of 2026, and the first rate cut is still expected to take place around mid-2027.On August 12th, Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis stated that the Reserve Bank of Australias (RBA) decision to keep interest rates unchanged was in line with market expectations, but the change in its policy guidance is more noteworthy than the rate decision itself. Westpac believes that the RBAs statement that it is prepared to raise rates "only if upside risks to inflation materialize" is clearer than the broader "if necessary" wording used in the May meeting. Even without explicit statements, the RBA has effectively lowered its rate hike expectations. Westpacs base case has shifted to maintaining interest rates unchanged until the middle of next year. This view is based on inflation and labor market data, both of which are lower than the RBAs May forecasts. Nevertheless, Westpac cautiously describes this as a "hawkish pause" rather than a "loosening of interest rate controls." Further rate hikes are still possible for the remainder of the year, although less likely, depending primarily on the transmission effects of energy-related costs and developments in the Middle East.Japans Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Sentiment Index for August was 18, down from 13 in the previous month.Japans Reuters Tankan non-manufacturing business sentiment index for August was 28, down from 25 in the previous month.

Analysis of the NZD/USD Price indicates a continuation of gains towards 0.65

Daniel Rogers

Jan 18, 2023 15:02

 NZD:USD.png

 

The NZD/USD pair is oscillating within a narrow range near 0.6430 in the early Asian session. Despite the market's risk aversion, the New Zealand dollar has traded sideways after reclaiming the monthly high of 0.6437. In reaction to Tom Barkin's hawkish comments about the Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank, S&P500 futures are exhibiting greater losses, indicating investors' diminishing appetite for risk.

 

Following a V-shaped recovery, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned sideways at 102,000 and is expected to extend gains on a risk aversion theme. In addition, higher 10-year US Treasury yields would certainly provide safe-haven investments a new lease of life.

 

After one hour of consolidation, the NZD/USD pair has broken out of the Bullish Pennant chart pattern, indicating that the rising trend will continue. Participants typically initiate long positions during the consolidation period of a chart pattern, preferring to enter an auction once a bullish bias has been established.

 

Adding to the upward filters, the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have resumed their upward trend at 0.6415 and 0.6401, respectively.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) continues to struggle to enter the positive zone between 60.00 and 80.00. The occurrence of a similar event will produce bullish momentum.

 

For greater gains, the Kiwi asset must beat Tuesday's high of 0.6439, which will rocket it to December 15's high of 0.6470, then December 13's high of 0.6514.

 

Alternately, a breach below Monday's low of 0.6361 will weaken the New Zealand Dollar and push the Kiwi asset towards January 12's low of 0.6304. A breach below this level will expose the asset to more losses approaching the low of 0.6263 on December 28.

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